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**digger** · 09-06-2012, 05:08 PM

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...best-nfl-stats

Football's Pythagorean Theorem

In a Sentence: Point differential is a better indicator of future winning percentage than winning percentage itself.
How It Works: Created by Bill James for baseball and modified for football in the early '90s by current Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, the Pythagorean theorem (or "Pythagorean expectation") is a formula that translates a team's points scored and allowed into an "expected" winning percentage. That formula isn't exactly for the faint of heart:
Points For^2.37 / (Points For^2.37 + Points Against^2.37)
As an example, let's take the 2011 Chiefs, who went 7-9 while scoring 212 points and allowing 338. Our formula is 212^2.37 / (212^2.37 + 338^2.37) = 0.248. That's the Chiefs' expected winning percentage from their point differential, and if we multiply it by 16 games, we get a total of just 4.0 wins. The Pythagorean theorem suggests that the Chiefs outperformed their true level of performance by three full wins.

See we did better last year.

09-06-2012, 05:08 PM	Topic Starter
digger Thread I will end you....... Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Kansas City, KS Casino cash: $-1300000 VARSITY	NFL Stats http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...best-nfl-stats Football's Pythagorean Theorem In a Sentence: Point differential is a better indicator of future winning percentage than winning percentage itself. How It Works: Created by Bill James for baseball and modified for football in the early '90s by current Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, the Pythagorean theorem (or "Pythagorean expectation") is a formula that translates a team's points scored and allowed into an "expected" winning percentage. That formula isn't exactly for the faint of heart: Points For^2.37 / (Points For^2.37 + Points Against^2.37) As an example, let's take the 2011 Chiefs, who went 7-9 while scoring 212 points and allowing 338. Our formula is 212^2.37 / (212^2.37 + 338^2.37) = 0.248. That's the Chiefs' expected winning percentage from their point differential, and if we multiply it by 16 games, we get a total of just 4.0 wins. The Pythagorean theorem suggests that the Chiefs outperformed their true level of performance by three full wins. See we did better last year.
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