Post-Season Mock 1.0

[kccrow]

Offseason Plan

Spoiler!

Release (incl. Waive/Retirement/Trade/Option)

Alex Smith (QB) - Trade for 2018 draft pick (+9,700,000) - Alex Smith has proven he cannot get KC over the hump. It's time to get a return on investment, move on, and look at the future. The Bills, Jets, Bears, or Browns for a 2nd round pick seem like very plausible options.
Jamaal Charles (RB) - Trade for 2018 conditional draft pick (+$7,000,000) - Charles is getting old and those injuries are a factor. If he can show he's got something left by season's end, I think the Chiefs move him and $7 million off the books for some type of compensation. If not, he's going to have to take a significant pay cut or be cut.
Josh Mauga (ILB) - Release (+3,000,000) - Mauga has been oft injured the past 2 seasons and is going to be 30. It's time to move on with youth at the position.
Jah Reid (OL) - Release (+$2,075,000) - Reid became insurance after the Chiefs signed Mitchell Schwartz, and Reid hasn't even seen much action with all of the injuries at guard. His salary is needed elsewhere.
Derrick Johnson (ILB) - Expected Retirement (+2,250,000) - A second Achilles tear likely means the end for DJ. While he may be optimistic, I'm not. He's already lost a step and another Achilles is just too much to overcome. He's toast.
Tamba Hali (OLB) - Expected Retirement (-333,334) - Hali has clearly lost a step and hasn't been productive this season. He wants to go out being remembered as a good player. He's done.

Allow to Walk

Albert Wilson (WR) - Lackluster play and the ascention of Tyreek Hill as a rookie makes Wilson easily expendable. A RFA tender is too much to pay for his services in my opinion.
Kendall Reyes (DL) - While a nice reserve, Chris Jones and Rakeem Nunez-Roches are developing nicely and Bailey will be back. Dorsey will likely look to add more young depth.
Bishop Sankey (RB) - A backup plan to a backup plan, so unless he makes some significant contribution he's out.
Mike Person (OG) - Not a contributor.
Trey Millard (FB) - Not a contributor, may be signed to a futures/camp fodder contract
Kenny Cook (WR) - Not a contributor, may be signed to a futures/camp fodder contract.

Re-Sign

Eric Berry (S) - 5-years $60,000,000 with $28,000,000 guaranteed at signing ($17,000,000 signing bonus).

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $7.60 m ($4.00 guaranteed base), 2018 - $10.60 m ($7.00 guaranteed base), 2019 - $13.60 m, 2020, $13.60 m, 2021 - $14.60 m

Tryann Mathieu agreed to a 5-year, $62.5 million extension a year ago ($12.5 m/yr w/ $21.25 m guaranteed at signing) to stay with the Cardinals, so that is likely the precedent that Berry's camp will follow. Like with most negotiations, it isn't always the total or average money of the contract, but the guaranteed money. Berry's contract would come in second in average at $12.0 m per, but he'd receive the most guaranteed of any safety to date. Berry is one of the primary leaders on the defense, so his retention is of paramount importance.

Dontari Poe (NT) - 5-years $47,000,000 with $21,000,000 guaranteed at signing ($9,000,000 signing bonus)

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $6.00 m ($4.00 of guaranteed base), 2018 - $10.00 m ($8.00 of guaranteed base), 2019 - $10.00 m, 2020 - $10.00 m, 2021 - 11.00 m

Damon Harrison signed a 5-year $46.25 million deal ($9,250,000/year w/$20 m guaranteed at signing) to go from the Jets to the Giants a year ago, and Poe is every bit as good of a player. It stands to reason that Poe will receive at least a comparable contract. The question would become what teams would forcast him becoming in a 4-3 where he could put more pressure on the QB. With seasons including 4.5 and 6.0 sacks as a NT in a 3-4, teams would likely bet on him being a guy capable of 8+ sacks in a 1-gap scheme, which would put him in the upper echelon of DTs. For those reasons, Poe's value could rise much higher than Harrison's. A good NT is the most essential piece to running a quality 3-4 defense, and the Chiefs have the NFL's best in Dontari Poe. Poe is a must sign.

Dustin Colquitt (P) - 5-year, $20,350,000 Extension, converting $4,000,000 of 2017 money to a signing bonus and guaranteeing another 1,150,000 in 2017 salary and 2,400,000 in 2018 salary for a total of $7.55 million guaranteed.

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $2.80 m, 2018 - $3.25 m, 2019 - $3.25 m, 2020 - $3.65 m, 2021 - $4.05 m, 2022 - -$4.15 m

Colquitt is an easy conversion of cap funding this season through either cut or extension. In this case the Chiefs gain $2.1 million in cap space and maintain Colquitt as one of the highest paid punters in the league as well as having the most guaranteed money through the end of his career.

Terrance Mitchell (CB) - 2-year, $4,500,000 extension with $1,500,000 signing bonus and $125,000 roster bonuses each season (Similar to Buffalo's Nickell Robey-Coleman).

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $1.19 m (690k current salary + 500k signing), 2018, $1.875 m, 2019 - 2.125 m

Daniel Sorensen (SS) - 1-year RFA original round tender of $1,671,000
James Winchester (LS) - 1-year ERFA tender of $615,000
Cairo Santos (K) - 1-year RFA original round tender of $1,671,000

Resulting Cap Liabilities: $159,762,679 (versus projected $166,000,000 cap = $7,237,321 cap space, plus potential $5.6 m in rollover from 2016)

Mock Draft

1. Patrick Mahomes II, QB, Texas Tech (6'2' 229)
Mahomes is a guy that needs quite a bit of work, I'm going to put that right out front. I have him graded as a late 2nd to early 3rd player. I think alot of pundit outlets have him graded as a 3rd round pick. He has consistency habits with his footwork and stepping up into the pocket. He has a bad habit of throwing off his back foot. He has a bad habit of scrambling and not setting his feet to throw. He also lets himself get lead feet and doesn't keep his feet active and moving with him as he scans down field. Those things have to be corrected. He loses way too much velocity on his passes when he does them, and that's going to lead to NFL INTs rather than the TDs he got in college. He has a terribly bad habit of hanging onto the ball too long, dropping it down, patting it, and so forth. I don't like this. Make a decision and throw the football. He's in trouble if he does this in the NFL. He has a terrible habit of dropping backwards and scrambling out of his pocket, rather than stepping up into it. Basically, Mahomes needs some coaching because these are things he does too often, but he has shown the ability to do the things you do want as frequently. He has quick feet, when he sets and throws its a thing of beauty, and he is able to slide in the pocket and make plays. He has some things you can't teach, such as elite level arm strength, the ability to keep his eyes down field while on the move, and the ability to throw from awkward angles with decent accuracy. Mahomes shows good read progression at this stage, and should develop going forward. He also throws the football with good touch, leading his receivers open a good majority of the time. Mahomes has also shown the willingness to take shots deep down the field, but he is also a bit of a gun slinger and he has to be careful with that. Mahomes reminds me of a much less polished Aaron Rodgers coming out of college, so what I'm saying is that potential is there. So why take Mahomes in round 1? Because it is time KC takes a shot on a QB and Mahomes has enormous potential. Because the NFL doesn't wait for QBs that show the type of abilities that Mahomes shows and he just may not be there at pick 59. Because KC has a situation in place where Mahomes can sit and develop, he doesn't have to be a day 1 starter. And finally, because you get a 5th year option on a player you know needs that development - you won't have to rush that financial decision.

2. Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State (6'2" 243)
McMillan is a well built, NFL ready linebacker that is a plug up the middle of the defense. McMillan may not be a superior sideline-to-sideline speed freak like Ryan Shazier or Darron Lee coming out of OSU, but he's got solid speed and really improved his coverage play in 2016. McMillan has proven he certainly has enough speed to get to the corner and cut off outside stretch plays and screens, especially as a 3-4 ILB or 4-3 SOLB. McMillan's strength, however, is stacking and shedding blockers and playing North-South in run defense. McMillan comes down hill in a hurry, and normally with plenty of thump to go with it. McMillan is well respected as a team leader and community role model, and he is the defensive captain. McMillan plays smart and he is a film rat, which bodes well for his NFL prospects. A very similar player to James Laurinaitis coming out. Losing Mauga and Johnson in the same season proved that its time the Chiefs make a serious investment at ILB. Reduced my rating from late first to late second based on historical information and some grade rumors.

3. Hunter Dimick, DE (OLB), Utah (6'3" 266)
Dimick reminds me of a young Tamba Hali with decent speed, good strength, outstanding technique, and a motor that just doesn't shut down. Dimick led the PAC-12 in sacks in 2016 and was a force to be reckoned with against the run and pass in every single game. If not for an injury that set him back in 2015, Dimick would likely be talked about as a 1st round selection. Dimick's production in games played speaks for itself, and his non-stop, lunch-pail attitude will be extremely enticing to NFL talent evaluators. With injuries decimating the Chiefs' pass rushers the past couple of seasons, it is imparative that KC continues to employee three productive edge players. With Hali slowing down and ready to call it in and no real depth behind him, the Chiefs will have to add at least one edge defender to their stable.

3. Marlon Mack, RB, South Florida (5'11" 205) (Projected Comp - Sean Smith, CB)
Mack is a virtual clone of Jamaal Charles when he played at Texas, and the Chiefs might do well to try and strike gold twice by taking the lightning quick, slashing back in the third round. Mack has the agility to cut on a dime when he sees a crease and the speed to take it to the house on any play, an element that's been sorely lacking in the Chiefs run game since Charles has been out of the lineup. Mack, like Charles, is also an extremely versatile weapon out of the backfield with really good hands and open field ability. Mack is also an excellent pass blocker for a smaller player. With it extremely likely the Chiefs release Charles due to salary, they'll need to add another back and preferrably one with game-changing traits like Mack.

4. Isaac Asiata, OG, Utah (6'3" 323)
Asiata is a big ol' bowling ball of a guard who's scouting report should read exactly like Gabe Jackson's (Oakland Raiders 3rd round pick). Asiata is extremely quick and very strong, which bodes well for his run blocking. When Asiata locks on and keeps his feet moving it is often game over. Asiata is a ball of energy that seems to have a non-stop motor, a rare trait in an offensive lineman. Asiata plays with good technique, keeping his knees bent and delivering an incredible first punch. Asiata's short-area quickness makes him a very good down blocker on traps and inside screens. Asiata is a class left guard in that he will be a road grader type that will eventually develop his pass protection, but he's never going to be a guy that is all that superb out in space. If he develops like Jackson has in Oakland, he'll be an extremely good lineman in the NFL. Asiata took some snaps at center in 2016 after an injury to J.J. Dielman as well as having served as the starter at right tackle for a handful of games a few years ago, so he does offer some versatility.

5. Shelton Gibson, WR, West Virginia (5'11' 195)
Gibson has all the looks of a play-maker for a West Coast team, with good ability to catch the football and lightning quickness and agility to turn short passes into huge gains. While he's not a big player, Gibson is a difficult cover due to his outstanding ability to make crisp cuts and accelerate to top speed quickly. A Tavon Austin 2.0 type of player for the Mountaineers. This guy can stop, plant, and drive very quickly to change direction, probably his best trait. He also adjusts well to off-target throws. Gibson shows plus ability as a kick and punt returner as well.

5. Levon Myers, OT, Northern Illinois (6'5" 309) (Projected Comp - Chase Daniel, QB)
Myers is a solid tackle prospect with decent footwork and strength along with a good build. Although Myers manned the left side at NIU, he may not have enough lateral quickness to remain there in the NFL, but his abilities seem to translate solidly to the right side. Myers has a nasty streak to him, often finishing blocks with knockdowns. Myers always plays through the whistle and is a solid run blocker. If things didn't work out on the right side, Myers shows the strength and mindset to move inside to guard, where he could use his brawler mentality even more so. The Chiefs really need to continue to try to bolster the trenches. I don't expect John Dorsey to spend a ton of draft capital on offensive lineman at this juncture, but I would expect him to bring guys in that can be backup caliber and push starters for playing time at guard. I think Myers checks the boxes of having right tackle backup ability, but could push to start at guard.

6. Scott Orndoff, TE, Pittsburgh (6'5" 265) (Projected Comp - Donald Stephenson, OT)
Orndoff isn't a guy that's going to wow you with speed or spectacular catches like Travis Kelce, but he's proven he can get down the field and catch the football and is especially solid in the red zone. Orndoff's real strength comes in his blocking ability, something the Chiefs really lack in their depth tight ends. Orndoff is kind of an Anthony Fasano type, nothing flashy but pretty darn solid all-around. Demetrius Harris has been less of an asset than a liability on several occassions this season, and his contract value is a little steep for what he actually provides. Ross Travis is an athletic receiving type and James O'Shaughnessy seems to commit a false start every time he takes the field. It may be a good time to try and strengthen this group with a better blocker in the mix and push the young guys.

6. Chad Hansen, WR, California (6'3" 205) (Projected Comp - Tyvon Branch, SS)
Hansen is really a prototypical WCO receiver in that he has solid size, good speed, excellent hands, and he has really good quickness in his breaks. Hansen has grown into a bit of a Jordy Nelson type with excellent body control and the ability to go up and make tough catches. The kid will get knocked for playing in the Air Raid and not having years of eye-popping stats, but he's a late bloomer to keep an eye on. The Chief may need to add a receiver or two in this draft given the lack of overall depth. Albert Wilson is a restricted free agent, and the price of his tender may be too much to be worth keeping around. De'Anthony Thomas hasn't done anything to really warrant a roster spot and the Chiefs haven't given Demarcus Robinson any looks as a rookie.

7. Treyvon Hester, DT, Toledo (6'3" 300)
Hester is a good sized tackle with disruptive traits, especially a quick first step off the snap. Hester is routinely double and triple-teamed on the front line, so his stat lines don't look gaudy. Looks like a bit quicker version of Jaye Howard. Needs some work on maintaining his area discipline and play recognition, but his motor doesn't seem to stop. Plays with more of a defensive end mentality than a defensive tackle. Certainly looks like a guy that can be developed as depth along the defensive front, where KC will likely need to add pieces this offseason.

Roster

Spoiler!

QB: N. Foles, P. Mahomes, T. Bray
RB: M. Mack, S. Ware, C. West
FB: A. Sherman
WR: J. Maclin, C. Conley, T. Hill, S. Gibson, C. Hansen, D. Robinson
TE: T. Kelce, D. Harris, S. Orndoff, R. Travis
OL: E. Fisher, M. Schwartz, L. Myers, B. Witzmann
OG: P. Ehinger, I. Asiata, L. Duvernay-Tardiff
OC: M. Morse, Z. Fulton
DE: C. Jones, J. Howard, A. Bailey, R. Nunez-Roches, T. Hester
NT: D. Poe
OLB: J. Houston, D. Ford, H. Dimick, V. Ochi, F. Zombo, D. Nicholas
ILB: R. McMillan, R. Wilson, J. March, D. Alexander, T. Smith
CB: M. Peters, T. Mitchell, P. Gaines, S. Nelson, D. White, K. Acker
FS: R. Parker, E. Murray
SS: E. Berry, D. Sorensen
ST: C. Santos, D. Colquitt, J. Winchester

[Chief Northman]

I always appreciate the amount of research and work you put into this. But the fact that your paragraph on Mahomes is 75% red flag and inconsistency mentions should tell you enough about him as an option for the Chiefs at number 27. When you land the likes of Jones, and Peters who were huge value picks where they were drafted I cannot see Dorsey turning down a more proven prospect at any given position with that 27 pick.

Mahomes is a great athlete and has flash and appeal, but he will not get away with athleticism alone at the next level. "The pocket" does not exist with this guy. O-linemen would have fits with him back there, never knowing where the launch point is, or when he is actually throwing the ball.

Too raw.

A "first round or bust", elite qb starved franchise like the Chiefs cannot make a huge mistake by caving to the pressure of the sentiment, and grossly overdrafting what will likely amount to a guy who is out of the league in a couple years. I want to like Mahomes, but there are just too many things to fix with him.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

I always appreciate the amount of research and work you put into this. But the fact that your paragraph on Mahomes is 75% red flag and inconsistency mentions should tell you enough about him as an option for the Chiefs at number 27. When you land the likes of Jones, and Peters who were huge value picks where they were drafted I cannot see Dorsey turning down a more proven prospect at any given position with that 27 pick.

Mahomes is a great athlete and has flash and appeal, but he will not get away with athleticism alone at the next level. "The pocket" does not exist with this guy. O-linemen would have fits with him back there, never knowing where the launch point is, or when he is actually throwing the ball.

Too raw.

A "first round or bust", elite qb starved franchise like the Chiefs cannot make a huge mistake by caving to the pressure of the sentiment, and grossly overdrafting what will likely amount to a guy who is out of the league in a couple years. I want to like Mahomes, but there are just too many things to fix with him.

I think Mahomes came out a year too early. He's going to need work. I see enough there that he's going to be a good football player if he gets the right coaching staff to work on those things. I think KC is a perfect situation for him. He'd have the time to refine his game, much like Rodgers did in GB. I'd, ideally, love to be able to get him in round 2. This is a QB starved NFL. They reach every year for QBs, and they reach big. I don't think he's going to fall out of the top 10 picks of round 2.

IF Cleveland doesn't got QB at 1.1, then there is a legitimate chance then they likely don't like anyone enough to strike at 12, but I'd bet they'll take a shot at 33. I fully expect Trubisky, Kizer, and Watson (and I have my issues with this kid too) to be the first 3 off the board and all by pick 13. That leaves Mahomes as the next guy up. After those four, the only other QBs I like in this draft are Peterman and Webb but I see them both as 4th rounders that you take with the expectation of backup and hope they can become more.

The biggest reason for taking Mahomes in round 1 though, isn't because he's necessarily a round 1 QB. It's because you get a 5th year option and you're still getting a QB for really cheap. The projection for last year's 27th pick was 9.3 million with 5.0 million guaranteed and that's exactly what it ended up being. The annual cap breakdowns for those 1st four years are approximately 1.7, 2.1, 2.6, and 3.0 million. The 5th year option for that pick is the average of the 3rd through 25th highest salaries at that position, which was 16.0 million for 2016. Even if that number goes up to 20 million by that point, if he's your starter it is likely a very cheap number. If he's not going to be your starter, you simply don't pick up the option.

Perspective wise, Christian Hackenberg went 51st overall last year. Mahomes shows considerably more talent than Hackenberg.

His scouting report should actually read alot like Derek Carr's who went 36th overall. Here it was from NFL.com:

ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS Athletic with very good feet -- can roll the pocket, evade the rush or escape when pocket crumbles. Terrific arm talent -- releases from the ear and can make all the throws. Quick-armed with wrist snap. Can alter his platform and throw on the move or off his back foot. Throws come out on time and accurately. Drills short-to-intermediate throws and flashes touch. Likes to play and it shows. Sells out to make a play. Record-breaking production. Adapted to coaching/system change and receiver turnover. Improved ball security -- fumbled only once as a senior compared to 12 times the previous two seasons. Desirable intangibles for the position -- advanced maturity, leadership and intelligence. Shows poise and moxie. On-field general who commands the huddle. Passionate about the game and works at his craft.
WEAKNESSES Lacks ideal height and has relatively small hands. Bulk is just adequate. Could stand to improve as a deep passer. At times tries to do too much and forces some throws. Occasionally throws off balance unnecessarily and sails some throws. Operated out of the shotgun and pistol and made a lot short/lateral throws and half-field reads. Production is inflated by spread offense and porous Mountain West Conference defenses -- nine 2013 opponents (excluding an FCS opponent) ranked between 81st and 125th nationally in scoring defense and/or passing defense. Had his worst game in the Las Vegas Bowl against USC.
DRAFT PROJECTION Round 1
BOTTOM LINE Athletic, tough, instinctive, strong-armed, highly competitive quarterback who will impress in workouts, interviews and on the board, and improved his draft standing with those skills in the postseason. Elevated the Fresno State program and profiles like a gunslinger, though he’d be better served in the long run honing his game-management skills. Will be a starter sooner rather than later and the degree to which he’s able to make those around him better will determine his ceiling.

[BryanBusby]

The thing is, Mahomes didn't stand to gain much returning for another year at a program like TT.

[DJ's left nut]

Sold.

Mahomes/McMillan is my preferred (and pretty possible) 1st/2nd rounds.

[Mr_Tomahawk]

You write these so well that you sell me every time.
I love the Marlon Mack pick...knew nothing of him.

And of course, Mahomes.


Yes to it all. Let's do it!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bsp4444]

Not much to complain about with this draft. QB, ILB, and RB are the big needs this year, while supplementing the trenches. Nice job.

[RunKC]

Draft looks great. I would keep JC and Reyes though. Just my 2 cents

[Sfeihc]

This Michigan fan would like to see Raekwon as a CHIEF. Dude is always everywhere.

[kccrow]

What would you guys think of this as an update:

Re-sign Berry
Sign ILB Zach Brown
Let Poe walk
The other bullshit I've outlined before.

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech (6'2" 229)
QBOTF
2. Dion Dawkins, OT/G, Temple (6'4" 317)
Strong, athletic, long tackle to guard conversion. Will open holes in the run game and stop pass rushers. Day 1 starter at RG.
3. Montravius Adams, DT, Auburn (6'3" 308)
Athletic defensive tackle that can put pressure on a QB, DE takeover for Howard.
3. Anthony Walker Jr., ILB, Northwestern (6'1" 235)
Replace DJ with another athletic cover linebacker.
4. Hunter Dimick, DE, Utah (6'3" 272)
Pass rusher for rotation.
5. Elijah McGuire, RB, UL-Lafayette (5'9" 210)
Patient runner, excellent receiver. Fits the Reid RB profile.
5. Levon Myers, OT, Northern Illinois (6'5" 305)
Backup RT.
6. Steven Taylor, OLB, Houston (6'1" 225)
Another athletic cover linebacker type.
6. Josh Tupou, NT, Colorado (6'3" 360)
Sleeper if he drops 20 pounds. Great collegiate 3-4 NT.
7. Jehu Chesson, WR, Michigan (6'2" 203)
Explosive receiver that was a late bloomer. Special teams return ability.


QB: N. Foles, P. Mahomes, T. Bray
RB: S. Ware, E. McGuire, C. West
FB: A. Sherman
WR: J. Maclin, C. Conley, T. Hill, D. Thomas, J. Chesson, D. Robinson
TE: T. Kelce, D. Harris, R. Travis
OL: E. Fisher, M. Schwartz, L. Myers, B. Witzmann
OG: P. Ehinger, D. Dawkins, L. Duvernay-Tardiff
OC: M. Morse, Z. Fulton
DE: C. Jones, A. Bailey, M. Adams, R. Nunez-Roches
NT: J. Howard, J. Tupou
OLB: J. Houston, D. Ford, H. Dimick, V. Ochi, F. Zombo, D. Nicholas
ILB: Z. Brown, A. Walker, R. Wilson, S. Taylor, D. Alexander, T. Smith
CB: M. Peters, T. Mitchell, P. Gaines, S. Nelson, D. White, K. Acker
FS: R. Parker, E. Murray
SS: E. Berry, D. Sorensen
ST: C. Santos, D. Colquitt, J. Winchester

[RunKC]

I like it crow but I am of the opinion that pass rusher is a huge need that needs to be a 1/2 rd pick.

Tamba's done and Zombo sucks. Need another rusher to be available day 1 IMO

[The Franchise]

I'd rather see Kamara in the 2nd. Mahomes and Kamara would be ****ing great.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I like it crow but I am of the opinion that pass rusher is a huge need that needs to be a 1/2 rd pick.

Tamba's done and Zombo sucks. Need another rusher to be available day 1 IMO

I think Dimick is a guy that deserves round 2, but I haven't seen him move up a board in over a month so I've moved him down 2 full rounds in that time frame. The guy is nails. He's better than 90% of the players being slotted there. He's better than TJ Watt, but Watt will get the love because he's a Watt. Don't get me wrong, I like TJ Watt a bunch but Dimick has been a monster for 3 years and Watt has done it for one. If you can get a guy that is a 2nd round type of talent as late as the drafturbators are slotting him right now, then that's a huge win on the value scale. Don't sleep on Dimick.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

I'd rather see Kamara in the 2nd. Mahomes and Kamara would be ****ing great.

Marlon Mack > Kamara.

[CleveSteve]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Marlon Mack > Kamara.

Love me some Marlon Mack. Guy has been a stud since he was a freshman.