Mock (9/19)

[Direckshun]

Assumptions:

1. The Chiefs finish 12-4, win the AFC West, and secure the 1st overall seed. They host the Raiders and manage to fend them off for a trip to the AFCCG, where they defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lose the Super Bowl to the Seahawks. HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach stay on, and QB Alex Smith is retained.

2. OLB Tamba Hali retires.

3. The Chiefs extend QB Alex Smith 3 years, $55m ($20m guaranteed), DE Allen Bailey 4 years, $30m ($15m guaranteed), ILB Derrick Johnson 3 years, $15m ($7m guaranteed), and CB Terrance Mitchell 3 years, $18m ($7m guaranteed). These extensions allow the Chiefs to back-end much of the cap hits, and frees up roughly $20m in cap space.

4. The Chiefs sign K Cairo Santos for 4 years, $11m ($4m guaranteed).

5. The Chiefs tender NT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, ILB Ramik Wilson.

6. The Chiefs sign QB Tyler Bray, RB Akeem Hunt, FB Anthony Sherman, OL Jordan Devey, NT Roy Miller, DE Jarvis Jenkins, ILB Kevin Pierre-Louis to minimal deals.

7. The Chiefs let walk WR Albert Wilson, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OL Zach Fulton, NT Benny Logan, ILB Terrance Smith, CB Phillip Gaines, CB Kenneth Acker, P Dustin Colquitt.

8. The Chiefs sign DE Kyle Williams (Bills) for 2 years, $10m ($2m guaranteed).

9. The Chiefs are picking 31st, and have one compensatory pick (a 6th) for QB Nick Foles. They have three conditionals: a 6th for OT Isaiah Battle, a 7th for DE David King, and a 7th for CB Marcus Cooper.

The draft:

2. WR Deon Cain, Clemson
The Chiefs trade their 2nd, one of their 6ths, and a 2019 5th to move up to the middle of the 2nd round.

Yeah, we all know Veach is going to deal as many of those late rounders as possible. The team doesn't have that many roster spots open, and one of the things they are going to need is more talent downfield for Smith/Mahomes in the coming years. Cain is a perfect match for both QBs: he has a very fast first step that will endear him to Smith's brand of getting open quickly, and a ridiculous catching radius that will endear him to the creative playmaking of Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs let Albert Wilson walk this offseason, and Cain can compete with Chesson and Robinson for the 3rd WR reps.

3. CB Brandon Facyson, Virginia Tech

What did Veach/Dorsey do? They reached out for players with elite measurables over and over again and depend on Reid's outstanding coaching staff to develop them. You can't do much better than a 6'1" CB with outstanding speed. Facyson has some problems with his game, but the Chiefs desperately need a 4th CB who can start on the outside in a pinch. Phillip Gaines was their last attempt at a 3rd rounder to fill this role; Facyson is the next.

4. CB Duke Dawson, Florida

The Chiefs also desperately need more talent at nickel, as Steven Nelson has proven adept but insurance is always necessary. Dawson is an eye opening player at times, with some huge hits and tons of flexibility all over the backfield. I really enjoy watching this kid.

More importantly, with the addition of Facyson and Dawson, the Chiefs have potentially the deepest secondary in the NFL: Peters, Mitchell, Nelson, Facyson, and Dawson are all under contract for 2018 and 2019 at LEAST.

5. DE Darian Roseboro, North Carolina State
The Chiefs trade one of their 6ths and both of their 7ths to move into the 5th round.

Roseboro fits the Nunez-Roches profile: incredible athlete with great motor, as NC State prospects usually are. What's needed here in some elite level coaching, which Britt Reid provides.

6 (Nick Foles). P Johnny Townsend, Florida

With Colquitt on the outs, it's time for the Chiefs to make a move here with with one 6th they didn't package into a trade.

roster:

QB: Smith, Mahomes, Bray
RB: Hunt, Ware, West, Hunt
FB: Sherman

WR: Hill, Conley, Cain, Robinson, Chesson
TE: Kelce, Harris, Travis

LT: Fisher, Erving
LG: Ehinger, Witzmann
C: Morse, Devey
RG: Duvarney-Tardif, Witzmann
RT: Schwartz, Erving

DE: Jones, Jenkins, Roseboro
NT: Nunez-Roches, Miller
DE: Bailey, Williams

OLB: Ford, Kpassagnon
ILB: Ragland, Wilson
ILB: Johnson, Eligwe, Pierre-Louis
OLB: Houston, Zombo

CB: Peters, Mitchell, Nelson, Facyson, Dawson
S: Berry, Parker, Sorensen, Murray, McQuay

K: Santos
P: Townsend
LS: Winchester

[mnchiefsguy]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

If Alex Smith takes us to the Super Bowl, he's a Chief in 2018. It's probably that simple.

If that's the case, we've got no cap space. Cutting Hali doesn't save us enough to keep the players we want to keep, and I don't want to cut DJ.

So you can extend Bailey (which lowers his cap hit in 2018), extend DJ some so his cap hit in 2018 goes down, Terrance Mitchell won't cost that much in 2018...

But Alex Smith is still going to price us out. So if you extend him this offseason, his cap hit drops dramatically in 2018, and you can sign him for a deal that STILL makes him trade worthy in 2019.

So, yes, I'm doing a little mad scientist shit here. I'm extending my Super Bowl QB so I can trade him in 2019. Outside the box thinking that probably would never fly, but that's never stopped me before.

Only way Smith stays is if he wins the Super Bowl....getting there and having a shitty Alex performance and losing will not be enough to justify keeping him.

[The Franchise]

If we win the Super Bowl with Alex Smith....then you ****ing fleece another team by trading him. You don't ****ing extend him and lose out on the positives that come with drafting a 1st round rookie QB. EVEN if you want to keep him.....then you keep him on his current contract and make him battle Mahomes in TC for the starting job. FFS.....extending Alex Smith would be monumentally stupid.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

If we win the Super Bowl with Alex Smith....then you ****ing fleece another team by trading him. You don't ****ing extend him and lose out on the positives that come with drafting a 1st round rookie QB. EVEN if you want to keep him.....then you keep him on his current contract and make him battle Mahomes in TC for the starting job. FFS.....extending Alex Smith would be monumentally stupid.

If you win the Super Bowl with Alex Smith, then you keep Alex Smith.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

If you win the Super Bowl with Alex Smith, then you keep Alex Smith.

If you have nothing behind him....then yes. We have Mahomes. You thank Smith for everything he's done and then help him decide where he wants to live next. You don't ****ing extend him for 5 more years and let your young QB rot on the bench.

[Direckshun]

We will still have Mahomes.

What we're going to do is win a second Super Bowl in a row (ostensibly). You don't do that by trading off the guy that just won you one.

[BryanBusby]

If they had any plan but to dump Alex at the end of the season than they had no business trading all that draft capital for a QB and a lot of that Super Bowl era roster is blown up to keep him.

It doesn't make any sense.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

We will still have Mahomes.

What we're going to do is win a second Super Bowl in a row (ostensibly). You don't do that by trading off the guy that just won you one.

The only point in drafting a QB that early in the draft is to be as a starter while his cap hit is almost consequential compared to a starter.

If Smith starts beyond 2018 then Dorsey and Reid royally ****ed up their draft capital for maybe two years of cheap QB salary.

That's an awful, awful, awful trade; this isn't 2005 and Alex Smith isn't Brett Favre.

[RealSNR]

Let's say the Chiefs win a Super Bowl with Alex.

In 2018, would you rather have:

A. More Alex

B. An extension for Peters and Morse and perhaps a shiny new free agent somewhere. Oh, and Mahomes is your starting QB.

[BossChief]

Sorry buddy, but no way.

Where did you come up with any of that?

I mean, almost everything is way off imo. (Which isn't worth a whole lot)

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

Let's say the Chiefs win a playoff game with Alex.

In 2018, would you rather have:

A. More Alex

B. An extension for Peters and Morse and perhaps a shiny new free agent somewhere. Oh, and Mahomes is your starting QB.

FYP.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

If they had any plan but to dump Alex at the end of the season than they had no business trading all that draft capital for a QB and a lot of that Super Bowl era roster is blown up to keep him.

It doesn't make any sense.

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

The only point in drafting a QB that early in the draft is to be as a starter while his cap hit is almost consequential compared to a starter.

If Smith starts beyond 2018 then Dorsey and Reid royally ****ed up their draft capital for maybe two years of cheap QB salary.

That's an awful, awful, awful trade; this isn't 2005 and Alex Smith isn't Brett Favre.

I'm not for making personnel decisions that justify draft picks.

I'm making personnel decisions that give the team its best chance to win a Super Bowl.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

Let's say the Chiefs win a Super Bowl with Alex.

In 2018, would you rather have:

A. More Alex

B. An extension for Peters and Morse and perhaps a shiny new free agent somewhere. Oh, and Mahomes is your starting QB.

We don't have to extend any of those players this offseason.

But the time will come when we do have to keep those players (and hopefully Bennie Logan) and Alex will have to go.

If we go to the Super Bowl, which again, is what I'm projecting in the OP, you bring back the QB that took you there.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Sorry buddy, but no way.

Where did you come up with any of that?

I mean, almost everything is way off imo. (Which isn't worth a whole lot)

I'm tinkering and experimenting. It's what I do.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

We don't have to extend any of those players this offseason.

But the time will come when we do have to keep those players (and hopefully Bennie Logan) and Alex will have to go.

If we go to the Super Bowl, which again, is what I'm projecting in the OP, you bring back the QB that took you there.

And you can't really let them all hit free agency the same year.

There's no scenario where you keep smith after this season that works out

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

If you win the Super Bowl with Alex Smith, then you keep Alex Smith.

Just like the Ravens HAD to pay Flacco huge money....

I'm with Pestilence on this one. It would be awesome if Alex won a Super Bowl on his way out, and I can imagine a number of teams willing to pay a steap price for his services in trade compensation and contract (which he would deserve).

The problem with the "Keep Alex" movement is that we are not hypothesizing about drafting a Qb of the future in KC, he's here and looks good. And the upside to drafting a QB is their rookie contract where you can get great play at the position and a ridiculous price, which allows you to keep other pieces in place, you know guys like Peters, Hill, Kelce, maybe Dee Ford, and eventually Chris Jones.

The decision that will be made is a financial one, not an emotional one.

Lets be honest here, Alex is a good QB, but this is not a choice like San Diago had between Rivers and Brees.