Chiefs Playoff scenarios

**DaFace** · 12-02-2019, 09:26 PM

Considering we have four games left, it's actually a little weird how little variability we have for playoff seeding at this point.

Our magic number with the Raiders is 2, so any combination of wins for us and losses for them that adds up to 2 clinches the division. (We can clinch this week if we beat the Pats and they lose to the Titans, for example.)

We can technically get to a bye, but it's gonna take a lot of luck going our way. The Chiefs have to win out, and the Texans have to drop at least one game (against the Titans x2, Broncos, or Bucs). If we ignore the MASSIVE upset possibilities (Pats lose to the Dolphins/Bengals or Ravens/Bills lose to the Jets), here are the most likely paths to a bye:

The Ravens drop TWO games (to the Bills, Steelers, or Browns)
The Patriots lose to the Bills AND the Bills lose to the Steelers or Ravens

Obviously, if some of those super weird upsets happen, things change, but those are about all we've got for likely scenarios. Overall, the models give us about a 90% chance of being a 3-4 seed, so frankly these games aren't near as important as you'd think unless we can get some major luck to go our way. But you never know...

(Feel free to chime in if I messed any of this up or if I missed another scenario that's worth discussing.)

**wazu** · 12-02-2019, 09:38 PM

Ravens aren't going to lose 2, and I seriously doubt the Bills have it in them to knock off the Patriots. I think Chiefs fans can pretty confidently make plans to attend a game in Arrowhead on Wild Card Weekend. Hopefully the team is healthy and can be the road team that both the Patriots and Ravens are praying they don't have to face in Round 2.

**DaFace** · 12-02-2019, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wazu

Ravens aren't going to lose 2, and I seriously doubt the Bills have it in them to knock off the Patriots. I think Chiefs fans can pretty confidently make plans to attend a game in Arrowhead on Wild Card Weekend. Hopefully the team is healthy and can be the road team that both the Patriots and Ravens are praying they don't have to face in Round 2.

Yeah, that's where I really started with when thinking about this thread. We could practically just rest starters the rest of the season and largely not have it matter (not that I think that's a good idea).

The part that I hadn't thought about before is that it's not even enough for the Bills to knock out the Pats. If they do, our tiebreakers go to the Bills, and we lose those due to conference losses. We need the Bills to be at the Pats and ALSO lose some on their own.

RaidersOftheCellar · 12-08-2019, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wazu

Ravens aren't going to lose 2, and I seriously doubt the Bills have it in them to knock off the Patriots. I think Chiefs fans can pretty confidently make plans to attend a game in Arrowhead on Wild Card Weekend. Hopefully the team is healthy and can be the road team that both the Patriots and Ravens are praying they don't have to face in Round 2.

The Bills are definitely capable of beating the Patriots. Should have happened the first time.

That will be a 9-6 type of game.

Lilmrp117 · 12-08-2019, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

The Bills are definitely capable of beating the Patriots. Should have happened the first time.

That will be a 9-6 type of game.

That's true and we can then pass the pats for 2 seed but pats aren't losing to bungles or dolphins so bills aren't passing pats for division due to tiebreaker. So may as well have Ravens win and get the bills the loss we need them to get.

**007** · 12-08-2019, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lilmrp117

That's true and we can then pass the pats for 2 seed but pats aren't losing to bungles or dolphins so bills aren't passing pats for division due to tiebreaker. So may as well have Ravens win and get the bills the loss we need them to get.

Never count out the dolphins curse on the pats

**PHOG** · 12-08-2019, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lilmrp117

That's true and we can then pass the pats for 2 seed but pats aren't losing to bungles or dolphins so bills aren't passing pats for division due to tiebreaker. So may as well have Ravens win and get the bills the loss we need them to get.

When we beat the Cheatriots, and the Bills were to defeat the Ravens, then if they were to defeat the Cheatriots they would have the tiebreaker over the RAVENS and a 1 game lead on the Cheatriots, I think.

Lilmrp117 · 12-08-2019, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PHOG

When we beat the Cheatriots, and the Bills were to defeat the Ravens, then if they were to defeat the Cheatriots they would have the tiebreaker over the RAVENS and a 1 game lead on the Cheatriots, I think.

Do you really think the bills are going to win out though? Cause that's what they would need to do. But i think that hurts our chances bc if you take the bills out of the equation for a bye then we need to pass either the pats or the Ravens and hope texans lose one more. If bills get a bye then we absolutely need to pass the Ravens. I think we have a better shot at passing the pats than the Ravens and would rather have that option open with the bills out of the equation which can happen with the Ravens beating the bills today.

arrwheader · 12-02-2019, 09:40 PM

These are correct except the Texans need to lose one for the Chiefs to get the two and at this point I think its much more likely for a bye that the Chiefs will win out and the Pats drop a game to the bills and the bills drop a game from the ravens. Boom 2 seed.

Nvm I see you put the Texans loss in there.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 12-02-2019, 09:50 PM

NE has the tiebreaker over Buffalo at 12-4 so we yeah, if KC wins out, then Pats, Bills and Texans lose one more each.. 2 seed.

**wazu** · 12-02-2019, 09:52 PM

I'll probably root for 3 seed just so it means we'll face Pats in round 2 and not Ravens.

Megatron96 · 12-02-2019, 11:22 PM

The odds of the Chiefs getting the second seed are pretty low even if we win out, so I haven't spent a lot of time even thinking about it.

However, I think the Texans could easily lose to the Titans. Their pass defense is not good, much worse than ours (ranked 28th), and their run defense is ranked just 19th. And their last game is against the Bucs, and the Bucs have put the voodoo on more than one team this year, including the Rams.

The Ravens probably won't lose two more games, but they're in a weird division. The Browns already beat them badly this year (I have no idea how, as I didn't see that game), but there's probably no good reason they can't do it again, unless the first win was just flukey as hell.

The Patriots could easily lose three games. They're not playing very well offensively right now. They aren't running well, and they aren't passing well, period. Their OL is terrible, and there's no help waiting in the wings for that group. In fact, their center Karras(?) got injured last night, and may not play against the Chiefs on Sunday. And I'm betting (heavily) that the Chiefs will beat the brakes off the Patriots this weekend. We're healthier at every position, we have a far better offense, an improved defense over last year, and Andy's had a year to look at the AFCCG and find multiple ways to beat that secondary.

The Bills are actually playing decent offensive football in recent weeks, and their defense has proven to be pretty stout. And I think they could also lose to the Dolphins, crazy as that sounds. MIA has been competitive lately, and Fitzpatrick is playing good football right now.

However, the only thing the Chiefs can control is winning out. They need to focus on that and let the chips fall where they may. Get into the playoffs and force everyone to keep up with us.

Three7s · 12-03-2019, 02:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96

The odds of the Chiefs getting the second seed are pretty low even if we win out, so I haven't spent a lot of time even thinking about it.

However, I think the Texans could easily lose to the Titans. Their pass defense is not good, much worse than ours (ranked 28th), and their run defense is ranked just 19th. And their last game is against the Bucs, and the Bucs have put the voodoo on more than one team this year, including the Rams.

The Ravens probably won't lose two more games, but they're in a weird division. The Browns already beat them badly this year (I have no idea how, as I didn't see that game), but there's probably no good reason they can't do it again, unless the first win was just flukey as hell.

The Patriots could easily lose three games. They're not playing very well offensively right now. They aren't running well, and they aren't passing well, period. Their OL is terrible, and there's no help waiting in the wings for that group. In fact, their center Karras(?) got injured last night, and may not play against the Chiefs on Sunday. And I'm betting (heavily) that the Chiefs will beat the brakes off the Patriots this weekend. We're healthier at every position, we have a far better offense, an improved defense over last year, and Andy's had a year to look at the AFCCG and find multiple ways to beat that secondary.

The Bills are actually playing decent offensive football in recent weeks, and their defense has proven to be pretty stout. And I think they could also lose to the Dolphins, crazy as that sounds. MIA has been competitive lately, and Fitzpatrick is playing good football right now.

However, the only thing the Chiefs can control is winning out. They need to focus on that and let the chips fall where they may. Get into the playoffs and force everyone to keep up with us.

After rewatching the clips from that game, it was really odd. The Ravens OL was awful for the most part, though their running game was still churning for the most part, but a fumble really killed them. Their defense wasn't good either.

jerryaldini · 12-02-2019, 11:38 PM

Rany J claims if we win out we have a 59 percent bye probability
https://twitter.com/jazayerli/status...485375488?s=19

mr. tegu · 12-02-2019, 11:40 PM

I’m rooting for the Bills and Chiefs winning out with an additional loss from the Texans and Ravens so we can get the two seed and I’ll be fine with a Bills one seed. What happens if we have four or five 12-4 teams I have no idea.

Not the most realistic scenario so for something more realistic I’m hoping for the three seed against the Steelers and then the Titans and Bills in the other wild card game as I think either of them would have a decent chance of beating the Ravens.

12-02-2019, 09:26 PM	Topic Starter
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $-1683101	Playoff scenarios Considering we have four games left, it's actually a little weird how little variability we have for playoff seeding at this point. Our magic number with the Raiders is 2, so any combination of wins for us and losses for them that adds up to 2 clinches the division. (We can clinch this week if we beat the Pats and they lose to the Titans, for example.) We can technically get to a bye, but it's gonna take a lot of luck going our way. The Chiefs have to win out, and the Texans have to drop at least one game (against the Titans x2, Broncos, or Bucs). If we ignore the MASSIVE upset possibilities (Pats lose to the Dolphins/Bengals or Ravens/Bills lose to the Jets), here are the most likely paths to a bye: The Ravens drop TWO games (to the Bills, Steelers, or Browns) The Patriots lose to the Bills AND the Bills lose to the Steelers or Ravens Obviously, if some of those super weird upsets happen, things change, but those are about all we've got for likely scenarios. Overall, the models give us about a 90% chance of being a 3-4 seed, so frankly these games aren't near as important as you'd think unless we can get some major luck to go our way. But you never know... (Feel free to chime in if I messed any of this up or if I missed another scenario that's worth discussing.)
Posts: 53,132

12-02-2019, 09:38 PM	#2
wazu ... Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, MO Casino cash: $-1497705 VARSITY	Ravens aren't going to lose 2, and I seriously doubt the Bills have it in them to knock off the Patriots. I think Chiefs fans can pretty confidently make plans to attend a game in Arrowhead on Wild Card Weekend. Hopefully the team is healthy and can be the road team that both the Patriots and Ravens are praying they don't have to face in Round 2.
Posts: 30,648

12-02-2019, 09:40 PM	#9
arrwheader Veteran Join Date: Dec 2011 Casino cash: $146613	These are correct except the Texans need to lose one for the Chiefs to get the two and at this point I think its much more likely for a bye that the Chiefs will win out and the Pats drop a game to the bills and the bills drop a game from the ravens. Boom 2 seed. Nvm I see you put the Texans loss in there. Last edited by arrwheader; 12-02-2019 at 09:48 PM.. Reason: fix
Posts: 3,547

12-02-2019, 09:50 PM	#10
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS Join Date: Aug 2013 Casino cash: $6629447	NE has the tiebreaker over Buffalo at 12-4 so we yeah, if KC wins out, then Pats, Bills and Texans lose one more each.. 2 seed.
Posts: 29,037

12-02-2019, 09:52 PM	#11
wazu ... Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, MO Casino cash: $-1497705 VARSITY	I'll probably root for 3 seed just so it means we'll face Pats in round 2 and not Ravens.
Posts: 30,648

12-02-2019, 11:22 PM	#12
Megatron96 Suupraa Geniuuusss Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: North Phoenix, AZ Casino cash: $-1759600	The odds of the Chiefs getting the second seed are pretty low even if we win out, so I haven't spent a lot of time even thinking about it. However, I think the Texans could easily lose to the Titans. Their pass defense is not good, much worse than ours (ranked 28th), and their run defense is ranked just 19th. And their last game is against the Bucs, and the Bucs have put the voodoo on more than one team this year, including the Rams. The Ravens probably won't lose two more games, but they're in a weird division. The Browns already beat them badly this year (I have no idea how, as I didn't see that game), but there's probably no good reason they can't do it again, unless the first win was just flukey as hell. The Patriots could easily lose three games. They're not playing very well offensively right now. They aren't running well, and they aren't passing well, period. Their OL is terrible, and there's no help waiting in the wings for that group. In fact, their center Karras(?) got injured last night, and may not play against the Chiefs on Sunday. And I'm betting (heavily) that the Chiefs will beat the brakes off the Patriots this weekend. We're healthier at every position, we have a far better offense, an improved defense over last year, and Andy's had a year to look at the AFCCG and find multiple ways to beat that secondary. The Bills are actually playing decent offensive football in recent weeks, and their defense has proven to be pretty stout. And I think they could also lose to the Dolphins, crazy as that sounds. MIA has been competitive lately, and Fitzpatrick is playing good football right now. However, the only thing the Chiefs can control is winning out. They need to focus on that and let the chips fall where they may. Get into the playoffs and force everyone to keep up with us.
Posts: 34,903

12-02-2019, 11:38 PM	#14
jerryaldini MVP Join Date: Dec 2018 Casino cash: $2630400	Rany J claims if we win out we have a 59 percent bye probability https://twitter.com/jazayerli/status...485375488?s=19
Posts: 8,512

12-02-2019, 11:40 PM	#15
mr. tegu Forever Royal Join Date: Mar 2012 Casino cash: $-1698700	Playoff scenarios I’m rooting for the Bills and Chiefs winning out with an additional loss from the Texans and Ravens so we can get the two seed and I’ll be fine with a Bills one seed. What happens if we have four or five 12-4 teams I have no idea. Not the most realistic scenario so for something more realistic I’m hoping for the three seed against the Steelers and then the Titans and Bills in the other wild card game as I think either of them would have a decent chance of beating the Ravens.
Posts: 26,487