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Old 04-26-2014, 09:51 PM   Topic Starter
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Jadeveon Clowney - Atlanta via Houston?

Alright, is it worth it?

Is it worth it for the Falcons to jump up from #6 overall to #1 overall to draft Jadeveon Clowney?

My elementary math skills at work (I figured I wouldn't need my degrees to work on this one), show that this is what it would take (approximately):

Atlanta gives up (likely worst case):

2014 - Round 1, Selection 6
2014 - Round 2, Selection 37
2014 - Round 3, Selection 68
2014 - Round 4, Selection 103
2015 - Round 1
2015 - Round 3

Using the traditional midpoint of the subsequent round valuation method for future picks, this trade yields 2,958 points given up by Atlanta

Using a round minimum valuation method for future picks, this trade yields 3,174 points given up by Atlanta

So, dependent upon how the teams work out the deal, Atlanta may or may not have to give up a 3rd in 2015 and they may also not have to give up the 4th this year but would have to give up at least a 5th.

Best case scenario:

2014 - Round 1, Selection 6
2014 - Round 2, Selection 37
2014 - Round 3, Selection 68
2014 - Round 5 Selection 147
2015 - Round 1

This scenario would result in 3,002.6 points given up by Atlanta using the round minimum method.

So, in either scenario, Atlanta is giving up a truckload of picks, and I'd venture to say they may agree somewhere in the middle of these two scenarios.

My personal opinion is that this would be far too much to give up for a player I'm very luke warm on. I realize this whole "freak" thing, but Vernon Gholston was a freak that produced far more in college than Clowney.
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Old 04-26-2014, 09:53 PM   #2
Hoover Hoover is offline
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I don't think they need Clowney to win a super bowl, so I would not give up that much.
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Old 04-26-2014, 10:04 PM   #3
BryanBusby BryanBusby is offline
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I don't think Clowney is worth that much of an investment.
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Old 04-26-2014, 10:02 PM   #4
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If they still ran a 4-3.....I'd do it. 3-4? No thanks.
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Old 04-26-2014, 11:52 PM   #5
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That's a lot of work to put in to come to the foregone conclusion that there is no way a team gives up that much to move up in the draft unless it's run by Dan Snyder.
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Old 04-26-2014, 11:54 PM   #6
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saccopoo View Post
That's a lot of work to put in to come to the foregone conclusion that there is no way a team gives up that much to move up in the draft unless it's run by Dan Snyder.
Atlanta's trade to move up to get Julio Jones really wasn't all that different, and then the question becomes: will they forego depth once again to target a top prospect?
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Old 04-26-2014, 11:58 PM   #7
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Good thing Atlanta came up with that last second win against Washington!
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Old 04-27-2014, 06:02 AM   #8
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Stay at 6 and take BPA would serve them better.
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Old 05-01-2014, 09:48 PM   #9
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@ProFootballTalk: Report: Falcons not interested in trading up to No. 1 for Clowney http://t.co/LBsRdEIztM
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Old 05-02-2014, 07:48 AM   #10
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:16 AM   #11
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