Who is going to win Carwin or Lesnar

[TheGuardian]

Originally Posted by RedNeckRaider

We are good, most seem to think Lesnar has the power advantage as far as bulldoging. As far as the weight it means a lot and it means nothing. It depends on many varables. There are guys who have to cut weight to make fights because they are dropping down to a lower class or they put on large ammounts of weight between fights. Raberto Duran is a case in point. He often would swell to 185 lbs or more and have to cut weight...a lot! to fight. H

Yeah I see the weight thing as a neutral factor. Both guys are similar size. Both guys are powerful guys. So I think it comes back to this.......

1. Brock wins IF he's THAT much better than Carwin on the ground. Meaning, Brock can truly hold Carwin down and go GnP on him. Some say he had no problem holding Herring and Mir down. But Neither of those guys have the wrestling background that Carwin does. Couture had no problem getting up from underneath Brock. Now, Couture is like a man amongst boys in terms of wrestling, but I don't think Carwin is a slouch obviously. So again, can Brock hold him down? Hard to say.

2. Carwin wins if he keeps it standing. Brock has no knockouts to his credit and his standup is about as amateur as one can get at that level. Lesnar's camp may be trying to work in a strategy where Brock does in fact stand up for a while. Long enough to get Carwin to believe he's going to stand, so that he can work the shoot. This is what I believe you will see happen. Brock will stand long enough to make Carwin believe that he's willing to do that, then he will work the shoot. If Carwin can work his sprawl and keep it on the feet, the match won't go on very long because Carwin will knock him out if it turns into a stand up match.

I think that covers about everything.