Chiefs QB Non-controversy

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 05:32 PM

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/1...and-the-qb-non

Since the bye week, Smith is throwing deep on 20 percent of his attempts. He is 4-for-13 for 120 yards, with one touchdown. A 30 percent completion rate might not sound like much, but that's what you expect from all quarterbacks in the league on deep balls. If anyone is consistently completing more than 40 percent, you get suspicious.

There is a slight discrepancy in the PFR and PFF deep ball definition. But for our purposes, this is negligible. Because the point is that the Chiefs did not start dialing it up more, or throwing it more, just because Foles was in the game. The game-plan was: let's challenge deep and focus on Kelce. Both Smith and Foles did just that. And both did it at a rate-per-attempt that would be among the most aggressive units in the league, if PFF's numbers are any indication.

Against the Colts, Smith was 4-of-5 for 66 yards to Travis Kelce. He targeted Kelce on 26 percent of attempts.
Foles was 3-of-5 for 35 yards to Travis Kelce. He targeted Kelce on 23 percent of attempts.

Alex Smith >> Foles > Bray

Foles can definitely beat the Jags by at least 10 if he plays smart. If he's gambling on these deep balls come Sunday without having a well-rounded game we could be in for a very, very rough afternoon.

eDave · 11-02-2016, 05:28 PM

Spamming the board.

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 11-02-2016, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eDave

Spamming the board.

Good article and a thread with a different take. Far from spam.

**TimBone** · 11-02-2016, 05:29 PM

You're looking pretty insecure right now. We could have done without another thread.

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 11-02-2016, 05:30 PM

Just As DJLN has been saying all over the threads...

"This is why Smith sets interception records and completion records. A lot of people said Smith's low interception rate was unsustainable when he nearly set the NFL record in 2011. But they didn't understand that it was completely sustainable because it wasn't due to luck, or to some statistical anomaly, but due to scheme. Smith was throwing short. Those passes are easier to complete and less likely to be picked off. The reverse is true of guys who throw deep all the time. Low interception rates and high completion rates are unsustainable when you throw deep. If much of a QB's success is from the deep game, then that QB's success is also unsustainable."

WhiteWhale · 11-02-2016, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

Just As DJLN has been saying all over the threads...

"This is why Smith sets interception records and completion records. A lot of people said Smith's low interception rate was unsustainable when he nearly set the NFL record in 2011. But they didn't understand that it was completely sustainable because it wasn't due to luck, or to some statistical anomaly, but due to scheme. Smith was throwing short. Those passes are easier to complete and less likely to be picked off. The reverse is true of guys who throw deep all the time. Low interception rates and high completion rates are unsustainable when you throw deep. If much of a QB's success is from the deep game, then that QB's success is also unsustainable."

This makes quite the claim that makes sense theoretically, but totally falls on it's face when you look at the NFL.

Primarily because it appears to define success exclusively as 'not throwing interceptions'.

While it's a BIT more complicated than that, otherwise the most conservative QB's would consistently be the most successful. I mean, there's half a century of evidence that this is a bad hypothesis.

That is to say nothing about Foles vs. Smith. I'm just not getting into that on this forum.

Reerun_KC · 11-02-2016, 05:30 PM

Spamming and trying to stir up junk with more repetitive threads.

Mr. Laz · 11-02-2016, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Spamming and trying to stir up junk with more repetitive threads.

Wait a minute

If we don't allow spamming bait posts then about 40% of the posters on this place are gone.

Alex Smith haters have spammed this place for the last 3 years with endless post designed to bait and start shit.

suddenly that's not allowed?

**Ming the Merciless** · 11-02-2016, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

Wait a minute

If we don't allow spamming bait posts then about 40% of the posters on this place are gone.

Alex Smith haters have spammed this place for the last 3 years with endless post designed to bait and start shit.

suddenly that's not allowed?

He was being sarcastic you brain dead moron

**Ming the Merciless** · 11-02-2016, 05:32 PM

Lol Foles had 4 deep bombs in one half

eDave · 11-02-2016, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

Lol Foles had 4 deep bombs in one half

Yes. Anomaly as we knew that was open at first. Again, they planned for Smith. We've seen plenty of backups come in and do well for this very reason. In the long run, they settle back to the bottom. Same will happen with Foles.

Reerun_KC · 11-02-2016, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eDave

Yes. Anomaly as we knew that was open at first. Again, they planned for Smith. We've seen plenty of backups come in and do well for this very reason. In the long run, they settle back to the bottom. Same will happen with Foles.

I see your point. This just proves that Andy isn't some offensive guru or QB genius.

Smith is at the bottom 3rd or worse each year. I really don't have any expectations that Foles will be any better in the end.

Mr. Wizard · 11-03-2016, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eDave

Yes. Anomaly as we knew that was open at first. Again, they planned for Smith. We've seen plenty of backups come in and do well for this very reason. In the long run, they settle back to the bottom. Same will happen with Foles.

Probably true so my question is why announce that foles is starting that early in the week? Is there some NFL rule I don't know about? Wouldn't it be better to say its a game time decision? The other team is going to prep for Foles now who runs the ball less himself and throws it deeper more often.

**loochy** · 11-03-2016, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wizard

Probably true so my question is why announce that foles is starting that early in the week? Is there some NFL rule I don't know about? Wouldn't it be better to say its a game time decision? The other team is going to prep for Foles now who runs the ball less himself and throws it deeper more often.

silly man, the jags don't prep for things

ToxSocks · 11-03-2016, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wizard

Probably true so my question is why announce that foles is starting that early in the week? Is there some NFL rule I don't know about? Wouldn't it be better to say its a game time decision? The other team is going to prep for Foles now who runs the ball less himself and throws it deeper more often.

You assume he'll throw it deeper more often. I don't think so. From the beginning of the Indy game you knew that Reid wanted to get vertical, so our plays downfield were by design, not simply a product of Foles coming onto the field.

The Jaguars field a better defense. Foles had all day to throw against Indy. He won't have that much time against the Jags.

Personally, i think our offense will look the same. And if it does, what does that say about Alex?

What does that say about Reid?

What i want to know is: Is Alex simply a product of Reid's system? If we can throw a guy like Foles in and have the same success or more, i think that's an indication that system is good, not necessarily the QB. If Foles stinks it up, it's a good case for Alex, not necessarily the system.

Remember AJ Feely? Kevin Kolb? He made those average/below average QB's look good enough to entice other teams. He actually got good production out of guys like Vick and Jeff Garcia. What happened to McNabb after he left Reid? Complete flop.....

Remember why Tyler Bray wanted to be a Chief? "Reid gets QB's paid"...

So lets see on Sunday.

11-02-2016, 05:26 PM	Topic Starter
TigeRRUppeRRcut Banned Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: 19th Hole Casino cash: $10004725	QB Non-controversy http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/1...and-the-qb-non Since the bye week, Smith is throwing deep on 20 percent of his attempts. He is 4-for-13 for 120 yards, with one touchdown. A 30 percent completion rate might not sound like much, but that's what you expect from all quarterbacks in the league on deep balls. If anyone is consistently completing more than 40 percent, you get suspicious. There is a slight discrepancy in the PFR and PFF deep ball definition. But for our purposes, this is negligible. Because the point is that the Chiefs did not start dialing it up more, or throwing it more, just because Foles was in the game. The game-plan was: let's challenge deep and focus on Kelce. Both Smith and Foles did just that. And both did it at a rate-per-attempt that would be among the most aggressive units in the league, if PFF's numbers are any indication. Against the Colts, Smith was 4-of-5 for 66 yards to Travis Kelce. He targeted Kelce on 26 percent of attempts. Foles was 3-of-5 for 35 yards to Travis Kelce. He targeted Kelce on 23 percent of attempts. Alex Smith >> Foles > Bray Foles can definitely beat the Jags by at least 10 if he plays smart. If he's gambling on these deep balls come Sunday without having a well-rounded game we could be in for a very, very rough afternoon. Last edited by TigeRRUppeRRcut; 11-02-2016 at 05:32 PM..
Posts: 11,680

11-02-2016, 05:28 PM	#2
eDave Banned Join Date: Jan 2013 Casino cash: $9998560	Spamming the board.
Posts: 53,803

11-02-2016, 05:29 PM	#4
TimBone Mostly Ignored Join Date: Jul 2013 Casino cash: $8419985	You're looking pretty insecure right now. We could have done without another thread.
Posts: 18,097

11-02-2016, 05:30 PM	#5
TigeRRUppeRRcut Banned Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: 19th Hole Casino cash: $10004725	Just As DJLN has been saying all over the threads... "This is why Smith sets interception records and completion records. A lot of people said Smith's low interception rate was unsustainable when he nearly set the NFL record in 2011. But they didn't understand that it was completely sustainable because it wasn't due to luck, or to some statistical anomaly, but due to scheme. Smith was throwing short. Those passes are easier to complete and less likely to be picked off. The reverse is true of guys who throw deep all the time. Low interception rates and high completion rates are unsustainable when you throw deep. If much of a QB's success is from the deep game, then that QB's success is also unsustainable."
Posts: 11,680

11-02-2016, 05:30 PM	#7
Reerun_KC Banned Join Date: Aug 2005 Casino cash: $7231160	Spamming and trying to stir up junk with more repetitive threads.
Posts: 1,529

11-02-2016, 05:32 PM	#10
Ming the Merciless Emporer of Mongo Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Milky Way Casino cash: $-482444	Lol Foles had 4 deep bombs in one half __________________ ---- 2018 Adopt-A-Chief : Chris Conley 2017 Adopt-A-Chief : FRANK ZOMBO Click here-->*The Holy Chiefsplanet Lexicon **
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