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Old 10-15-2013, 02:08 PM  
AustinChief AustinChief is online now
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The (unintended) genious of the GOP debt ceiling "plan"

I highly doubt that the GOP planned any of this but I think the current situation has a good chance of working out heavily in their favor IF they accept some minor concessions from the Dems and move on.

Here is why...

If they had simply made this fight about spending and NOT tried to force the Dems to defund or delay Obamacare I honestly think the Dems would have put forth a delay themselves after finding out how far from finished the website truly was. As it stands the GOP's stance has made it impossible for the Dems to enact a delay without giving the GOP a massive "win."

I have stated all along that an Obamacare delay would backfire against the GOP by 1)pushing this massively unpopular issue back past the next election and 2)giving the Dems time to "fix" the system enough to make it more palatable.

The debt ceiling issue and govt shutdown will be long forgotten from the ephemeral public consciousness by the time the next election hits. What little memory remains will be of how the current govt doesn't work and we need to "throw the bums out." That kind of attitude hurts the Dems FAR worse than it does the GOP.

Barring more GOP screwups I honestly think we'll see a 50/50 or 51/49 split after 2014. (Of course 50/50 doesn't help the GOP much)
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Old 10-15-2013, 06:03 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cleudus View Post
I can't post links

finance.townhall.com/columnists/politicalcalculations/2013/01/21/who-really-owns-the-us-national-debt-n1493555/page/full

But you can see US entities own 68% of the debt. And this is for fiscal year 2012. Social Security owns the second major chunk totaling around 2.6 Trillion.

Another question would you buy corporate bonds if they defaulted recently on their previous bonds? In other words: don't pay back. Would you like to own T-bills? They pay no interest compared to other loans and bonds because they are supposed to be safe, I mean the chances of a government defaulting are slim to none, right? So after they default people gonna buy them up like hotcakes is what you are saying .
So not just ignorant but actually stupid? You are so out of your depth on this conversation it is frightening.

It doesn't MATTER who owns the bonds dum dum. We are not saying only pay FOREIGN bondholders. We are saying that as long as you pay all bondholders you don't DEFAULT. We are also not saying an actual default is a good thing. We are saying that if it happens it is because OBAMA chose to default. We have MORE THAN ENOUGH MONEY to pay bond interest. How ****ing hard is that to get?

(This ignores the technical difficulties involved with selective payments)
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Old 10-15-2013, 06:08 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
This is still true. We are technologically incapable of prioritization because our systems are so huge and archaic, running on old languages that few programmers know.

The endeavor that would be needed to make prioritization possible would take a lot of time and money, and no president or congress is ever going to spend the money to make that happen because a default is a stupid option that should not be seriously explored, anyway.
This isn't true. It's true for a LONG TERM solution but not (necessarily) for a short one. No one wants to look at what it would take because they don't want to even put it on the table... but you can NOT state unequivocally that you know this to be true. (Nor can I say it isn't)

I am not advocating a default.. I just want clarity on the fact that this scare tactic bullshit comes from choices made by the Dems.

Anyway, wrong thread for this old convo.. this thread is about how the GOP stance has backed the Dems into a corner where an Obamacare delay is impossible for them. If the system stays nonfunctional this could have SEVERE repercussions for them. So, while it wasn't likely a planned outcome it will work out very well for the GOP unless Obamacare gets some MAJOR fixes in the next 6 months. (not just the website but pricing issues and everything)
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Old 10-15-2013, 06:13 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
So not just ignorant but actually stupid? You are so out of your depth on this conversation it is frightening.

It doesn't MATTER who owns the bonds dum dum. We are not saying only pay FOREIGN bondholders. We are saying that as long as you pay all bondholders you don't DEFAULT. We are also not saying an actual default is a good thing. We are saying that if it happens it is because OBAMA chose to default. We have MORE THAN ENOUGH MONEY to pay bond interest. How ****ing hard is that to get?

(This ignores the technical difficulties involved with selective payments)
Agian from the CBO website first link:

On September 25, 2013, the Treasury estimated that its ability to borrow under those extraordinary measures will be exhausted no later than October 17, leaving a cash balance of approximately $30 billion. CBO currently projects that the Treasury will exhaust all of the borrowing authority created by those measures, as well as its cash balance, between October 22 and the end of the month. (It is possible, however, that the date could fall outside of that range.)

17 trillion in debt, some of it maturing, some of it likely could be to some Social Security recipients, but we will pay only the interest with 30 billion so we won't default. And you expect to cover the maturing bills by issuing more debt: T-bills, but you won't raise the debt ceiling to issue more debt, its why we are defaulting. Forget it dude you are as brain washed as the come, and the best part: its because Obama chooses it. Hahahah. Keep watching your conservative media friend. Swallow that goop.
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Old 10-15-2013, 07:31 PM   #49
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Sorry for the double-post.....

Last edited by TheDebbieDee; 10-15-2013 at 07:34 PM.. Reason: Double-posted
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Old 10-15-2013, 07:33 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
We're not going to default. That's ridiculous.
And the Titanic is NOT going to sink - that's ridiculous!
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Old 10-15-2013, 08:10 PM   #51
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Regarding the OP, whatever marginal benefit there may be in forcing the Dems to "own it" (I do not think there was ever any chance at all that the Dems would have sheepishly proposed an individual mandate delay, but who knows), I think is far more than countered by the fact that the debt ceiling fight wiped out the Obamacare launch failure stories in the news cycle.

There will still be some chatter about that as they try to get things fixed, but the GOP could have made a lot of hay over the failed launch. There were quite a lot of stories around October 1st with Republicans basically going "Oh God, this stupid Cruz stunt ruined our ability to scream about the launch"
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Old 10-15-2013, 08:33 PM   #52
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Old 10-15-2013, 08:40 PM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
If something doesn't happen by the 17th (or whatever later date when we actually default, it is probably somewhat later than the 17th), I think what'll happen, especially since we can not prioritize, is Obama will probably invoke the 14th amendment and ignore the debt ceiling. I previously thought he swore he wouldn't, but when you carefully parse the statements he and anyone else from the white house made on it, they never really took it off the table.
Obama will not invoke the 14th and it's unConstitutional if he did. He'll be sued. It would be a VERY bad precedent that, if copied, would be done by other presidents which is too much power taken by that branch. Might as well have a king then.
I realize you've read some material by lawyers on this but that doesn't make it correct.

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Old 10-15-2013, 08:41 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Regarding the OP, whatever marginal benefit there may be in forcing the Dems to "own it" (I do not think there was ever any chance at all that the Dems would have sheepishly proposed an individual mandate delay, but who knows), I think is far more than countered by the fact that the debt ceiling fight wiped out the Obamacare launch failure stories in the news cycle.

There will still be some chatter about that as they try to get things fixed, but the GOP could have made a lot of hay over the failed launch. There were quite a lot of stories around October 1st with Republicans basically going "Oh God, this stupid Cruz stunt ruined our ability to scream about the launch"
This. The problems are definitely not over for that laughable technology, but it gave Obama and administration a chance to at least troubleshoot the huge issues and fix them under the radar.

And Obama has been a complete klutz in this negotiation process, but the attention isn't on that nor should it be. The attention is on the Republicans, who waited until the 25th hour to put a serious proposal together and who have suffered from an embarrassing in-fighting. It was like Bush when he was unpopular. The Republicans had an enormous opportunity to upstage the President, but failed at it. There's just no way the Republicans fare well in the next election cycle.
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Old 10-15-2013, 08:50 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
FYI - it's genius not genious
your and idiot...






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Old 10-15-2013, 09:06 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
THANK YOU for posting that. Maybe a simple graphic will help some of these dullards see what we have been trying to say this whole time.

The ONLY poster who has put forth a legit point in this regard is FD by stating the fact that the Treasury isn't setup to handle a situation like this. It would require some creative measures to adjust the system to handle this in time. Of course that is entirely on the executive branch.
The checks are automated. If they weren't able to put up a functioning web site with 3 years notice, do you really think they should attempt to cobble together financial software overnight? That would not end well. I don't think cutting entitlements or other automated payments is a viable option.

If I were Obama, I'd just keep spending money and let them try to impeach me. None of the options available (based on the damage they would do to the country) are worth keeping office over. He'd be better to fall on the sword than to pick any of the "options". I don't think the public would support an impeachment over this issue anyway.
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Old 10-15-2013, 09:19 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
The interest debt is represented on the far left of the red bar. The Green bar represents revenues taken in each month. There is no worry about defaulting. It's just a scare tactic that the balanced media has perpetrated to present this debate in a very unbiased and balanced scare tactic way:


Click to enlarge
What a strange chart.

It lumps quite a bit into "welfare and other spending". This would include veteran's benefits, the DOJ, FBI, CIA, general government expenditures (like the White House, Supreme Court, Congress, keeping the lights on), not to mention that only includes the essential spending.

So, yeah, if we literally turn off the lights and send every one home, we can pay the Chinese, no sweat. But lumping those things in with welfare is highly misleading.
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Old 10-15-2013, 09:23 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
This is still true. We are technologically incapable of prioritization because our systems are so huge and archaic, running on old languages that few programmers know..
This is false. We can't prioritize individual check, but we can prioritize check runs. Tell me you don't believe that we run interest payment checks with welfare checks.
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Old 10-15-2013, 09:25 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by banyon View Post
What a strange chart.

It lumps quite a bit into "welfare and other spending". This would include veteran's benefits, the DOJ, FBI, CIA, general government expenditures (like the White House, Supreme Court, Congress, keeping the lights on), not to mention that only includes the essential spending.

So, yeah, if we literally turn off the lights and send every one home, we can pay the Chinese, no sweat. But lumping those things in with welfare is highly misleading.

The only purpose of the chart is to illustrate why we won't default after the 17th. All the rest is political yadda that doesn't really pertain to the actual matter of the default that is being threatened by the white house. There is no default that is going to happen. Even Obama isn't that petty.
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Old 10-15-2013, 09:30 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by Cleudus View Post
How brainwashed are you guys? Americans deserve everything they get when we default, for becoming brainwashed media puppets. You guys deserve all of this. Fanatic tea party extremist are now considered moderate. You guys will create the world you let the media create in your head. And you deserve it all.


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