Chiefs QB Non-controversy - Page 2

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 05:32 PM

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/1...and-the-qb-non

Since the bye week, Smith is throwing deep on 20 percent of his attempts. He is 4-for-13 for 120 yards, with one touchdown. A 30 percent completion rate might not sound like much, but that's what you expect from all quarterbacks in the league on deep balls. If anyone is consistently completing more than 40 percent, you get suspicious.

There is a slight discrepancy in the PFR and PFF deep ball definition. But for our purposes, this is negligible. Because the point is that the Chiefs did not start dialing it up more, or throwing it more, just because Foles was in the game. The game-plan was: let's challenge deep and focus on Kelce. Both Smith and Foles did just that. And both did it at a rate-per-attempt that would be among the most aggressive units in the league, if PFF's numbers are any indication.

Against the Colts, Smith was 4-of-5 for 66 yards to Travis Kelce. He targeted Kelce on 26 percent of attempts.
Foles was 3-of-5 for 35 yards to Travis Kelce. He targeted Kelce on 23 percent of attempts.

Alex Smith >> Foles > Bray

Foles can definitely beat the Jags by at least 10 if he plays smart. If he's gambling on these deep balls come Sunday without having a well-rounded game we could be in for a very, very rough afternoon.

WhiteWhale · 11-02-2016, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

Just As DJLN has been saying all over the threads...

"This is why Smith sets interception records and completion records. A lot of people said Smith's low interception rate was unsustainable when he nearly set the NFL record in 2011. But they didn't understand that it was completely sustainable because it wasn't due to luck, or to some statistical anomaly, but due to scheme. Smith was throwing short. Those passes are easier to complete and less likely to be picked off. The reverse is true of guys who throw deep all the time. Low interception rates and high completion rates are unsustainable when you throw deep. If much of a QB's success is from the deep game, then that QB's success is also unsustainable."

This makes quite the claim that makes sense theoretically, but totally falls on it's face when you look at the NFL.

Primarily because it appears to define success exclusively as 'not throwing interceptions'.

While it's a BIT more complicated than that, otherwise the most conservative QB's would consistently be the most successful. I mean, there's half a century of evidence that this is a bad hypothesis.

That is to say nothing about Foles vs. Smith. I'm just not getting into that on this forum.

**Ming the Merciless** · 11-02-2016, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

You're a ****ing idiot

That's actually really not fair to all of the other idiots around here.

This guy is on a whole notha level

Reerun_KC · 11-02-2016, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

That's actually really not fair to all of the other idiots around here.

This guy is on a whole notha level

Be careful. He will be crying to the mods soon saying you hurt his feelings.

Hammock Parties · 11-02-2016, 05:49 PM

You posted this in another thread. No one wants to read this tripe. Four deep completions in three weeks is poverty quarterbacking.

**SAUTO** · 11-02-2016, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Be careful. He will be crying to the mods soon saying you hurt his feelings.

**** him.

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 11-02-2016, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASS11

You posted this in another thread. No one wants to read this tripe. Four deep completions in three weeks is poverty quarterbacking.

How's geno smith these days?

Hammock Parties · 11-02-2016, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

How's geno smith these days?

He's still in the league which I bet is more than Alex can say in a couple years.

**The Franchise** · 11-02-2016, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

How's geno smith these days?

Not sitting out with a non-concussion.

Sandy Vagina · 11-02-2016, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASS11

You posted this in another thread. No one wants to read this tripe. Four deep completions in three weeks is poverty quarterbacking.

"Just bury your head in the sand, and wait for your ****ing prom!"

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 11-02-2016, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Not sitting out with a non-concussion.

Getting paid over 1 million this week to take a break when the team is playing a bottom dweller.

Only in your dreams would your life be this nice, Pest.

Sweet Daddy Hate · 11-02-2016, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/1...and-the-qb-non

Since the bye week, Smith is throwing deep on 20 percent of his attempts. He is 4-for-13 for 120 yards, with one touchdown. A 30 percent completion rate might not sound like much, but that's what you expect from all quarterbacks in the league on deep balls. If anyone is consistently completing more than 40 percent, you get suspicious.

There is a slight discrepancy in the PFR and PFF deep ball definition. But for our purposes, this is negligible. Because the point is that the Chiefs did not start dialing it up more, or throwing it more, just because Foles was in the game. The game-plan was: let's challenge deep and focus on Kelce. Both Smith and Foles did just that. And both did it at a rate-per-attempt that would be among the most aggressive units in the league, if PFF's numbers are any indication.

Against the Colts, Smith was 4-of-5 for 66 yards to Travis Kelce. He targeted Kelce on 26 percent of attempts.
Foles was 3-of-5 for 35 yards to Travis Kelce. He targeted Kelce on 23 percent of attempts.

Alex Smith >> Foles > Bray

Foles can definitely beat the Jags by at least 10 if he plays smart. If he's gambling on these deep balls come Sunday without having a well-rounded game we could be in for a very, very rough afternoon.

That's all well and good, but not this Sunday, sugar-tits.

Rasputin · 11-02-2016, 07:03 PM

What's so bad about throwing it deep on third and long taking a chance if it get's intercepted and the defender gets tackled you were going to punt the ball on fourth down anyways so you at least increase the chance of making a big play down field. Just a thought.

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 11-02-2016, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC Tattoo

What's so bad about throwing it deep on third and long taking a chance if it get's intercepted and the defender gets tackled you were going to punt the ball on fourth down anyways so you at least increase the chance of making a big play down field. Just a thought.

A large percentage of interceptions are returned for significant yards... We have one of the best punters in the league who helps us maintain field position. That's why

In58men · 11-02-2016, 07:20 PM

I can't wait to see Foles hit Hill for another bomb and the camera goes straight to Alex.

"Hey.....hey Alex.....did ya...did ya see that pass"?

ThaVirus · 11-02-2016, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASS11

You posted this in another thread. No one wants to read this tripe. Four deep completions in three weeks is poverty quarterbacking.

Against three of the worst defenses in the league

11-02-2016, 05:26 PM
TigeRRUppeRRcut Banned Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: 19th Hole Casino cash: $10004725	QB Non-controversy http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/1...and-the-qb-non Since the bye week, Smith is throwing deep on 20 percent of his attempts. He is 4-for-13 for 120 yards, with one touchdown. A 30 percent completion rate might not sound like much, but that's what you expect from all quarterbacks in the league on deep balls. If anyone is consistently completing more than 40 percent, you get suspicious. There is a slight discrepancy in the PFR and PFF deep ball definition. But for our purposes, this is negligible. Because the point is that the Chiefs did not start dialing it up more, or throwing it more, just because Foles was in the game. The game-plan was: let's challenge deep and focus on Kelce. Both Smith and Foles did just that. And both did it at a rate-per-attempt that would be among the most aggressive units in the league, if PFF's numbers are any indication. Against the Colts, Smith was 4-of-5 for 66 yards to Travis Kelce. He targeted Kelce on 26 percent of attempts. Foles was 3-of-5 for 35 yards to Travis Kelce. He targeted Kelce on 23 percent of attempts. Alex Smith >> Foles > Bray Foles can definitely beat the Jags by at least 10 if he plays smart. If he's gambling on these deep balls come Sunday without having a well-rounded game we could be in for a very, very rough afternoon. Last edited by TigeRRUppeRRcut; 11-02-2016 at 05:32 PM..
Posts: 11,680

11-02-2016, 05:49 PM	#19
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $1020478	You posted this in another thread. No one wants to read this tripe. Four deep completions in three weeks is poverty quarterbacking. __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 296,745

11-02-2016, 07:03 PM	#27
Rasputin Tip of the hat LIV Champs Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: ks Casino cash: $235421	What's so bad about throwing it deep on third and long taking a chance if it get's intercepted and the defender gets tackled you were going to punt the ball on fourth down anyways so you at least increase the chance of making a big play down field. Just a thought. __________________ "Those who don't believe in magic will never find it"
Posts: 56,907

11-02-2016, 07:20 PM	#29
In58men I didn’t say mud, I said crud. Join Date: Jan 2012 Casino cash: $-1361974	I can't wait to see Foles hit Hill for another bomb and the camera goes straight to Alex. "Hey.....hey Alex.....did ya...did ya see that pass"? __________________ Attendance Chief record 11-9
Posts: 30,789

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