538 Calls Tom Brady the 43rd Clutchest Postseason QB

[Hootie]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...s-eli-manning/

I found the following interesting:

Here’s the problem: This way of thinking about quarterbacks forces them to compete against themselves. Sure, the Patriots have often been favored to win their postseason games. But a lot of that is because Brady is their quarterback. How might the Pats have expected to do with a replacement-level QB instead?

They might not have been totally hopeless. Brady has usually had a little bit more talent surrounding him than Peyton Manning has. (Matt Cassel, who rates as somewhere between average and replacement-level, led New England to an 11-5 record when Brady was hurt in 2008.) Bill Belichick would probably have snuck them into the playoffs a few times. But they’d also have been playing good opponents. Our method projects them to a 12-14 or 13-13 postseason record rather than Brady’s 18-8.

I calculate these estimates based on a quarterback’s adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), a metric that accounts for yardage, attempts, touchdowns, interceptions and sacks — basically it’s a better version of the NFL’s passer rating. A replacement-level quarterback typically posts an ANY/A at about 80 percent of the league average, so a QB gets credit for any performance above and beyond that.1 I then translate this into points added or subtracted in the regular season2 and translate points into a team’s Elo rating to evaluate the impact the QB had on his team overall.3

It’s notoriously difficult, of course, to distinguish the performance of a quarterback from that of his teammates, but this method produces some reasonable-seeming results. This year’s Green Bay Packers project as a slightly below-average team with a replacement-level guy subbed in for Aaron Rodgers , for instance. Instead of having been 59 percent favorites in their Sunday game against the Cowboys, as they were based on Elo ratings, they’d have been roughly 2-to-1 underdogs.

The principle is simply that the better the quarterback, the more his team would be harmed by removing him. In the case of Peyton Manning’s teams, I estimate that pulling Manning would hurt them by about a touchdown (7 points) per game. That’s enough to demote them to a projected 8-16 record in the 24 postseason games Manning has played.

This article projects that, with a replacement level QB, The Patriots postseason record would have been 12-14 or 13-13 without Tom Brady (they are taking out the Bledsoe game).

It projects that Manning's teams would have been 8-16 without Peyton Manning.

Pretty much has always been my point. Manning has a history of not playing like God in the playoffs, but he has always had a hell of a lot more on his shoulders than Tom Brady. And the whole idea of the "Tom doesn't have enough weapons!!!" is criminally stupid.

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan

He's won a Super Bowl. That negates your argument.

Originally Posted by LoneWolf

He said Super Bowls. His use of the s on the end of Bowl negates your response.

Also, Manning was anything but a stats compiler in the postseason during the year he won the Super Bowl.

In 4 games, he never threw more TDs than INTs (finished with 3 TDs and 7 INTs), and he never reached an 82 QB rating. His team actually bailed him out with a win of a game where Manning's passer rating was 39.6.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan

His playoff record is bad, at times, but his numbers speak for themselves. He's set how many records? Which makes him the VERY best in those categories. Also, he does have a Super Bowl victory, as well as another trip there. I can't believe anybody in their right mind would argue he's not one of the best of all time. That's insanity to argue against him. He's a sure fire, first ballot hall of famer. Pull your head out of your ass and see the forest through the trees. Try be objective and quit being so obtuse.

He's a playoff choker and probably the best regular season QB of all-time. The playoff choking puts him clearly outside of the 5 best QBs of all-time. I'm tired of people including him in that.

[Hoopsdoc]

Originally Posted by MeatRock

I guess Bethea, Sanders, Brock, Brackett, Mathis and Freeney were all shit players on defense for Manning during his time with the colts because ya know Brady always had better defenses.

So ****ing stupid its beyond reproach.

People often forget during the Manning/Brady debate that Tom has had on his side probably the greatest coach of all time.

[Psyko Tek]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

The article isn't suggesting Tom Brady had better skill level offensive players around him.

It's suggesting that he had much better teams around him. Teams. Not just an offense. Teams.

For instance.

In Tom Brady's 9-0 start to his postseason career, the most important part of those teams were the defense. Tom was in charge of just trying to be efficient and not ****ing up. We all know that.

Skews the numbers.

Peyton has always had to be the best player on his team. Always. Tom? Not during the successful part of his postseason career. Those teams were always defensive minded teams with Tom being a very efficient game manager.

o you are saying defenses win champion ships?
and QBs just get endorsements?

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Over under 24 hours till he reaches full super hootie and is banned again. What u got?

why does everyone think talking about Brady and Manning is going to lead to a banning?

Are you guys all reeruned?

[Brock]

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan

I read what he said. I just find it absurd. Take your Ticky tacky shit and eat a dick. This place has turned into a bunch of whiny bitches, that refuse to be objective. Enjoy arguing that Peyton isn't one of the best there is and expect to be taken seriously, yeah right imbecile. I've got better things to do then argue idiotic topics.

Well, bye

[Hootie]

I don't think Gonzo or Mr. Flopnuts are going to decide to ban me because I am obsessed with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. It's not really that hard to stay out of my Manning and Brady threads if they are really that annoying.

It's not like the thread is titled, "ooh, free blowjobs from JASONSAUTO! Click here!" It's pretty clearly a Manning / Brady thread.

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by Psyko Tek

o you are saying defenses win champion ships?
and QBs just get endorsements?

I'd say, as I have for years, savior elite QBs are unicorns. The closest was when Elway willed the Donkeys to 3 lopsided SB losses, and the second closest was when Manning willed OK teams to a rash of 1 and dones.

SBs are won by good QBs on great teams and great QBs on good teams, 1-53.

'The right 53' might be attached to a shitty control-freak GM, but it's a sound premise. You can't have 30-35 amazing players and win, let alone 1. You need a team that either masks the shortcomings of the QB or a QB that overcomes a few controllable inadequacies on the team.

What people miss in the hype of a QB driven league, is the rise of comprehensive analysis. With all the HD footage, and replay capability, and advanced analytics, football minds can exploit everything that happens on the field. It's now longer the simple story of a GREAT MAN drawing a play in the dirt. It's knowing that one chip technique has a 5% greater success rate than another on a particular play, or the success rate for every inch away a FG attempt is made.

[Ming the Merciless]

When tom Brady demolishes Andy luck next week will you shut the **** up?

[KC native]

Why the **** would anyone want Hootie banned?

He's too much fun.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

When tom Brady demolishes Andy luck next week will you shut the **** up?

No. Didn't Peyton beat Tom in the AFCCG just last year?

[Hootie]

*enters Amnorix*

"Yeah, but Welker hurt Talib and Tom didn't have enough weapons!"

You know, because Talib is soooo good.

[KC native]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

When tom Brady demolishes Andy luck next week will you shut the **** up?

Are you serious?

[Don Corlemahomes]

We should feel honored that Hootie took time out of his exciting, busy life to provide such profound insight into this minimally discussed topic.

[Ming the Merciless]

Sorry but any poll where eli manning is #1 and tom Brady is #43 and there's a bunch of lesser players in between is utter garbage.