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Old 09-24-2013, 01:53 AM  
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Who has(d) better odds of making the playoffs?

The Chiefs heading in to week 17 of 2006 or the Royals on 9/24/13? Note: for the purposes of this thread a tie-breaker game for the WC is considered making the playoffs.
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Old 09-24-2013, 10:25 AM   #16
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is offline
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Who has better odds of making the playoffs--
2013 Royals or 2013 Chiefs?

Royals probably need to go 6-0 or 5-1, and have other teams lose several games.
Chiefs probably need to go 7-6.

I'd say Chiefs
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Old 09-24-2013, 10:57 AM   #17
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the Royals have not been above a 10% probability since May 22

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/pro...p?ymd=20130924

Right now they have a 3% chance.

Chiefs in 2006 had to win and have three other teams lose. One of those teams was 9-6 going in (Broncos), the other two were 8-7 (Bengals/Titans). Bengals were playing a division rival in the Steelers. Titans were a big underdog against the Patriots. Broncos had a letdown game with a rookie QB and were under pressure of blowing a 7-2 start.
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Old 09-24-2013, 11:08 AM   #18
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All of that luck, just to go to Indy and RRPP the entire game.

That was some of the worst and unimaginative playcalling I had ever seen.
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Old 09-24-2013, 11:09 AM   #19
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Who has better odds of making the playoffs--
2013 Royals or 2013 Chiefs?

Royals probably need to go 6-0 or 5-1, and have other teams lose several games.
Chiefs probably need to go 7-6.

I'd say Chiefs
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Old 09-24-2013, 11:21 AM   #20
alnorth alnorth is offline
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Reposting this here, since yesterday, I've started to model the rest of this season every time the standings change.

OK, here's what I've got for today. I wound up at about 5.9%.

Maybe ESPN's odds are playing out the tiebreaker game, in which case I'm closer to what they have than baseball prospectus.

If we win out, then as of right now we're 50/50. If we lose one game, we're at about 14% (but that obviously will go up or down a lot based on what our opponents do).

Right now, 2 losses puts us somewhere above 1%, but its hard to tell if that was a fluke or not, because I only have 4 events to support that.

It is mathematically possible for us to make it with 3 losses, but after thousands of simulations now, I have not yet hit that event.



edit: Adding on to the above: A simple way to estimate getting past the 163rd game (maybe even a 164th game) and at least reaching the wild card game can be done by giving half credit for 2-way 2nd wild card ties, one-third credit for 3-way 2nd wild card ties, and 2/3 credit for 3-way 1st wild card ties. (all others get full credit)

If you do that, we're at about 3.1% to reach at least the wild card round, which is very close to ESPN's odds.
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Old 09-24-2013, 11:21 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
I decided I gave 1/4 of a shit and googled this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

1.5%, so they are about the same.
If it were to happen, I doubt if Ned Yost's wife would have to tell him about it.
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Old 09-24-2013, 11:27 AM   #22
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Molitoth View Post
All of that luck, just to go to Indy and RRPP the entire game.

That was some of the worst and unimaginative playcalling I had ever seen.
They were frauds anyway. Green was a shell of himself after the concussion. Huard was Huard. They rode Larry Johnson to death. Those Chiefs were 15th in scoring offense and 11th in scoring defense. They were just +4 in turnover differential, not outstanding on either side of the ball. Chiefs had a points differential of +16. The offense was run by Mike Solari who was neutered when during a pre-season game Herm threw him under the bus for actually trying to score a TD near the end of the half instead of settling for a FG.

The 2006 Chiefs were probably the worst playoff team in franchise history.
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Old 09-24-2013, 11:43 AM   #23
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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1986 was a pretty bad team
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Old 09-24-2013, 11:49 AM   #24
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Old 09-24-2013, 11:55 AM   #25
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This was actually an interesting question. Some of you have reading comprehension issues. The one thing I'll say apart from the long odds is what happens if the Royals actually get in. The Chiefs? We knew there was little chance of them going far. But I really think the Royals could make some noise in the playoffs if they got in, particularly if Detroit took out Oakland. KC has a winning record against both the Red Sox and Tigers this year. Oakland owns us, though.
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