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Old 10-15-2013, 02:08 PM  
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
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The (unintended) genious of the GOP debt ceiling "plan"

I highly doubt that the GOP planned any of this but I think the current situation has a good chance of working out heavily in their favor IF they accept some minor concessions from the Dems and move on.

Here is why...

If they had simply made this fight about spending and NOT tried to force the Dems to defund or delay Obamacare I honestly think the Dems would have put forth a delay themselves after finding out how far from finished the website truly was. As it stands the GOP's stance has made it impossible for the Dems to enact a delay without giving the GOP a massive "win."

I have stated all along that an Obamacare delay would backfire against the GOP by 1)pushing this massively unpopular issue back past the next election and 2)giving the Dems time to "fix" the system enough to make it more palatable.

The debt ceiling issue and govt shutdown will be long forgotten from the ephemeral public consciousness by the time the next election hits. What little memory remains will be of how the current govt doesn't work and we need to "throw the bums out." That kind of attitude hurts the Dems FAR worse than it does the GOP.

Barring more GOP screwups I honestly think we'll see a 50/50 or 51/49 split after 2014. (Of course 50/50 doesn't help the GOP much)
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:31 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by banyon View Post
What a strange chart.

It lumps quite a bit into "welfare and other spending". This would include veteran's benefits, the DOJ, FBI, CIA, general government expenditures (like the White House, Supreme Court, Congress, keeping the lights on), not to mention that only includes the essential spending.

So, yeah, if we literally turn off the lights and send every one home, we can pay the Chinese, no sweat. But lumping those things in with welfare is highly misleading.
It's from a conservative website. No real independent link behind it. Just more numbers to memorize the easily manipulated tea party.
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Old 10-16-2013, 06:16 AM   #62
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Old 10-16-2013, 09:35 AM   #63
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Even the WSJ piling on now. They don't seem to share the same view that this was genius:

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...37791687537388

Quote:
Updated Oct. 15, 2013 10:14 p.m. ET
The Beltway budget melodrama rolls on to its predictable and dreary end, with both sides now split over increasingly small differences. None of this is worth a partial government shutdown, much less the risk of a debt default, and both sides are looking like losers. Let's get it over with.

As we went to press Tuesday night, Republican leaders in the House had abandoned a plan to pass a debt-increase bill that was nearly identical to the one that Senate leaders agreed to on Monday. The main differences were funding the government only through December 15, rather than January 15 in the Senate bill, and a provision to require Members of Congress and their staff to live by ObamaCare's subsidies.

None of that was enough to please the small band of 20 or so House conservatives who have been all but running the House since this fiasco began. They refused to support House Speaker John Boehner and even Budget Chairman Paul Ryan. Another 30 or so Members were tired of getting kicked around by Heritage Action and Senator Ted Cruz and want the whole thing settled. With Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi keeping her troops in line for a no vote, GOP leaders pulled the bill from the floor.

The conservatives thus undermined whatever small leverage the House GOP had left. Without a united majority of 218 votes, Republicans might as well hand the Speaker's gavel to Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid. Senate leaders announced immediately that they would resume negotiating to finish a deal that they would bring to the floor as early as Wednesday.

We should add that House Republicans also blundered in refusing to accept the Senate proposal to delay a reinsurance tax of about $60 a year per insured person. Democrats originally passed this tax to help float ObamaCare's exchanges. Insurers pay the per capita fee, which they can pass along to consumers in higher premiums, and the fee goes to a fund that then pays back the insurers if they end up with a mix of patients with higher than average claims.

House Republicans objected to the delay in the tax because unions supported the delay for their own insurance plans, but that was short-sighted. Senate Democrats were willing to delay the tax for a year to please labor and in return agree to better income verification for Americans who apply for ObamaCare subsidies. So out of political pique, House Republicans opposed two ways to make ObamaCare less destructive. Senate Republicans should try to retain it in their compromise.

This is the quality of thinking—or lack thereof—that has afflicted many GOP conservatives from the beginning of this budget showdown. They picked a goal they couldn't achieve in trying to defund ObamaCare from one House of Congress, and then they picked a means they couldn't sustain politically by pursuing a long government shutdown and threatening to blow through the debt limit.

President Obama called their bluff, no doubt in part to blame the disruption on the GOP and further tarnish the party's public image. Now the most Republicans will get out of this is lower public approval and a chance to negotiate with Mr. Obama again before the next debt-limit deadline. If the Senate passes its compromise, Mr. Boehner will have little choice other than to bring it to the floor and let it pass with votes from either party. Mr. Obama will have to deliver enough Democratic votes to pass it.

At least that's better than getting the blame for whatever happens if Treasury stops sending out Social Security checks in order to prioritize debt repayments. The politics of that are little better than defaulting on debt. Republicans can best help their cause now by getting this over with and moving on to fight more intelligently another day.
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Old 10-16-2013, 10:29 AM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
This is false. We can't prioritize individual check, but we can prioritize check runs. Tell me you don't believe that we run interest payment checks with welfare checks.

Yeah, right.

If they don't solve it, the world ends by 11/1 in terms of a default, if not a bit earlier. Alot of very, very smart people are trying to run the numbers, and a precise date isn't possible due to lumpy income streams for the feds, etc., but by 11/1 (fi not sooner), there will be far too much to pay out (including SS) to cover.
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Old 10-16-2013, 10:30 AM   #65
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Hey AC, are you fidning much genius, intentional or otherwise, in the Republican's strategy at this point?

Looks to me like all they've really managed to do is f the country and f themselves...
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Old 10-16-2013, 10:47 AM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
We're not going to default. That's ridiculous.

People need to quit saying that. Obama would have to willfully default, and no president would ever do that. Default doesn't happen out of happenstance. The President would have to actually choose to default. The amount of interest payments is a small figure and is under zero threat of not being paid - unless Obama chooses to.

Now welfare, on the other hand... That's not the same as a default, but that's where the cuts will most likely come from. Unless Obama chooses to prioritize it over defense. That's his call.
I am not so sure he wouldn't, neither is speaker Boner, hence the cave. Obama hates the constitution, who set it up, and how it works. It says what the government "must not do", not what it "must do".

After all, once the country defaulted, all of the cultist worshipers in Obama's cult would blame the democrats of racism and god knows what else for "letting this happen", all the while it being his discretion not to pay the interest on the debt first.

Obama wants to rule this country as a king with the power of the purse. You can still call him president if that makes you feel better, but he shall not be constrained by one half of one branch of the Congress. After all "Congress has a 15 % approval rating". Same breath, blame the poor approval rating of ALL OF CONGRESS on the one half of one branch of the Congress.

He has his cake, and he eats it too. He doesn't negotiate with such a body politic, he is above it all. Let Harry Reid and bitch mcconnal do that.

"Harry, get me something I can sign, you can reach me at the golf course".
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Old 10-16-2013, 10:51 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Hey AC, are you fidning much genius, intentional or otherwise, in the Republican's strategy at this point?

Looks to me like all they've really managed to do is f the country and f themselves...
As reflected in the highest anti-incumbency sentiment on record. It takes a special kind of obliviousness to think that most voters are cool with monkeying with the nation's credit rating to further a partisan agenda.

Quote:
[T]here’s a new number in a national Pew poll that should give incumbents who assume that people hating Congress will exempt them in the next election some pause. That number? Thirty eight percent — as in 38 percent of people who say they do not want to see their own Member of Congress re-elected in 2014. While that number is far lower than the 74 percent who say they would like to see most Members of Congress lose, it’s still the highest percentage wanting to get rid of their own member in more than two decades of Pew polling.
http://www.people-press.org/2013/10/...cism-persists/

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Old 10-16-2013, 11:12 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Dude you have already proven to us that you don't have a clue what a DEFAULT means. No need to drive the point home.
No, a default occurs when the country either announces an intent to delay, skip, reduce, or alter any payments that they are going to make.

You narrowing default to our debt only doesn't change the reality that any prioritization or skipping any payments for the government is a default.

Also, the Treasury has enough money to go anywhere from a week past tomorrow until the end of the month.

Every conference call that I've been on last week and this week, have been pointing out how big a deal this is and what constitutes default and how long the Treasury can continue to pay.
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Old 10-16-2013, 11:13 AM   #69
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The only purpose of the chart is to illustrate why we won't default after the 17th. All the rest is political yadda that doesn't really pertain to the actual matter of the default that is being threatened by the white house. There is no default that is going to happen. Even Obama isn't that petty.
If Congress doesn't get something done within a couple weeks of tomorrow then we will default. Goddamn you are a stupid mother****er.
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Old 10-16-2013, 11:16 AM   #70
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The checks are automated. If they weren't able to put up a functioning web site with 3 years notice, do you really think they should attempt to cobble together financial software overnight? That would not end well. I don't think cutting entitlements or other automated payments is a viable option.

If I were Obama, I'd just keep spending money and let them try to impeach me. None of the options available (based on the damage they would do to the country) are worth keeping office over. He'd be better to fall on the sword than to pick any of the "options". I don't think the public would support an impeachment over this issue anyway.
Cutting payments, prioritizing payments, and all the other schemes put forth are a default.

I agree on the second paragraph.
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Old 10-16-2013, 11:23 AM   #71
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If Congress doesn't get something done within a couple weeks of tomorrow then we will default. Goddamn you are a stupid mother****er.
Then why do we have to be committed to spending so DAMNED MUCH MONEY!!!

Is it so the fool stamps can have a bama fon3?
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Old 10-16-2013, 11:25 AM   #72
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Old 10-16-2013, 11:26 AM   #73
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I sure am glad that Austin Chief doesn't "hold a gun to our head" with regards to being free loading members of the planet.
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Old 10-16-2013, 11:49 AM   #74
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I am not so sure he wouldn't, neither is speaker Boner, hence the cave. Obama hates the constitution, who set it up, and how it works. It says what the government "must not do", not what it "must do".

After all, once the country defaulted, all of the cultist worshipers in Obama's cult would blame the democrats of racism and god knows what else for "letting this happen", all the while it being his discretion not to pay the interest on the debt first.

Obama wants to rule this country as a king with the power of the purse. You can still call him president if that makes you feel better, but he shall not be constrained by one half of one branch of the Congress. After all "Congress has a 15 % approval rating". Same breath, blame the poor approval rating of ALL OF CONGRESS on the one half of one branch of the Congress.

He has his cake, and he eats it too. He doesn't negotiate with such a body politic, he is above it all. Let Harry Reid and bitch mcconnal do that.

"Harry, get me something I can sign, you can reach me at the golf course".
A nice mix of lunacy and butthurt here.
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Old 10-16-2013, 12:29 PM   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Regarding the OP, whatever marginal benefit there may be in forcing the Dems to "own it" (I do not think there was ever any chance at all that the Dems would have sheepishly proposed an individual mandate delay, but who knows), I think is far more than countered by the fact that the debt ceiling fight wiped out the Obamacare launch failure stories in the news cycle.

There will still be some chatter about that as they try to get things fixed, but the GOP could have made a lot of hay over the failed launch. There were quite a lot of stories around October 1st with Republicans basically going "Oh God, this stupid Cruz stunt ruined our ability to scream about the launch"
I think you are dead wrong about a delay. Obamacare's launch has been a complete disaster and I think without the GOP fight on this the Dems would have happily delayed it enough to get it fixed.

It's ludicrous to think that this shutdown has driven Obamacare from the news and it won't be a top story for the rest of the year. The shutdown is about to end and NOW the media can focus on Obamacare and the defenders can't even use the tired "it's a popular launch, give it a few days" excuse anymore.
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