What Might Best Predict A DE's NFL Success?

[kcbubb]

http://www.catscratchreader.com/2012...es-nfl-success

What Might Best Predict A DE's NFL Success?
by PanthersRoar on Apr 7, 2012 10:27 PM EDT

A couple of days ago I posted "The Key Predictor Of A DT's NFL Success", and it was sparked by former Broncos GM Ted Sunquist that key number for DT's was their 3-cone drill time. I checked the top DT's from the last 2 drafts, and except for Marcell Dareus low of 7.83, it seemed to work. Well, that got me wondering if it might also work for DE's, so let's see if it did.

I've picked 5 of the top DE's from the last 2 drafts, based upon their draft position, and their performance. Sunquist said the 3-cone drill best represents a DT's lateral movement ( believe it represents their ability to change direction while running), I've chosen to add their 20-yard shuttle (it simulates their movement down the line, and reverse of direction on a cutback run), 10-yard split time (the distance to a QB on a pass rush), and 40 yard time (it represents chasing down plays, and I don't have a 10-yard split for some players).

40 Time - 10-Yard Split - 3-Cone Drill - 20-Yard Shuttle - Name - Size - "unofficial" 40



2011 Draft:

4.68 - 1.54 - 7.11 - 4.28 - Brooks Reed (6-3 7/8, 263), an "unofficial" 4.66-40

4.70 - 1.61 - 7.13 - 4.26 - Robert Quinn (6-4 3/8, 265), "unofficial" 4.59-40

4.78 - 1.66 - 7.19 - - NA - Aldon Smith (6-4 1/4, 263)

4.78 - 1.64 - 7.07 - 4.37 - Cameron Jordan (6-4 1/8, 287), "unofficial" 4.71-40

4.83 - 1.61 - 7.30 - 4.13 - Adrian Clayborn (6-3 1/8, 281)

The best rookie production came from Smith, Reed, Quin, and Clayborn, in that order.

2010 Draft:

4.71 - 1.61 - 7.21 - 4.61 - Carlos Dunlap (6-5 3/4, 277), "unoffical" 4.61-40

4.72 - 1.65 - 7.18 - 4.67 - Jason Pierre-Paul (6-4 3/4, 270), "unofficial" 4.64-40

4.78 - 1.60 - 7.12 - 4.43 - Derrick Morgan (6-3, 266)

4.88 - 1.68 - 7.61 - 4.71 - Lamarr Houston (6-2 7/8, 305), "unoffical" 4.85-40

4.96 - 1.75 - 7.13 - 4.64 - Greg Hardy (6-4 281), "unofficial" Pro Day 4.79-40, he was still recovering from an injury at the Combine.

This group is much bigger than the others, and thus less athletic. Lamarr Houston is really a DT who's played 3-4 DE for the Raiders his first 2 years.

2012 Draft:

4.64 - 1.57 - 7.25 - 4.66 - Nick Perry (6-2 3/4, 271), "unofficial" 4.50-40

4.68 - 1.56 - 7.03 - 4.49 - Whitney Mercilus (6-3 5/8, 261), "unoffical" 4.63-40

4.70 - 1.56 - 7.19 - 4.25 - Andre Branch (6-4 1/4, 259)

4.78 - 1.63 - 7.57 - 4.78 - Quinton Coples (6-5 3/4, 284)

4.79 - 1.72 - 6.83 - 4.18 - Melvin Ingram (6-1 7/8, 264)

4.81 - - NA - 7.73 - 4.6- - Courtney Upshaw (6-1 5/8, 279), "unoffical" 4.78-40

4.98 - 1.68 - 6.90 - 4.40 - Vinny Curry (6-3 1/8, 266), "unoffical" Pro Day 4.64-40 & 1.58-10 yard split.

This is generally the most athletic group of DE's, with 3 running faster 3-cone drills (Ingram 6.83, Curry 6.90, and Mercilus 7.03) than anyone in the 2010 or 2011 groups. Only 2 of this years DE's ran under a 4.40 20-yard shuttle (Branch 4.25 and Ingram 4.18), and both were faster than the 3 under 4.40 times in the 2011 group, but none in the 2010 group were able to run under a 4.43 shuttle. Nick Perry is the fastest of the DE's, but from his 3-cone (7.25) and 20-yard shuttle (4.66) times, it seems to be mostly straight line speed. While Ingram's straight line speed is just average, he has great change of direction speed, the fastest of all the DE's in the 3 groups. The gaps between Curry's Combine (4.98 and 1.68) and Pro Day (4.64 and 1.58) numbers is huge, but which player is he? I'm a fan of Mercilus 4.63, 1.56, and a 7.03 are great numbers, but his 4.49 shuttle is only average at best. Quinton Coples has the straight line speed (4.78 and 1.63), Charles Johnson only ran a 4.82-40, but his slow 3-cone drill (7.57) and 20-yard shuttle (4.78) are very disapointing.

This is just an off the wall thought, what if I add the 4 colums together, then see how they rank, and see if it might be a useful ranking tool.

2012 Draft:

17.52 - Melvin Ingram

17.70 - Andre Branch

17.76 - Whitney Mercilus

17.96 - Vinny Curry

18.12 - Nick Perry

18.76 - Quinton Coples

- NA - Courtney Upshaw (missing a 10-yard split)

2011 Draft:

17.61 - Brooks Reed

17.80 - Robert Quinn

17.86 - Cameron Jordan

17.87 - Adrian Claiborn

- NA - Aldon Smith

2010 Draft:

18.00 - Derrick Morgan

18.14 - Carlos Dunlaop

18.22 - Jason Pierre-Paul

18.31 - Greg Hardy

18.88 - Lamarr Houston

We all know that workout numbers aren't everything, so use them as you will. Do you think Sunquist might be onto something about the 3-cone drill for DT's, and do you think it might also work for DE's, or that the 40, 10, and 20 yard shuttle should also be included?

[buddha]

I do it based on STUD vs. PUSS. Melvin Ingram is a stud and a very bad man. Quintin Coples is a puss (looks like Tarzan plays like Jane). The fact that Ingram also has the workout numbers makes him very attractive as a DE. I think he is the best one on the board this year.

[Urc Burry]

How good their motor is. I don't know if Tamba Hali has taken a play off in his life.

[Mr. Laz]

quickness - gotta have that quick first step and quick feet to keep the OT's from locking on

attitude (motor) - hard work,determination ... not talking plays off is huge

body control - athletic enough to have good body lean and still maintain speed/power

[ChiefMojo]

Depends on what your looking for... a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 DE? Both do completely different roles.

[kcbubb]

The more I think about it, the more I like Ingram. He has the motor and the toughness that stopwatches and underwear tests just can't measure. He's a football player. He plays tough in the trenches when out matched by 40+lbs. His change of direction is awesome, very athletic. Catches the ball well (he was even on the hands team in college) and is very instinctive (3 TDs last year). He fits perfectly in our scheme and can play multiple positions from ILB, OLB and even DT on passing downs, definitely a 3 down player. He also provides great depth for multiple positions.

The Chiefs need a football player, not a combine star or underwear model. He reminds me of Tamba in that he's tough, never quits but didn't have elite combine numbers or measurables.

His 10 yard split is better than recorded on the posted article. I think 1.65 at combine and 1.61 at pro day.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201....dl/index.html

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/jet...-melvin-ingram

[Mecca]

The answer is...no one really knows. Hell I remember everyone hating JPP.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Mecca

The answer is...no one really knows. Hell I remember everyone hating JPP.

God, I despised him as a prospect.

[xztop12]

There's so many of these guys every year, its really hard to even tell. If you include the bigger 3-4 OLB guys in the group its really a large number and some of them are over-valued.

I always look for guys with unique physical talents, like JPP could do really crazy gymnastics... And Ingram is a midget compared to Coples and Jones, so you'd expect him to be quicker.... I like to look at the weirder attributes, like the fact that Ingram (on sports science) could dunk a basketball from a stand-still in full pads... Shows hes comfortable and has good shoulder mobility with shoulder pads on..

Basically, I'd have to have info that scouts have to be able to have any sort of clue, unless you could come up with some good mathematical alithogram

[beach tribe]

I think 3-4 linemen may be the hardest positions to evaluate in all of sports.

[ChiefMojo]

beach tribe you are right. 3-4 DL are so hard to evaluate because good DT's in general are very difficult to evaluate. Finding 3-4 DE's as a whole aren't difficult but finding good ones that do their job the way you want them to do is.

Personally when I'm looking at 3-4 DE's, I first off look at their height, weight, arm length, ability to engage/shed blocks, can they beat a double, etc. Do they stay within the confines of their position or do they try to become something they aren't (a pure pass rusher you find in a 4-3 DE). It is even harder when your evaluating DE's in a 2-Gap system. Unless the player played in that type of system in college, you have to project if they will be able to take on the demands of taking on 2-Gaps.

Imo the three best 3-4 DE's in this draft are Fletcher Cox, Michael Brockers and Kendall Reyes. Cox can play either 4-3 DT or 3-4 DE very well as imo Brockers and Reyes are purely a 3-4 DE's.

[buddha]

Originally Posted by Mecca

The answer is...no one really knows. Hell I remember everyone hating JPP.

Completely agree.

Nobody really could have predicted that Aldon Smith was going to explode like he did either.

There are "can't miss" guys like Gohlson in the past who completely missed.