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Old 12-06-2016, 09:14 AM  
carlos3652 carlos3652 is offline
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Please define "sustainable"
I guess I don't know what sustainable means anymore because I read it and hear it all the time that what we do is not sustainable?

If we win 20 out of 24 games, how is the formula of mitigating mistakes, forcing turnovers and being super efficient in red zone defense not sustainable?

We are 3-0 against the Raiders and 3-0 vs the Chargers in that stretch. We are 2-0 vs the broncos with this formula...

our losses @ Patriots, @ Texans when they had JJ watt, @ Pitt, and at home vs the Bucs. All division leaders (or tied) and playoff teams. We are built to win the division and make a playoff push with this formula...

It works.
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Old 12-07-2016, 02:42 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry View Post
When your defense and special teams keep scoring half your points for you, that's not sustainable. Those are gravy points.
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Old 12-07-2016, 06:00 AM   #62
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Old 12-07-2016, 06:00 AM   #63
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Defensive interceptions have a strong luck component as do fumble recoveries. Here is one study that shows defensive turnovers from the first half of the season tend to be uncorrelated with defensive turnovers from the second half of the season. There have been dozens of similar analyses done over the years.

http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-sta...the-nfl-season
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Old 12-07-2016, 06:07 AM   #64
Pasta Little Brioni Pasta Little Brioni is offline
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Explain the Chiefs not turning the ball over and having an elite turnover differential in a FOUR year span. That's not luck.

A 16 game season is a small sample size, so of course it leads to wild deviations. Turnover differential simply wins ball games.
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Old 12-07-2016, 06:15 AM   #65
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One thing to consider is that when D or ST scores, the O is not given the opportunity to make that score themselves, resulting in decreased stats for the O. There is no way of knowing the difference, if any, it had on the wins/loss of games. Of course I think its huge when it happens but I don't dis the O because of it.
This doesn't get enough mention, well done.

This source is worth a look ---> http://www.footballdb.com/stats/drives.html?sort=drives

The Chiefs are top 10 in score % of drives... though have the 11th lowest in number of drives.

Why FGs and not TDs?

That is the question to be asking.. and I think it goes straight to one person.. Andy Reid.

For whatever the conservative reason, Reid does not want to risk much once in the RZ, and is more willing than most HCs to settle for 3 points. I guess when the team is #1 in the turnover differential, this HC likes his chances of playing in that conservative nature.
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Old 12-07-2016, 06:19 AM   #66
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It's Alex Sandy. Dudes balls don't drop till the team HAS to score.
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Old 12-07-2016, 06:28 AM   #67
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It's Alex Sandy. Dudes balls don't drop till the team HAS to score.
Well, that's certainly another theory. I think Alex is just an extension of Andy. All too willing to follow along with this conservative approach by Andy. This would explain why nothing ever really changes.. and why Andy isn't forcing the issue or benching Smith for not forcing the issue.
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Old 12-07-2016, 08:36 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball View Post
Explain the Chiefs not turning the ball over and having an elite turnover differential in a FOUR year span. That's not luck.

A 16 game season is a small sample size, so of course it leads to wild deviations. Turnover differential simply wins ball games.

Not turning the ball over isn't random. We have a QB who plays safe and that leads to a low giveaway rate.

"Forcing" turnovers is another story.
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Old 12-07-2016, 08:54 AM   #69
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Yes. If you need the other team to make mistakes to win, then you aren't likely to get that from the Patriots, it's true.

But if you're the type that also does not make many mistakes at all, then you automatically give yourself a fighter's chance against the Pats.
First, I think that the fact that this Chiefs team has been winning this way since Reid was hired shows that it is sustainable

But so is ball security, and no team has been better at that since Bellichik was hired in New England.

You are not going to beat the Patriots by forcing mistakes because they are too well coached.

You beat the Patriots by making stops on defense and scoring points on offense.
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Old 12-07-2016, 10:51 AM   #70
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I would look at the last 2 seasons games. All of them. Then break them between playoff teams and non playoff teams. Look at record against. Then take the average of both for turnovers, pts off turnovers, and points the offense created on their own.

That is where if our method is sustainable or not. Denver did drive through the playoffs with it though. They out reid andy reid.
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Old 12-07-2016, 10:56 AM   #71
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You are not going to beat the Patriots by forcing mistakes because they are too well coached.
This I disagree with.

The few times the Pats formula was beaten was when turnovers were forced.

Steelers, Denver, and Baltimore all were equal in turnovers or forced more WHILE getting pressure on the QB.

QB pressure is IMPERATIVE...
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Old 12-07-2016, 12:49 PM   #72
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Not turning the ball over isn't random. We have a QB who plays safe and that leads to a low giveaway rate.

"Forcing" turnovers is another story.
How is it a different story? When you're a top 3 team in takeaways 3 out of 4 years, doesn't that indicate a trend? You think it's just a coincidence?
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Old 12-07-2016, 01:13 PM   #73
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How is it a different story? When you're a top 3 team in takeaways 3 out of 4 years, doesn't that indicate a trend? You think it's just a coincidence?
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It sort of is, I think.

Think about that one year you mention. Why didn't we create so many turnovers in that particular season? You could say injury but did Devito, DJ and Berry account for that many turnovers in previous and subsequent seasons?

Teams seem to get hot and cold when it comes to forcing turnovers. The only team I can remember who really defied the odds and kept it up for more than a few seasons was Lovie's Bears in the mid-to-late 2000s.
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Old 12-07-2016, 01:27 PM   #74
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It sort of is, I think.

Think about that one year you mention. Why didn't we create so many turnovers in that particular season? You could say injury but did Devito, DJ and Berry account for that many turnovers in previous and subsequent seasons?

Teams seem to get hot and cold when it comes to forcing turnovers. The only team I can remember who really defied the odds and kept it up for more than a few seasons was Lovie's Bears in the mid-to-late 2000s.
Marty's Chiefs were really good at it too. They led the league in turnover differential just about every year.
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Old 12-07-2016, 01:35 PM   #75
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Somebody needs to keep stats that differentiate between random turnovers and forced turnovers.

A muffed punt or bad QB Center exchange isn't the same as a pressure on the QB causing a shitty pass that gets picked or a defensive player ripping a ball out or a sack strip fumble.

Is Alex Smith less likely to turn the ball over than any other QB in football? Yes.

Are some turnovers random? Yea.

Are all of them? No freaking way.


Its not as cut and dry as saying turnovers are all chance etc...
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