Steve Spagnuolo: The Man with Four Aces Up His Sleeve

[pugsnotdrugs19]

PREFACE: This SI article is from December of 2016, so it's not brand new. But I do think it is very insightful and worth the read for KC fans.

LINK: https://www.si.com/mmqb/2016/12/27/n...ve-coordinator

ARTICLE:

Spoiler!

By JENNY VRENTAS December 27, 2016

Steve Spagnuolo has lived through the abnormal life cycle of the NFL coaching business. He’s been the Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator who was one of the most coveted head-coaching candidates. Then, there was that year in Baltimore when he had the makeshift title of senior defensive assistant.

“I never doubted myself,” he says now. “You ask questions, why? Because usually when you go through things like that, there are all different circumstances. There is not one reason.”

Now, back in the same job he held nine years ago, Spagnuolo has once again unlocked success as the Giants’ defensive coordinator. New York’s $200 million free-agent spending spree on three defensive playmakers—NT Damon Harrison, DE Olivier Vernon and CB Janoris Jenkins—turned heads. But the most important offseason move may have been retaining Spagnuolo on new coach Ben McAdoo’s staff.

The move was largely unheralded at the time. After all, the last two defenses that Spagnuolo coordinated, the 2015 Giants and the 2012 Saints, both ranked last in the league in yards allowed and in the bottom three in in points allowed. But the circumstance that doomed last year’s unit was a glaring lack of talent, so much so that team co-owner John Mara said after last season, “We do not have enough championship-caliber players.” Now, with a defense that ranks third in the league in points allowed, the Giants are on their way to the postseason for the first time since 2011.

Spagnuolo deserves credit because there have been plenty of examples in NFL history when free-agent spending sprees didn’t turn anything around. This year’s Jaguars are one example, and everyone remembers the Eagles’ ill-fated “Dream Team” in 2011. Spagnuolo’s creativity distinguished him with the 2007 Giants’ Super Bowl XLII defense, when he devised the “Four Aces” package featuring four pass rushers. He’s mixed and matched this year, too, blending the old parts with the new pieces better than anyone could have imagined.

In the secondary alone, Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and rookie Eli Apple have changed roles throughout the year based on injuries, matchups and performance. He’s done the same at linebacker, where there was no big free-agent signing. Two of the Giants’ best defensive performances of the season, a 10-7 win against Dallas in Week 14 and a 17-6 win against Detroit a week later, came after Jason Pierre-Paul had season-ending groin surgery.

“Really, more than anything, some of the new guys came in with an attitude of team unity and molding things together,” Spagnuolo says. “That doesn’t normally happen when you are new, coming from [other teams]. But we had a little bit of a void there. A year ago Jon Beason got hurt, and we kind of lost leadership. So when we came back this year, somebody was going to surface. And it really has been new guys like Damon Harrison and Janoris Jenkins, plus [captain] Jonathan Casillas. Damon Harrison, to me, he’s the glue. He’s the leader and the guy that can straighten things out. I think guys respond to him.

“It’s a credit to the players who were here and have embraced new guys who were getting paid some money. That’s important. And it’s a credit to the guys who came in and accepted roles … they didn’t come storming in.”

But it’s also a big credit to Spagnuolo, who has rewarded the team’s faith in him. It’s not always easy to discern good coaching behind the scenes, but a great example has been Landon Collins. The Giants drafted the former Alabama safety at the top of the second round in 2015; questions about his ball skills caused him to slide that far. But Spagnuolo, from Day 1, was adamant about not putting restrictions on his players. “You can always improve,” he said about Collins then. “Sometimes guys have to take it upon themselves to get better at a skill by putting the time in … So, we’ll push that.”

Both Spagnuolo and safeties coach David Merritt started putting in that work with Collins at his rookie minicamp. Collins’ emergence as a Pro Bowler in 2016 has been a driving force behind the Giants’ success. Last year, he dropped what would have been a game-winning interception in what instead became a close loss to the Patriots. This year, he’s been making those kinds of plays—a game-clinching interception in Week 11 against Chicago, for example. After beating the Lions, Collins praised Spagnuolo for “turning us loose” this season, a reference to the versatile ways in which he’s used Collins, including as a blitzer.

With an offense that hasn’t scored 20 points since November, the Giants will have to count on their defense to go deep into the playoffs. The D, however, has tripped up on its own a few times. In last week’s 24-19 loss in Philadelphia, with Jenkins sidelined by a back injury and Harrison missing some plays with a knee injury, the Giants struggled to contain rookie QB Carson Wentz, who used his legs to evade sacks and scramble for a few first downs. Spagnuolo, though, has seemed to know what tone to hit with his players at critical points in the season. After Pierre-Paul’s injury, he empowered rookie Romeo Okwara to seize a bigger role. After the Giants’ second win over the Cowboys, he emphasized that he did not want that to be their best game—and they followed up with the suffocating win over Detroit.

Perhaps Spagnuolo’s steadiness is best confirmed by the “up and down” career path, as he calls it, that he’s followed over the past few years. He spent three seasons as the Rams’ head coach, compiling a 10-38 record. He was fired following the 2011 season, and then got one year in New Orleans to try to turn the Saints defense around. When he was fired from that coordinator job, he worked his way back up, starting with the senior defensive assistant job in Baltimore, and then another year there as assistant head coach/secondary coach.

“You learn that you’ve gotta keep faith,” Spagnuolo says. “I am a strong man of God, and I relied on that a lot in the down times. My wife was very helpful. And I never lost confidence. I always felt, you just keep doing what you are doing in this profession, and you work your way back up. But I don’t really feel like I have gotten anywhere yet.”

He adds: “The years when you are way up top and they give you all that credit, all that credit is not valid because it takes more than one person. The same thing when you are down. It is not always one person’s fault. There are a lot of reasons for having good stats and bad … and I am not a stat guy. It has always been about players developing. In New Orleans, I didn’t get a chance. You are going to need more than eight months to develop guys, we didn’t [get that], and that’s OK. Now that we have had the chance to do that here, I think it is working out pretty good.”

Spagnuolo says he still gets a text after every game, congratulating him on the job he’s done. The sender is Tom Coughlin, the former Giants coach who hired Spagnuolo in 2007 and hired him again in 2015. Spagnuolo says he is “still hurt” that the performance of the defense contributed to Coughlin’s ouster after 12 seasons on New York’s sideline. “I hurt that it hurt Tom,” he Spagnuolo says. “Because look, I love the guy, and I am loyal to him, and I believe in him, and I was hoping we could do better than we did. But who knows what is in store for him in the future. I am hoping some opportunities come his way.”

Spagnuolo is hoping the same for himself. This season has been redeeming. His defense is back among the NFL’s best. And he hopes the NFL life cycle gives him another shot at being a head coach. “Absolutely. I am hoping that happens,” he says. “We’ll see.”

[Chris Meck]

It is what it is, and the haters (lot of the same guys that could NOT BELIEVE WE DIDN"T GET GENO SMITH) don't want to hear anything about situations or circumstances.

I'd much rather talk about what we do next, draft, FA, retaining or letting our guys go. I mean no matter how much people cry about it, it is what it is. So what next?

[crazycoffey]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

PS 6 out of 9 years he was ranked 26-32nd when it comes to points

Originally Posted by tyton75

I think I can honestly say that I don't really care about the defensive ranking overall.. all I care about is getting more crucial 3rd down stops.

We’re going to rank low in yds and points against again. Nature of a score fast offense and TOP the D is on the field. I don’t know if anything would really change that, except better running the Onfor TOP and a running game. Which isn’t Andy’s strong point.

I’m just cautiously optimistic the bend don’t break mentality is gone, and the D will take a few more chances. We had the Pats at 3rd and long 2 or 3 times on that OT drive alone, and not once did the D get tight, and even try something other than Hope Brady made a mistake.

Guess we’ll see how it goes.

[InChiefsHeaven]

Originally Posted by crazycoffey

We’re going to rank low in yds and points against again. Nature of a score fast offense and TOP the D is on the field. I don’t know if anything would really change that, except better running the Onfor TOP and a running game. Which isn’t Andy’s strong point.

I’m just cautiously optimistic the bend don’t break mentality is gone, and the D will take a few more chances. We had the Pats at 3rd and long 2 or 3 times on that OT drive alone, and not once did the D get tight, and even try something other than Hope Brady made a mistake.

Guess we’ll see how it goes.

Which, ironically he did...and Dee Ford made a bigger one it turns out...

[KChiefs1]

When does he play them?

[Hammock Parties]

Dude has definitely been a huge upgrade.

12th ranked defense by DVOA, we are light years ahead of where we were.

[KChiefs1]

Assessing the Chiefs Analytics
By
Seth Keysor

It was supposed to be so simple for the Kansas City Chiefs as they prepared for the 2019 season: Get a defense that isn’t terrible, and the Super Bowl awaits.

That’s perhaps a bit of hyperbole, but it’s at least close to the truth. Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid, the 2018 Chiefs scored more than 35 points per game and fielded one of the most productive offenses in history. No team held them below 26 points or truly stopped them over the entire season.

The Chiefs came agonizingly close to a Super Bowl berth — literally a few feet, as edge rusher Dee Ford infamously lined up offsides on what would have been a game-winning play in the AFC Championship — on the back of their historic offense, but down the stretch the defense proved to be a fatal flaw. Former defensive coordinator Bob Sutton’s crew couldn’t make stops, and the offense was consistently forced to score repeatedly for the Chiefs to win games.

The Chiefs’ D finished 26th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA last season (a defensive efficiency stat that takes context of every play and strength of opponent into account, explained in more detail here). Being so weak on that side of the ball was the primary reason for each of the Chiefs’ losses, as even when the team would score in bunches or held a lead late in the fourth quarter, it wasn’t enough.

The Chiefs lost center Mitch Morse and receiver Chris Conley to free agency in the offseason, but otherwise kept their offense intact. With another year to gel and Mahomes still developing, the assumption was that the offense would be able to stay nearly as dominant and perhaps somehow even take a step forward. Which meant that all the Chiefs needed was an average defense to be a clear Super Bowl favorite.

With 12 weeks complete in the 2019 season, something interesting has happened and gone largely unnoticed: One side of the ball has accomplished its goal — and it’s not the offense. By any reasonable measure, the defense has significantly outperformed its 2018 performance.

Yards and points per play/drive are obvious terms, but there are two other in-depth stats used here that are very important.

DVOA: As discussed above, this is a measure of efficiency that looks at every play and takes into account down, distance, field position, score and quality of opponent.

EPA Per Play: Expected points added per play, which is a reflection of how much more likely a team is to give up a score (if the number is negative) or score (if the number is positive) after a play. Obviously, the higher the number the better, but most defenses are somewhere in the negative.

All of these stats can be combined to help us get a much closer look at the defense than points per game or total yards allowed. While statistics can be misleading for individual players, for team performance in-depth stats such as the ones above do not lie: The defense has jumped from cellar-dweller to “average” in 2019.

One of the most important jumps has been in the pass defense, which has improved to the point of being very good at 6th in the league. Because pass defense has such a large effect on EPA, the Chiefs’ EPA per play allowed has made a sizable jump. It also has had a significant effect on their points allowed on a per-drive basis.

The Chiefs’ run defense hasn’t taken a large step forward, but it has at least managed to stop being historically bad the way it was last year. While such a marginal change seems insignificant, it’s enough to help swing EPA and yards/points per drive.

The Chiefs conducted a massive overhaul on their scheme this offseason, and the results have been generally positive. New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been more creative and aggressive with the pass rush.

In addition to a pass rush that has been perhaps more consistent than last season (despite losing exceptional players along the edge), the Chiefs have seen a large jump forward in their secondary. Free agent Tyrann Mathieu and draftee Juan Thornhill have been a massive upgrade at the safety position, and the much-maligned cornerback group has generally played well enough to force quarterbacks and receivers to make good plays if they want to move the ball through the air. This is in significant contrast with last year, when blown coverages were routine.

Had a stranger approached me this preseason and asked, “Seth, if at the bye week the Chiefs will have the 14th-ranked defense by DVOA and 6th against the pass, what do you think their record will be?” I would have had a very simple answer (outside of, “Um, who are you?”): They’d be at least 9-2 with an outside shot at being undefeated. The hope was to have a respectable defense, and the Chiefs now seem to have that.

So why are the Chiefs 7-4 and in the midst of what many would call a disappointing season? The answer lies on the other side of the ball. Looking at the same statistics for the offense as we did for the defense, a troubling pattern emerges.

The Chiefs’ offense has been very good in 2019, but it has been significantly less dangerous than it was in 2018. EPA per play and points per drive are particularly noticeable. The Chiefs rushing DVOA has taken a considerable drop, which may be a point in favor of those who believe in the run game’s value. The offense averaged .092 expected points added per rush in 2018. In 2019, the rush game has actually had a negative value at minus-.023 expected points per play. That’s worth re-reading: The run offense has hurt the Chiefs’ chances at scoring this year rather than helping. Assuming 25 carries per game, that’s a swing of 2.875 points per game.

Despite the problems with the run game, the Chiefs’ fall from historically good as a passing team to merely “very good” carries the most impact. The Chiefs averaged .457 expected points added per play passing the ball in 2018. In 2019, that number has fallen to .325 expected points per play. Assuming 40 passing attempts, that amounts to 5.94 points per game.

So what has changed? Why are the Chiefs not what they were last season, or even all that close? There are a few factors at play, and the most frustrating of them has been injuries. The most important players on Kansas City’s offense are Mahomes and receiver Tyreek Hill. Both of them have missed significant chunks of time this season, and Mahomes has played a majority of the season on a bad ankle. Between the two of them, they have missed nine games and have been together on the field for the equivalent of less than two full games.

Mahomes’ injuries have affected the offense more than any other factor. Being hobbled robbed Mahomes of his usual ability to move inside and outside the pocket to avoid rushers.

Mahomes also struggled with consistent accuracy while his ankle bothered him, as he was unable to put weight on the foot when throwing, especially on the run.

However, the impact of Hill’s absence to the offense cannot be overstated. Hill is not just a player who forces defenses to alter their coverage strategy throughout the game with his speed. He’s also exceptional at gaining yards after the catch and is one of the best contested-ball receivers in the NFL.

This touchdown came on 3rd-and-21. Hill’s ability to take bad situations and turn them into wins for the offense has been missed nearly as much as Mahomes’ ability to move around with ease.

The combination of Mahomes’ and Hill’s injuries has been bad enough, but the Chiefs have also dealt with left tackle Eric Fisher being out for an extended period. While he appeared less than 100 percent healthy and struggled at times against the Chargers in his return, Fisher’s absence meant an increased number of plays in which Mahomes (or Matt Moore, when Mahomes was injured) faced pressure almost immediately.

Pressure that happens quickly makes the play almost certain to fail, and it happened at least several more times a game than normal with Fisher on the sideline. While that number may not seem significant, when the number of dropbacks in a game is limited to 40 to 50 times, it makes a considerable impact when an extra 2 or 3 are doomed.

The Chiefs’ offensive line has also taken a marked step backward along the interior this season with Morse now in Buffalo. Replacement Austin Reiter hasn’t played as well as he did last season, and neither has left guard Andrew Wylie. Their steps back, combined with Fisher’s absence, as made the pass protection more unstable. This has resulted in Mahomes looking more jittery in the pocket as he appears to not trust the protection.

A final issue in the Chiefs’ large step backward is their inability to run the ball. While run offense is much less efficient than pass offense and carries significantly less importance, it does have situational value in salting away leads or converting short-yardage situations. Additionally, the ability to create yardage in a bad situation is one of the most valuable in the league. Last season, the Chiefs had one of the better players in the league at doing so in running back Kareem Hunt.

Had Hunt been replaced with a healthy Damien Williams (as he was last season) or a healthy LeSean McCoy, the drop-off may not be as noticeable. However, the Chiefs’ running backs have struggled with injuries, and that has affected the offensive output overall.

It’s worth noting that the Chiefs’ offense has a turnover rate of .080 per drive, as opposed to .110 per drive last season. So the decreased production on offense has been despite being luckier in one aspect of the game that is often random. Conversely, the defense has benefited from turnovers less in 2019 (.136 per drive to .155 per drive last season). So the defense has been less lucky than the offense in 2019, but has still improved significantly.

Perhaps the greatest culprit in the Chiefs’ decrease in offensive efficiency this season has been red-zone offense. In 2018, the Chiefs averaged 5.69 points per trip to the red zone, first in the NFL. That number has tumbled to 4.71 points per red-zone visit, 17th in the league. The Chiefs have not executed at a high level in the red zone due to the issues discussed above, and Reid has made the problem worse at times with play-calling that is overly reliant on single options.

So what does all this data mean? The broadest point to be taken from this is that the Chiefs defense has in fact been what was hoped for heading into this season, and is good enough for the Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. The problem is that the offense has underachieved compared to expectations for a variety of reasons. That’s not to say the offense isn’t still superior to the defense, but it hasn’t been the force it was anticipated to be.

The good news for the Chiefs is that the injury issues that have plagued the offense could be resolved moving forward, and their own failures in the red zone are quite fixable. And if/when the offense regains something resembling its 2018 form, the defense it was waiting for last season has already arrived.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Dude has definitely been a huge upgrade.

12th ranked defense by DVOA, we are light years ahead of where we were.

Elephant in the room: The offense has taken a step back.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Elephant in the room: The offense has taken a step back.

No doubt.

A huge part of that is 10 and 15 being injured for a good chunk of the season, but beyond that, I feel like the situational playcalling has gotten worse, if that's ****ing possible.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

No doubt.



A huge part of that is 10 and 15 being injured for a good chunk of the season, but beyond that, I feel like the situational playcalling has gotten worse, if that's ****ing possible.

Andy’s one option play calls must stop

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I always apply this test: How would you feel if the Raiders or Broncos hired Steve Spanuolo as their DC?

****, can we trade coaches after the deadline?

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Andy’s one option play calls must stop

Especially when the one option is to Blake ****ing Bell.

[jerryaldini]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Assessing the Chiefs Analytics
By
Seth Keysor

This should be required reading for a certain class of Chiefs fans. You know the ones that believe the only reasons they aren't undefeated are a porous defense and time of possession. And Andy not caring about defense and Spags being a moron. The ones that overreact on gameday any time the opponent executes a drive longer than forty yards.

You really should post this as a separate thread and assign it to them. Thanks for posting it.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by rabblerouser

Especially when the one option is to Blake ****ing Bell.

give it a rest

we've moved on, enjoy tomorrow's beatdown

[Rasputin]

We don't have the equivalent of HOFer Michael Strahan on our defense to make a Steve Spagnuolo defense Super Bowl esk.


Our hope is in Mahomes and an offense that overcomes our special needs defense.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by rabblerouser

Especially when the one option is to Blake ****ing Bell.

No shit!