Leage wide homefield advantage down in 2006

**cdcox** · 09-06-2007, 12:06 AM

I'm just now getting into my development cycle for my 2007 playoff prediction software. The focus this year is more accurate prediction of single game outcomes.

Something that is jumping out is that homefield advantage was way down in '06 compared to '05.

Home teams won only 53% of the games in 2006, compared to 59% the year before.

In the second half of the season, home teams won only 47.6% of the games in 2006. The average team was better off going on the road.

I used FO statistics to adjust for strength of home teams vs. strength of away teams. This analysis showed that playing at home against an evenly matched team would yield a home victory of only 53% of the time, compared to 56% of the time in '05.

My own power ratings show a decrease in HFA in '06 compared to earlier years.

No matter how you anyalyze it, home field advantage was way down last year. The results are significant at the 95% confidence interval no matter how you slice it. I don't know if this is a one-year fluke or a new trend. But it hasn't been reported much as far as I can tell.

Anyone care to speculate why this may be?

09-06-2007, 12:06 AM	Topic Starter
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $-568231	Leage wide homefield advantage down in 2006 I'm just now getting into my development cycle for my 2007 playoff prediction software. The focus this year is more accurate prediction of single game outcomes. Something that is jumping out is that homefield advantage was way down in '06 compared to '05. Home teams won only 53% of the games in 2006, compared to 59% the year before. In the second half of the season, home teams won only 47.6% of the games in 2006. The average team was better off going on the road. I used FO statistics to adjust for strength of home teams vs. strength of away teams. This analysis showed that playing at home against an evenly matched team would yield a home victory of only 53% of the time, compared to 56% of the time in '05. My own power ratings show a decrease in HFA in '06 compared to earlier years. No matter how you anyalyze it, home field advantage was way down last year. The results are significant at the 95% confidence interval no matter how you slice it. I don't know if this is a one-year fluke or a new trend. But it hasn't been reported much as far as I can tell. Anyone care to speculate why this may be?
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