NFL Draft Sanchez is on KABC-LA: Draft decision coming - Page 31

**DaneMcCloud** · 01-04-2009, 07:29 PM

He stated that he'll decide in the next 3-4 days whether he'll return to USC or enter the NFL Draft.

When asked whether a possible USC National Championship awaits him in 2009: "USC is in that position every year".

I think he'll enter the draft.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 01-12-2009, 06:21 PM

That Lewin piece is impossible to read, but I know where it was going - I've read something similar before.

With that said, statistics can TRY to predict what may or may not happen in the future, but by no means are they a stone cold lock on what may happen.

Before 1999, you could have told me about a stat that the NFL has never had an UDFA QB, who was previously stocking shelves at Hy-Vee had ever won a SB and named SBMVP.

There is always someone who excels and someone who fails on each side of the argument.

88TG88 · 01-12-2009, 06:22 PM

Quote:

and Alabama's Brodie Croyle a bust

bowener · 01-12-2009, 06:23 PM

Something I read about a month back was that Gooddell had to send out a letter to college and pro teams telling them that a new agreement with the NFLPA would not change rookie pay for this year, or next. He had to do that because agents are calling and telling the underclassmen that it is the case this is the last season kids are going to get mountains of money. I just wonder if Sanchez has a guy whispering in his ear about the money and such.

KChiefs1 · 01-12-2009, 06:29 PM

good read from the 2008 draft.....

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/fea...rticleid=29927

There are only two underclassmen in this year's quarterback crop – Florida State fourth-year junior Xavier Lee and Oklahoma State true junior Bobby Reid. Neither will be drafted. Lee was more or less kicked off the Seminoles last season for skipping classes. Reid's claim to fame is being the subject of coach Mike Gundy's "I'm a Man" rant. But that doesn't mean this year's class of signal callers is weak. In fact, early entrant quarterbacks tend to have considerably less success at the next level than do tested seniors with 30+ college starts on their resume.

Two years ago, FootballOutsiders statistician Dave Lewin discovered that among early-round quarterbacks, college starts and completion rate are the two most telling predictors of NFL success. The theory has since been stolen by Gil Brandt of NFL.com and referenced by several other well known members of the media. Lewin's hypothesis has held remarkably true for quarterbacks drafted high over the past decade.

Here is a link to the original quarterback projection article. Lewin's premise is that because quarterbacks with the most starts are seen more by scouts, those scouts get a more sound evaluation. Some can be thrown off by physical prowess (see Kyle Boller, Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell), but the ultimate test of an elite QB is accuracy. If a QB is drafted high, he will likely already possess the necessary physical traits it takes to succeed. However, if he is not accurate, he is much more likely to fail.

I had a chance to interview Lewin for this column and have included some summarized commentary from our conversation for each quarterback in the top ten.

1. Brian Brohm, Louisville

Height/Weight: 6'3/224
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.79
Comparison: Carson Palmer
2007 Statistics: 308-of-473 (65.1%), 4,024 Yds, 30 Tds, 12 Ints, 3 Rush Tds

Positives: An all-state high school point guard who was drafted by the Rockies in 2004, Brohm is a natural athlete. He started three and a half years at Louisville and never completed under 63.6% of his passes. Brohm's release, touch, and all-around mechanics are outstanding. His preparation and passion for the game is comparable to Peyton Manning's. Brohm is adept at reading coverages and was effective in new coach Steve Kragthorpe's more pro-style offense after Bobby Petrino left for the Falcons in early 2007.

Negatives: Brohm tore his ACL ten games into the 2005 season and missed three games in 2006 following thumb surgery. Brohm also had surgery on his throwing shoulder in January of 2007, although he didn't appear to lose any arm strength, averaging 8.51 yards per attempt with more passes thrown and yards than ever.

Lewin on Brian Brohm: There is very little not to like about Brohm. People were turned off by Louisville's struggles in 2007, but Brohm stayed exceptionally accurate. He hardly ever threw interceptions in college. In terms of execution, Brohm compares to Tom Brady. He is as close to a surefire franchise quarterback as there is in this year's draft.

Verdict: Brohm's arm isn't on Andre Woodson's level, but his combination of accuracy, smarts, and work ethic is the best in the draft. Durability is a concern, but his specific injuries haven't been recurring. Brohm is unlikely to be the top QB taken because of all the hype surrounding Matt Ryan, but he has the best chance to be a Pro Bowl caliber player. Brohm is still likely to go in the middle of the first round, and could creep into the top ten.

3. Matt Ryan, Boston College

Height/Weight: 6'5/221
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.82
Comparison: pre-Super Bowl XLII Eli Manning
2007 Statistics: 388-of-654 (59.3%), 4,507 Yds, 31 Tds, 19 Ints, 2 rush Tds

Positives: Ryan redshirted as a freshman and took over for injured Quinton Porter as a third-year sophomore. He showed toughness playing through a foot injury as a junior. Ryan had a weak supporting cast at BC, but still found ways to win. He has ideal intangibles and is a proven leader. He doesn't have a cannon, but possesses good arm strength and can make most of the NFL-required throws. Ryan's best attributes are his picturesque delivery and consistency in the clutch.

Negatives: Ryan only started for two and a half seasons. His completion rates dropped each year. Ryan missed a game as a fourth-year junior with a high ankle sprain and underwent offseason foot surgery. He will force throws into coverage and threw too many picks as a senior. Ryan's upside is limited because of his only above average combination of athleticism and arm strength.

Lewin on Matt Ryan: Ryan's number of pass attempts as a senior is staggering and may have contributed to his modest completion rate. Ryan is like Carson Palmer in going through his progressions and his mechanics are flawless. But his production just wasn't that great in college and his inconsistent decision making sends up a red flag. People fall in love with guys like Matt Ryan, but he certainly isn't worth the No. 1 pick overall. Ryan would be a better fit in the second round.

Verdict: Ryan's completion percentage to college starts ratio is not nearly as impressive as Woodson or Brian Brohm's. He wasn't surrounded by great weapons, but did have an elite offensive line. Because he can look so special on film, Ryan will be a first-round pick and projects as a solid NFL starter. But his tendency to force things is a flaw that can be uncorrectable. Ryan's decision to withdraw from pre-draft events also will not help him on April 26.

9. Joe Flacco, Delaware

Height/Weight: 6'6/232
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 5.0
Comparison: Andrew Walter
2007 Statistics: 331-of-521 (63.5%), 4,263 Yds, 23 Tds, 5 Ints, 4 Rush Tds

Positives/Negatives: A classic dropback passer, Flacco has possibly the strongest pure arm in the draft. His accuracy at Delaware was solid, but Flacco faced weak D-IAA competition. He possesses tremendous size and is hard to bring down. However, Flacco played in a shotgun-heavy offense in college and struggled taking snaps from center at the Senior Bowl. His footwork is poor, and he has a slow dropback. Flacco also lacks any kind of mobility.

Lewin on Joe Flacco: Flacco's inability to beat out Tyler Palko for a starting job at Pitt sends up an immediate red flag. He posted good numbers in two seasons, but they still weren't on McNair or Chad Pennington's level. You want D-IAA guys to dominate like Josh Johnson. Flacco carries a lot of risk, and isn't worth a first-day pick.

Verdict: Flacco was behind Tyler Palko on the Pittsburgh depth chart early in his college career. He transferred to D-IAA Delaware, sat out the 2005 season, and began starting in 2006. Flacco has some intriguing tools, but wasn't good enough to beat out a quarterback that ultimately went undrafted and likely doesn't have a career in the NFL. Using reason, the idea that Flacco should be a second- or third-round draft pick is illogical. Flacco is more of a second-day to late second-day prospect who should be viewed as a project, not relied on to play within the next two seasons.

Mecca · 01-12-2009, 06:39 PM

QB guessing is a crapshoot starts stats whatever you use....

Right now there are 4 things I want to see....

1. Pro style offense
2. The size and physical talent to play at a high level at the next level
3. Proper mechanics and footwork
4. The intangible it factor to be a team leader

To me if you can find a QB that has those qualities 14 starts or 40 starts you take him.

eazyb81 · 01-12-2009, 06:44 PM

The bottom line is that we and NFL teams are trying to make predictions in a field where prediction is not possible. We can look at game tape, look at passing statistics, analyze height/weight/speed/strength, do background checks, give intelligence tests, etc, etc, etc....but in the end, there is nothing like being an NFL quarterback except being an NFL quarterback.

I just think the entire process of scouting QBs is fascinating, especially with the preponderance of the spread system. It makes an extremely difficult job virtually impossible.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 01-12-2009, 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eazyb81

The bottom line is that we and NFL teams are trying to make predictions in a field where prediction is not possible. We can look at game tape, look at passing statistics, analyze height/weight/speed/strength, do background checks, give intelligence tests, etc, etc, etc....but in the end, there is nothing like being an NFL quarterback except being an NFL quarterback.

I just think the entire process of scouting QBs is fascinating, especially with the preponderance of the spread system. It makes an extremely difficult job virtually impossible.

Agreed.

Mecca · 01-12-2009, 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eazyb81

The bottom line is that we and NFL teams are trying to make predictions in a field where prediction is not possible. We can look at game tape, look at passing statistics, analyze height/weight/speed/strength, do background checks, give intelligence tests, etc, etc, etc....but in the end, there is nothing like being an NFL quarterback except being an NFL quarterback.

I just think the entire process of scouting QBs is fascinating, especially with the preponderance of the spread system. It makes an extremely difficult job virtually impossible.

The spread thing is why you can't pass on one of these guys, just getting a highly thought of prospect out of a pro style offense is a huge thing right now.

88TG88 · 01-13-2009, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 88TG88

Taylor Mays is coming back.

count on it

right again

Sweet Daddy Hate · 01-13-2009, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 88TG88

right again

I'm more excited about the declaration deadline than Pioli; at least I KNOW I'll be getting some info. by a particular time.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 01-13-2009, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth CarlSatan

I'm more excited about the declaration deadline than Pioli; at least I KNOW I'll be getting some info. by a particular time.

This.

eazyb81 · 01-13-2009, 05:22 PM

Take it for what it's worth, but ESPN's Joe Schad just said he's hearing that Mark Sanchez is likely going to declare for this year's draft.

**DeezNutz** · 01-13-2009, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eazyb81

Take it for what it's worth, but ESPN's Joe Schad just said he's hearing that Mark Sanchez is likely going to declare for this year's draft.

And the good news might keep on coming. More juniors the better.

Rigodan · 01-13-2009, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eazyb81

Take it for what it's worth, but ESPN's Joe Schad just said he's hearing that Mark Sanchez is likely going to declare for this year's draft.

Please God let this be true!

Sweet Daddy Hate · 01-13-2009, 05:25 PM

YESSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

01-04-2009, 07:29 PM
DaneMcCloud Supporter Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Hollywood, CA Casino cash: $10053648	Sanchez is on KABC-LA: Draft decision coming He stated that he'll decide in the next 3-4 days whether he'll return to USC or enter the NFL Draft. When asked whether a possible USC National Championship awaits him in 2009: "USC is in that position every year". I think he'll enter the draft.
Posts: 88,960

01-12-2009, 06:21 PM	#451
OnTheWarpath15 MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $2191115	That Lewin piece is impossible to read, but I know where it was going - I've read something similar before. With that said, statistics can TRY to predict what may or may not happen in the future, but by no means are they a stone cold lock on what may happen. Before 1999, you could have told me about a stat that the NFL has never had an UDFA QB, who was previously stocking shelves at Hy-Vee had ever won a SB and named SBMVP. There is always someone who excels and someone who fails on each side of the argument.
Posts: 60,746

01-12-2009, 06:23 PM	#453
bowener BAMF! Join Date: Nov 2007 Casino cash: $9549897	Something I read about a month back was that Gooddell had to send out a letter to college and pro teams telling them that a new agreement with the NFLPA would not change rookie pay for this year, or next. He had to do that because agents are calling and telling the underclassmen that it is the case this is the last season kids are going to get mountains of money. I just wonder if Sanchez has a guy whispering in his ear about the money and such. __________________ Main Entry: bowe·ner Pronunciation: \ˈbō-nər\ Function: noun Date: circa 2007
Posts: 8,358

01-12-2009, 06:29 PM	#454
KChiefs1 I’m a Mahomo! Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Mid-Missouri Casino cash: $6771021	good read from the 2008 draft..... http://www.rotoworld.com/content/fea...rticleid=29927 There are only two underclassmen in this year's quarterback crop – Florida State fourth-year junior Xavier Lee and Oklahoma State true junior Bobby Reid. Neither will be drafted. Lee was more or less kicked off the Seminoles last season for skipping classes. Reid's claim to fame is being the subject of coach Mike Gundy's "I'm a Man" rant. But that doesn't mean this year's class of signal callers is weak. In fact, early entrant quarterbacks tend to have considerably less success at the next level than do tested seniors with 30+ college starts on their resume. Two years ago, FootballOutsiders statistician Dave Lewin discovered that among early-round quarterbacks, college starts and completion rate are the two most telling predictors of NFL success. The theory has since been stolen by Gil Brandt of NFL.com and referenced by several other well known members of the media. Lewin's hypothesis has held remarkably true for quarterbacks drafted high over the past decade. Here is a link to the original quarterback projection article. Lewin's premise is that because quarterbacks with the most starts are seen more by scouts, those scouts get a more sound evaluation. Some can be thrown off by physical prowess (see Kyle Boller, Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell), but the ultimate test of an elite QB is accuracy. If a QB is drafted high, he will likely already possess the necessary physical traits it takes to succeed. However, if he is not accurate, he is much more likely to fail. I had a chance to interview Lewin for this column and have included some summarized commentary from our conversation for each quarterback in the top ten. 1. Brian Brohm, Louisville Height/Weight: 6'3/224 College Experience: Fourth-year senior Projected 40: 4.79 Comparison: Carson Palmer 2007 Statistics: 308-of-473 (65.1%), 4,024 Yds, 30 Tds, 12 Ints, 3 Rush Tds Positives: An all-state high school point guard who was drafted by the Rockies in 2004, Brohm is a natural athlete. He started three and a half years at Louisville and never completed under 63.6% of his passes. Brohm's release, touch, and all-around mechanics are outstanding. His preparation and passion for the game is comparable to Peyton Manning's. Brohm is adept at reading coverages and was effective in new coach Steve Kragthorpe's more pro-style offense after Bobby Petrino left for the Falcons in early 2007. Negatives: Brohm tore his ACL ten games into the 2005 season and missed three games in 2006 following thumb surgery. Brohm also had surgery on his throwing shoulder in January of 2007, although he didn't appear to lose any arm strength, averaging 8.51 yards per attempt with more passes thrown and yards than ever. Lewin on Brian Brohm: There is very little not to like about Brohm. People were turned off by Louisville's struggles in 2007, but Brohm stayed exceptionally accurate. He hardly ever threw interceptions in college. In terms of execution, Brohm compares to Tom Brady. He is as close to a surefire franchise quarterback as there is in this year's draft. Verdict: Brohm's arm isn't on Andre Woodson's level, but his combination of accuracy, smarts, and work ethic is the best in the draft. Durability is a concern, but his specific injuries haven't been recurring. Brohm is unlikely to be the top QB taken because of all the hype surrounding Matt Ryan, but he has the best chance to be a Pro Bowl caliber player. Brohm is still likely to go in the middle of the first round, and could creep into the top ten. 3. Matt Ryan, Boston College Height/Weight: 6'5/221 College Experience: Fifth-year senior Projected 40: 4.82 Comparison: pre-Super Bowl XLII Eli Manning 2007 Statistics: 388-of-654 (59.3%), 4,507 Yds, 31 Tds, 19 Ints, 2 rush Tds Positives: Ryan redshirted as a freshman and took over for injured Quinton Porter as a third-year sophomore. He showed toughness playing through a foot injury as a junior. Ryan had a weak supporting cast at BC, but still found ways to win. He has ideal intangibles and is a proven leader. He doesn't have a cannon, but possesses good arm strength and can make most of the NFL-required throws. Ryan's best attributes are his picturesque delivery and consistency in the clutch. Negatives: Ryan only started for two and a half seasons. His completion rates dropped each year. Ryan missed a game as a fourth-year junior with a high ankle sprain and underwent offseason foot surgery. He will force throws into coverage and threw too many picks as a senior. Ryan's upside is limited because of his only above average combination of athleticism and arm strength. Lewin on Matt Ryan: Ryan's number of pass attempts as a senior is staggering and may have contributed to his modest completion rate. Ryan is like Carson Palmer in going through his progressions and his mechanics are flawless. But his production just wasn't that great in college and his inconsistent decision making sends up a red flag. People fall in love with guys like Matt Ryan, but he certainly isn't worth the No. 1 pick overall. Ryan would be a better fit in the second round. Verdict: Ryan's completion percentage to college starts ratio is not nearly as impressive as Woodson or Brian Brohm's. He wasn't surrounded by great weapons, but did have an elite offensive line. Because he can look so special on film, Ryan will be a first-round pick and projects as a solid NFL starter. But his tendency to force things is a flaw that can be uncorrectable. Ryan's decision to withdraw from pre-draft events also will not help him on April 26. 9. Joe Flacco, Delaware Height/Weight: 6'6/232 College Experience: Fifth-year senior Projected 40: 5.0 Comparison: Andrew Walter 2007 Statistics: 331-of-521 (63.5%), 4,263 Yds, 23 Tds, 5 Ints, 4 Rush Tds Positives/Negatives: A classic dropback passer, Flacco has possibly the strongest pure arm in the draft. His accuracy at Delaware was solid, but Flacco faced weak D-IAA competition. He possesses tremendous size and is hard to bring down. However, Flacco played in a shotgun-heavy offense in college and struggled taking snaps from center at the Senior Bowl. His footwork is poor, and he has a slow dropback. Flacco also lacks any kind of mobility. Lewin on Joe Flacco: Flacco's inability to beat out Tyler Palko for a starting job at Pitt sends up an immediate red flag. He posted good numbers in two seasons, but they still weren't on McNair or Chad Pennington's level. You want D-IAA guys to dominate like Josh Johnson. Flacco carries a lot of risk, and isn't worth a first-day pick. Verdict: Flacco was behind Tyler Palko on the Pittsburgh depth chart early in his college career. He transferred to D-IAA Delaware, sat out the 2005 season, and began starting in 2006. Flacco has some intriguing tools, but wasn't good enough to beat out a quarterback that ultimately went undrafted and likely doesn't have a career in the NFL. Using reason, the idea that Flacco should be a second- or third-round draft pick is illogical. Flacco is more of a second-day to late second-day prospect who should be viewed as a project, not relied on to play within the next two seasons. __________________ Last edited by KChiefs1; 01-12-2009 at 06:58 PM..
Posts: 54,038

01-12-2009, 06:39 PM	#455
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-532950	QB guessing is a crapshoot starts stats whatever you use.... Right now there are 4 things I want to see.... 1. Pro style offense 2. The size and physical talent to play at a high level at the next level 3. Proper mechanics and footwork 4. The intangible it factor to be a team leader To me if you can find a QB that has those qualities 14 starts or 40 starts you take him.
Posts: 115,273

01-12-2009, 06:44 PM	#456
eazyb81 The Illuminati Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: the road less traveled Casino cash: $9984900	The bottom line is that we and NFL teams are trying to make predictions in a field where prediction is not possible. We can look at game tape, look at passing statistics, analyze height/weight/speed/strength, do background checks, give intelligence tests, etc, etc, etc....but in the end, there is nothing like being an NFL quarterback except being an NFL quarterback. I just think the entire process of scouting QBs is fascinating, especially with the preponderance of the spread system. It makes an extremely difficult job virtually impossible.
Posts: 12,033

01-13-2009, 05:22 PM	#462
eazyb81 The Illuminati Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: the road less traveled Casino cash: $9984900	Take it for what it's worth, but ESPN's Joe Schad just said he's hearing that Mark Sanchez is likely going to declare for this year's draft.
Posts: 12,033

01-13-2009, 05:25 PM	#465
Sweet Daddy Hate Unsparing Join Date: Aug 2008 Casino cash: $10004900	YESSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! __________________ 1. Merciless, severe. 2. Given freely and generously. 100% refusal to overrate 20 year Head Coaches with ZERO **ing rings as a Head Coach. CP's Official Professor of 'Dem Blues for 2019/2020!**
Posts: 77,135