Who would you rather have drafting for the Chiefs?

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by B_Ambuehl

Someone with only a few minutes to perform an evaluation has a much more intuitive view of things.

And Dick Haley knew RIGHT AWAY Cassel was a piece of shit.

Originally Posted by HotCarl

For the most part, you have a completely cohesive group here which all has the same thought. Of course, the longer discussion goes on, the more the pre-existing belief is reinforced.

Yes, but that pre-existing belief is based on our gut reaction to what we saw from Geno initially. Almost everything since then has reinforced it. He doesn't have many warts.

Originally Posted by HotCarl

He is only seen as worthy of the #1 overall simply because the old strategy failed,

This is also wrong. In fact some of us don't give a shit about what the Chiefs did previously. Mostly what people care about is that all the players we might draft instead of Geno are utter garbage value for a #1 pick.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by GoWalrus

This is just his really eloquent and snarky way to say, AGAIN, that we're all participating in group-think like lemmings.

The whole idea is hilariously stupid.

[O.city]

Joe Flacco was a second round graded QB he didn't slip, he was drafted above where he was slotted. . There are two Qb's this year who have first round grades. Yes, it's not early first at this point, but it's a first.


Most first round Qb's don't turn out? Do most LT's? Or Dt's?

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

Joe Flacco was a second round graded QB he didn't slip, he was drafted above where he was slotted. . There are two Qb's this year who have first round grades. Yes, it's not early first at this point, but it's a first.


Most first round Qb's don't turn out? Do most LT's? Or Dt's?

14 of the last 15 first round QBs are starting.

The lone exception?

Tim Tebow.

[HotCarl]

Originally Posted by O.city

Joe Flacco was a second round graded QB he didn't slip, he was drafted above where he was slotted. . There are two Qb's this year who have first round grades. Yes, it's not early first at this point, but it's a first.


Most first round Qb's don't turn out? Do most LT's? Or Dt's?

Fair enough, for the sake of argument let's say Flacco is a contrary example. You'd also have Brees you could add to this group.

If we peel off those which are significantly special examples like Peyton and Eli to try to normalize things, I don't think we see the correlation we typically hear about. Brady was a low round pick, but we can't really count that as normalized either, because he was essentially a winning lottery ticket.

I agree that it's a bit of an argument from silence. The Brady super bowls cloud the numbers for the last 10 or 15 years, and trying to normalize beyond the super-elite super-minority clouds it further.

Here are all the 1st round QBs since 2000.

Chad Pennington
Michael Vick
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman ^
Eli Manning *
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger *
J.P. Losman
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers *
Jason Campbell
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco *
Matt Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden


Apologies if I missed anything.

There we have 30-some guys, and only 4 have won Super Bowls in the 12 contested since then.

So the success rate of these guys, almost all of whom were generally accepted
first round picks, is about 1 in 10.

Other than a Manning, we have only Roethlisberger, Flacco, and Rodgers among 1st rounders winning Super Bowls. And those guys were all middle-late first, weren't they?

Outside of a few no-brainer choices, the picture isn't very clear. That's all I am pointing out.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by HotCarl

Fair enough, for the sake of argument let's say Flacco is a contrary example. You'd also have Brees you could add to this group.

If we peel off those which are significantly special examples like Peyton and Eli to try to normalize things, I don't think we see the correlation we typically hear about. Brady was a low round pick, but we can't really count that as normalized either, because he was essentially a winning lottery ticket.

I agree that it's a bit of an argument from silence. The Brady super bowls cloud the numbers for the last 10 or 15 years, and trying to normalize beyond the super-elite super-minority clouds it further.

Here are all the 1st round QBs since 2000.

Chad Pennington
Michael Vick
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman ^
Eli Manning *
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger *
J.P. Losman
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers *
Jason Campbell
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco *
Matt Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden


Apologies if I missed anything.

There we have 30-some guys, and only 4 have won Super Bowls in the 12 contested since then.

So the success rate of these guys, almost all of whom were generally accepted
first round picks, is about 1 in 10.

Other than a Manning, we have only Roethlisberger, Flacco, and Rodgers among 1st rounders winning Super Bowls. And those guys were all middle-late first, weren't they?

Outside of a few no-brainer choices, the picture isn't very clear. That's all I am pointing out.

Ironic because the top Qb's this year are hailed as middle late first round grades.


But yes, there are alot of them and the success rate is 1 and 10. But look at what it is for 2-UDFA. It's astronomically lower.

[HotCarl]

Originally Posted by O.city

Ironic because the top Qb's this year are hailed as middle late first round grades.

There you go, we should trade down until we get into the 20s.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by HotCarl

There you go, we should trade down until we get into the 20s.

You seem to have this idea that a guy has to be drafted where he is slotted or graded.

[Brock]

Originally Posted by HotCarl

So the success rate of these guys, almost all of whom were generally accepted
first round picks, is about 1 in 10.

Other than a Manning, we have only Roethlisberger, Flacco, and Rodgers among 1st rounders winning Super Bowls. And those guys were all middle-late first, weren't they?

Outside of a few no-brainer choices, the picture isn't very clear. That's all I am pointing out.

Basically all you're pointing out here is that there are more than a few QBs who should have been selected earlier than they actually were.

[HotCarl]

Originally Posted by Brock

Basically all you're pointing out here is that there are more than a few QBs who should have been selected earlier than they actually were.

There are three or four of those out of 30+, yes. Certainly.

But the moral is that the majority of them flame out and set the franchise back 3-4 years. It's just a fact. Maybe it's acceptable risk, maybe it isn't, but we underrate the risk.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by O.city

Joe Flacco was a second round graded QB he didn't slip, he was drafted above where he was slotted. . There are two Qb's this year who have first round grades. Yes, it's not early first at this point, but it's a first.


Most first round Qb's don't turn out? Do most LT's? Or Dt's?

And I'll admit it; I NEVER viewed Flacco as a qb that could win a ring. Lesson learned and overall philosophy reinforced: DRAFT THE ****ING QB.
Posted via Mobile Device

[O.city]

We can't complain, we aren't a GM, we don't know shit. Can't complain about officials, they're paid, too smart.

[Hammock Parties]

I didn't even pay attention to Geno Smith until that game against Baylor.

I saw that and was like "Whoa, holy shit, a gold-toof dawg be descendin' from da heavens."

Then I found this awesome thread on CP about all his jive-throwin' ways and was like "roll anutha blunt."

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by GoWalrus

I didn't even pay attention to Geno Smith until that game against Baylor.

I saw that and was like "Whoa, holy shit, a gold-toof dawg be descendin' from da heavens."

Then I found this awesome thread on CP about all his jive-throwin' ways and was like "roll anutha blunt."

[htismaqe]

The first game I saw was the Pinstripe Bowl. I though he looked kinda like Vince Young out there. We need Vince Young.