Offseason Plan 5.0 - All-Star Game Edition

[kccrow]

Unrestricted Free Agents

ERIC BERRY, SS/FS (KC) - Berry may feel inclined to sign with the Chiefs given how they treated him in dealing with his cancer, but he's still one of the premier safeties in the league and will expect to be paid as such. I have Berry on the books for a Devin McCourty-like deal. Contract structure is 5 years, $48 million, with a $15 million signing bonus and $22.5 million in total guarantees (1st and 2nd year salaries). Cap hits are $6.5, 8.0, 10.0, 11.0, and 12.5 million.

MITCHELL SCHWARTZ, RT (CLE) - Scwhartz has quietly become one of the premier right tackles in the NFL and is the lone splash I have the Chiefs making in the market. Dorsey has shown he's willing to sign or trade for lineman and pay them fairly well. I have the Chiefs making Schwartz the highest paid RT (depending on how you view the future of Lane Johnson) in the NFL to get him here and fix their biggest hole on the front line. Contract structure is in line with what Bryan Bulaga received from the Packers at 5 years, $34 million, with an $8 million signing bonus and $9.25 in total guarantees (1st year salary). Cap hits are $3.6, 5.6, 7.5, 8.6, and 8.7 million.

DERRICK JOHNSON, ILB (KC) - Johnson should sign a deal similar in nature to Darryl Smith of Baltimore and within the Chiefs' cap restrictions as he won't likely see a big offer at his age if he leaves. I have Johnson at 2 years, $7.5 million, with a $2 million signing bonus and cap hits of $3.5 and $4.0 million.

NOLAN CARROLL, CB (PHI) - Nolan Carroll stepped up for the Eagles this past season as a starter and was playing extremely well before a broken ankle ended his season after 11 weeks. Carroll is a long, thick corner at 6'1" 205 with great speed (4.43), and plays similarly to Sean Smith. Carroll just turned 29, so he isn't a long-term type of guy, but he can be a great stand-in while the Chiefs develop their youth and is an insurance policy in the event Gaines isn't back at 100% to play the outside. Carroll should receive a contract similar to what Greg Toler received from Indianapolis. I have the contract structure at 3 years, $15 million, with a $3 million signign bonus and $6.5 million in total guarantees (1st year salary). Cap hits are $4.5, 5.0, and 5.5 million.

TAMBA HALI, OLB (KC) - Hali essentially played for 6 million (5 million bonus) last year but the Chiefs cap hit was a modest 2 million for the current portion of the deal (870,000 salary, 1 million signing bonus for reworking his deal, and 130,000 workout bonus) and a total cap hit just under 5 million in 2015. The 2016 vet minimum is $985,000 for players with 10 accrued seasons. I think Hali signs for that minimum and adds on a 1.515 million roster bonus to become fully guaranteed the first day of training camp, ending with a total cap hit of 3.5 million (includes the 1 million in bonus money prorated from last years deal). The Chiefs have 5 days after the Super Bowl before his contract voids and the 4 million in bonus money accelerates against this season's cap, so we'll likely know sooner than later what will happen with him.

SEAN WEATHERSPOON, ILB (ARI) - Weatherspoon was a very good linebacker on the verge of being one of the better one's in the league before he was injured during his contract year with Atlanta, missing 10 games. Weatherspoon signed a 1 year "prove it" deal with the Cardinals during the off-season, but ended up in Bruce Arians' dog house after he was nicked up with a hamstring injury for the bulk of the preseason and didn't see much of any regular season action. Weatherspoon went to college at Missouri, so going to the Chiefs could be something he considers if they can agree to terms. I have the Chiefs signing Weatherspoon to a Wesley Woodyard (TEN) type of deal, but as more of a "prove it" deal with more roster bonus money tied in as injury incentives ($500,000 in each of the first two seasons and $1,000,000 in each of the last two). I have the contract structure as 4 years, $16 million, with a $3 million signing bonus and $4 million in total guarantees (1st year salary). Cap hits of $2.25, 3.5, 4.75, and 5.5 million.

TYVON BRANCH, SS/FS/NB (KC) - Branch became an integral piece to Sutton's defense last season, so I expect he'll be a guy that the Chiefs will want to try to re-sign and he is younger than Husain Abdullah. I have Branch penciled in with a deal above Patrick Chung and in the top 40 range. Contract structure is 2 years, $5.4 million, with $1.6 million guarnteed and including $500,000 per year in game day incentives. Cap hits of $2.4 and 3.0 million.

MIKE DEVITO, DE (KC) - DeVito quietly had a really solid season for the Chiefs in a reserve role coming off his Achilles injury, and given he re-worked his contract to play for far less money last season, he could be a budget signing going into the end of his career. I have DeVito's contract structure in line with Chris Canty's (Baltimore) at 2 years, $4.885 million, with a $1.5 million signing bonus and including $500,000 in game day incentives. Cap hits of $1.885 and 3.0 million.

JASON AVANT, WR (KC) - Avant has been primarily a coach on the field during the week and limited contributor on Sunday's, but he's the kind of player Andy Reid will want to keep around as he continues to add more youth at the position. I have Avant signing for the vet minimum of $985,000 along with a $50,000 signing bonus and $30,000 in incentives which will give him a veteran discount cap hit of $680,000.

FRANK ZOMBO, OLB (KC) - Zombo is a core special teams player and solid part-time contributor on defense, so it only makes sense to re-sign him at the vet minimum of $760,000 with a $50,000 signing bonus and $30,000 in incentives, which will give him a veteran discount cap hit of $680,000.

Restricted Free Agents

CHARCANDRICK WEST, RB (KC) - West became a key piece to the Chiefs success in 2015 and they'll want him back. As an ERFA he has no choice but to sign for the vet minimum of $600,000.

DANIEL SORENSEN, SS (KC) - Sorensen was a key special teams player and part-time player in the secondary for the Chiefs. As an ERFA, he'll be back with no choice but to sign for the vet minimum of $600,000.

NICHOLAS WILLIAMS, DE (KC) - Williams is coming along as a 3-4 DE prospect for the Chiefs, having spent quite a bit of time on the active roster. He'll be back in 2016 and as an ERFA he'll sign for the vet minimum of $600,000.

DAVID KING, DE (KC) - Like Williams, King has also been a developmental DE for the Chiefs. He'll be back as well and as an ERFA he'll sign for the vet minimum of $600,000.

Let Walk

SEAN SMITH, CB
CHASE DANIEL, QB
HUSAIN ABDULLAH, FS
DONALD STEPHENSON, OT
JAYE HOWARD, DE
JAMELL FLEMING, CB
DEZMAN MOSES, OLB
JEFF ALLEN, OG/T

Estimated Cap Impact

Chiefs total $152,919,182. The estimated cap, announced at the owner's meeting, will be somewhere between $150.0 million and $153.4 million. My estimates are closer to the high end, and I expect $152 million. In any event, the Chiefs have an estimated rollover of $2.9 million. Using the low end cap figure with the rollover nets a cap of $152,951,340, leaving the Chiefs with total cap space of $32,158. Anything over $150 million, I'll consider space the Chiefs reserve to make in-season transactions. Cap hits for re-signings reflected and closely approximated (Kelce $2,948,226, Harris at $1,442,500, Reid at $1,825,000).

Draft Selections

1(028) WILL FULLER, WR (5'11" 185) Notre Dame
Lean with good muscle tone, good arm length, high cut with long legs. Solid lower body strength with sprinter traits and speed. Shows sudden burst, rapid stride, quick feet, lateral agility, and flexibility to elude and create in the open field. Quick-twitch athlete that can snap off routes. Explosive off the snap, closing cushions quickly and forcing defenders to play off the ball. Adjust his stride once hitting the second level to pull away from defenders deep, possessing excellent pure speed and might run in the 4.3's. Great vision as a runner, elusive. Relatively clean route runner. Finds soft spots and works to get open for his quarterback. Excellent hands, extends and plucks away from his frame. Incredible core flexibility and body control to contort his body adjusting to the football to make difficult catches. Slides to catch the ball within his frame, but can make acrobatic catches outside of his frame. Good field awareness and sideline awareness. Outstanding ability to track the deep ball. Patient setting up blocks on bubble screens.

2(059) ADOLPHUS WASHINGTON, DL (6'4" 297) Ohio State
Long player with good thickness throughout, good bubble. Washington shows excellent quickness at the snap, immediately eating up valuable space against offensive lineman. Displays a developed swim move and solid bull rush right away. Can make himself skinny and slide into lanes. Very disruptive player, allowing his teammates to feed off of him collapsing the pocket. Outstanding burst and closing speed to the ballcarrier. Takes good angles in pursuit. Will need to learn to use his hands better and needs to develop better play recognition. First round calibert talent that may fall due to insane depth along defensive line in this draft coupled with his recent arrest for soliciting a prostitute.

3(091) KAMALEI CORREA, DE (6'3" 245) Boise State
Correa is a compact player for the defensive end position but will fit in well as an outside or inside linebacker in a 3-4 defense in the NFL. Sports an explosive first step and excellent burst to get into defenders quickly. Maintains good balance and uses his hands extremely well to fight off lineman. Can jolt lineman backwards on initial contact. Excellent closing speed to the ball-carrier. Very good recovery speed and change of direction ability to make second effort plays. Great lateral quickness to make plays away from his area. Can get skinny and slip past blockers. Plays the run very well, especially for his size. An impact pass rusher. Sports the athletic ability to also make a move inside, similar to Jaime Collins in New England. Size, competition, and a deep draft along the defensive front may be the only reasons Correa may slip in this draft.

4(127) D.J. WHITE, CB (5'11" 189) Georgia Tech
White is a well built, athletic player with good musculature and strength for his size. Excellent press coverage. Good short area quickness and solid deep speed. Flexible athlete, exhibiting excellent body control to turn and play the football. Click and close defender against the run and hits with authority using textbook form. Fluid hips and quick feet in transition. Reads the quarterback and breaks on balls well. Experienced in press man and off man. High points on the ball and breaks up quite a few plays. Excellent field awareness to find ball-carriers away from his area. Hustle player. May struggle against larger receivers and top-flight speed.

5(162) SEAN DAVIS, FS (6'1" 201) Maryland
Davis sports an athletic frame with a good build for either cornerback or free safety. He has long arms, a well built upper body, and long legs. Davis is a very aggressive defender, which is a big reaosn he's excellent playing downhill with the action in front of him. Davis has very quick feet and excellent closing speed to come downhill and make tackles. Extremely explosive hitter. Plays the ball well in the air and generally gets his head turned to the football. Good leaping abilty. Ace special teams gunner. Has developed a knack for forcing turnovers. Experience at corner, which makes him a valuable every down defender. Doesn't exhibit good enough footwork and technique to immediately play the boundry, but doesn't appear to be limited athletically if a team wanted to put him there. High backpeddle and clunky transition at this point, common with long-legged players. Gets overally aggressive with his hands at times in pass coverage. Will be at his best as a free safety or nickle defender in the NFL.

5(167) TYLER JOHNSTONE, OT (6'6" 295) Oregon
Johnstone is a long, well-proportioned player with good thickness throughout but should add about 20 pounds in the pros. Looks to have long arms. Not too highly cut for his height. Sports excellent quickness off the snap either getting into the pads of defenders immediately or dropping into his solid kick slide. Generates decent pop into defenders with his hands, but needs to develop more upper body strength for the pros. Technically sound in most aspects. Keeps his hands inside on the defender. Generates solid movement drive blocking in the run game. Can adequately get up on second level blocks. Generally keeps his shoulders square on the perimeter and rides defenders around the pocket. Needs work on his power step to cut off inside moves. Needs to continue working on keeping square and keeping ready hands, sometimes allowing his arms to fall and letting defenders get leverage before having to recover. Must generate better foot movement after contact in the run game. Was looking to be a 1st round player before consecutive ACL injuries. May still be a 2nd day prospect depending on how teams feel about his time missed. Will require thorough medical evaluations.

6(208) JEFF DRISKEL, QB (6'4" 230) Louisiana Tech
Driskel has prototypical NFL size at the QB position with well-distributed weight. Pro-ready set-up and delivery of the football, giving him solid accuracy and good velocity on the ball. Shows good touch on fade/corner routes. Good trajectory and accuracy on deep balls. Needs better accuracy on lateral passes. Athletic with the ability to create plays with his legs. Good pocket awareness, climbs the pocket, protects the ball, moves around well, and scrambles to avoid defenders. Capable of progressing through reads. Like all rookie QBs, will need work on those read progressions. Primary concern is poor body of work at Florida followed by primary success coming from shotgun spread at lower level of competition. Shows developed pro traits and could be a late bloomer/steal prospect if he continues to put it all together.

7(249) HUNTER SHARP, WR (5'11" 199) Utah State
Sharp is a smaller receiver but has decent bulk and good overall musculature with longer legs and thick shoulders. Explosive off the line, accelerating quickly into routes, with a burst at the top that can leave defenders in his wake. Quick and fast athlete overall. Agile and shows some wiggle to create in the open field. Flexible athlete that adjusts well to the ball in the air. Good punt and kick returner. Extremely productive given the run heavy offense he played in. Decent open field blocker. Inconsistent hands, will drop some easy passes but will also make some spectacular ones. To his credit, terrible QB play with a duck one pass and one rifled in the next and rarely on target, in stride. Cousin to Derrick Johnson.

Offseason Roster
(Less any UDFAs/Lower Tier UFA pick-ups. * Denotes rookie)

QB: Alex Smith, Aaron Murray, Tyler Bray, Jeff Driskel*
RB: Jamaal Chalres, Spencer Ware, Charcandrick West, Knile Davis, De'Anthony Thomas, Darrin Reaves, Deveron Carr
FB: Anthony Sherman, Trey Millard
TE: Travis Kelce, James O'Shaughnessy, Demetrius Harris, Brian Parker Ross Travis
WR: Jeremy Maclin, Will Fuller*, Chris Conley, Albert Wilson, Jason Avant, Hunter Sharp*, Frankie Hammond, Da'Ron Brown, Fred Williams, Kenny Cook
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Jah Reid (OG), Tyler Johnstone*, Reid Fragel, Curtis Feigt, Laurence Gibson
OG: Ben Grubbs, Zach Fulton (OC), Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff, Paul Fanaika, Jarrod Pughsley (OT), Michael Liedtke
OC: Mitch Morse, Daniel Munyer
DE: Allen Bailey, Mike DeVito, Adolphus Washington*, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, David King, Niko Davis
DT: Dontari Poe, Nicholas Williams (DE), Alameda Ta'amu, Jimmy Staten
OLB: Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, Dee Ford, Kamalei Correa*, Frank Zombo, Cameron Gordon (ILB), Tyrell Adams (ILB)
ILB: Derrick Johnson, Sean Weatherspoon, Josh Mauga, Ramik Wilson, Justin March, DJ Alexander
CB Marcus Peters, Nolan Carroll, Phillip Gaines, Steven Nelson, D.J. White*, Marcus Cooper, Keith Lewis
FS: Ron Parker, Tyvon Branch (NB), Sean Davis* (CB), Jordan Kovacs
SS Eric Berry, Daniel Sorensen
ST: Cairo Santos (K), Dustin Colquitt (P), James Winchester (LS)

Projected 53-Man

QB(3) - A. Smith, A. Murray, J. Driskel*
RB(3) - J. Charles, S. Ware, C. West
FB(1) - A. Sherman
WR(5) - J. Maclin, W. Fuller*, C. Conley, A. Wilson, H. Sharp*
TE(3) - T. Kelce, J. O'Shaughnessy, D. Harris
OL(9) - E. Fisher, M. Schwartz, J. Reid, B. Grubbs, M. Morse, Z. Fulton, L. Duvernay-Tardiff, J. Pughsley, T. Johnstone*
DL(6) - D. Poe, A. Bailey, M. DeVito, A. Washington*, N. Williams, R. Nunez-Roches
OLB(5) - J. Houston, T. Hali, D. Ford, K. Correa*, F. Zombo
ILB(5) - D. Johnson, S. Weatherspoon, J. Mauga, R. Wilson, J. March
CB(5) - M. Peters, N. Carroll, P. Gaines, S. Nelson, D. White*
DB(5) - E. Berry, R. Parker, T. Branch, S. Davis*, D. Sorensen
ST(3) - C. Santos, D. Colquitt, J. Winchester

Synopsis

There's obviously going to be quite a few questions raised about not signing Sean Smith nor Jaye Howard to long-term deals, while offering one to Mitchell Schwartz when the Chiefs just signed Jah Reid to a contract extension.

Let's be honest, Jah Reid was anything but "good" outside at tackle, but he looked a bit serviceable at guard. I'll be the first to say I very much disliked the deal Dorsey offered up to Reid and I feel as though he's thrown quite a bit of cash at below average players along the front line. This is the same front line that was inconsistent and nearly got Alex Smith killed on several occasions. Mitchell Schwartz isn't only a significant upgrade, he's the best right tackle in the NFL.

While Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff and Zach Fulton have made tremendous strides as late-round draft selections, they are far and away subpar starters at the guard position. At this point, I'm more than comfortable listing Reid as the odds on favorite to win the right guard spot heading into 2016 if the Chiefs can add a good tackle like Schwartz. Fulton is a capable back-up at both guard and center, but isn't starting material. While LDT has grown, he still lacks considerable strength to be a full-time starter.

If Ben Grubbs can return to health at left guard, a starting lineup of Fisher, Grubbs, Morse, Reid, and Schwartz would be a significant upgrade over what we've seen over the past few seasons. I also add Tyler Johnstone in this scenario, who looked like a first round lock before his knee injuries. If he continues to rebuild his lower body strength and ascend off of his good play of 2015, he could be a legitimate "sleeper" prospect as an NFL left tackle.

There will be those who say that letting go of Jeff Allen is a mistake, but I really don't think so. Jeff Allen was subpar more often than not throughout his career here, and while 2015 might have been his best year, he is still very average. Additionally, Allen just cannot remain healthy, and unless he'd sign for a very team friendly deal laden with injury incentives, I can't see the Chiefs bringing him back.

Onto the Jaye Howard situation. Jaye Howard has become a very good football player, but with only one season of top level production, I just can't see spending the type of money I'm assuming it will require to retain his services. Not only that, the 2016 draft is one of the best defensive line drafts I've seen in the past decade. First round caliber talents will almost assuredly be available late into the second round. If there is a time to pass the dollars off, there is no better time than now.

And onto Sean Smith... While I like Sean Smith as a $6-7 million per year cornerback, I don't like him as a $10 million per cornerback, and that is likely what it will take to retain his services in the current market. Smith gets beat over the top often enough and he really fared better than his average this season due to teams targeting rookie Marcus Peters instead. I really believe the Chiefs can function with solid play opposite Peters and I think Gaines and Nelson can provide that. They, obviously, cannot function with the sub-par play that Cooper and Fleming provided, but Gaines has proven he's far better than either and Nelson has flashed ability in limited action. To fortify the position, I add Nolan Carroll on a 3 year deal that makes him a cut option after the first year, and I also add a good play-maker in D.J. White in the middle of the draft.

Instead of re-signing big dollar guys, I instead chose to bring back several important veterans that get the job done, including Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Mike DeVito, and Tyvon Branch. I think the sum of the parts is greater than a single piece and I just can't fathom this defense losing that much talent for one or two guys. I also feel like adding a key cog on the offensive line is a much better play, and will make the Chiefs less of a one-dimensional team.

Onto the draft, I really looked for explosive players and play-makers. Fuller is a taller version of DeSean Jackson and could add that explosive second receiving option that the offense is missing. Coupled with better offensive line play, this could put the Chiefs over the top on the offensive side of the football.

Adolphus Washington and Kamalei Correa are both very explosive defenders that can push the pocket in a hurry, something the Chiefs proved they can ill-afford to lose due to injuries. I see Washington as a much more athletic defensive end than Howard was and a guy that should be able to create more pressure and more negative plays. Correa is explosive out of his stance and plays the run really well. He's a little on the small side, but his athleticism might let him play inside as well. Having multiple pass rushers on the field at once is never a bad thing.

In the defensive backfield, I more or less filled holes, but went for guys that make plays on the football. Neither DB is likely going to get 8 picks in a rookie season like Peters, but these are guys that can get 3-4 picks in a season. Both guys tackle really well, which is something the Chiefs are good at and should want to retain. I think White has the skills to come in and play the nickle spot immediately if need be. Davis has potential to be an impact special teams player immediately and develop into a really good defensive back in time. He's got some great traits, having also played some corner.

The last two picks are, more-or-less, luxury selections. I think the back-up QB position needs more competition and I see a whole bunch of Alex Smith in Driskel. That may not be popular with the masses, but if Alex Smith was a 6th round pick and was your back-up, you'd be thrilled. I'm not convinced that Murray has the arm, nor Bray the brain, to be anything significant in the NFL. We'll see. Sharp is a guy to add to the WR depth and he is DJs cousin, so there is that family mentor connection there, plus Sharp has the skills to be a really good return man in the NFL, something Frankie Hammond has proven not to be.

There you have it, chop away.