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Old 10-15-2013, 03:08 PM  
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The (unintended) genious of the GOP debt ceiling "plan"

I highly doubt that the GOP planned any of this but I think the current situation has a good chance of working out heavily in their favor IF they accept some minor concessions from the Dems and move on.

Here is why...

If they had simply made this fight about spending and NOT tried to force the Dems to defund or delay Obamacare I honestly think the Dems would have put forth a delay themselves after finding out how far from finished the website truly was. As it stands the GOP's stance has made it impossible for the Dems to enact a delay without giving the GOP a massive "win."

I have stated all along that an Obamacare delay would backfire against the GOP by 1)pushing this massively unpopular issue back past the next election and 2)giving the Dems time to "fix" the system enough to make it more palatable.

The debt ceiling issue and govt shutdown will be long forgotten from the ephemeral public consciousness by the time the next election hits. What little memory remains will be of how the current govt doesn't work and we need to "throw the bums out." That kind of attitude hurts the Dems FAR worse than it does the GOP.

Barring more GOP screwups I honestly think we'll see a 50/50 or 51/49 split after 2014. (Of course 50/50 doesn't help the GOP much)
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Old 10-16-2013, 01:34 PM   #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
This. The problems are definitely not over for that laughable technology, but it gave Obama and administration a chance to at least troubleshoot the huge issues and fix them under the radar.
You are underestimating how massive the failure is. The website is no more functional than it was Oct. 1st. But now if the problems drag out for another month or two (it's at 1/2 a month already) the Dems can't delay things without taking a huge loss.
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Old 10-16-2013, 01:38 PM   #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
The checks are automated. If they weren't able to put up a functioning web site with 3 years notice, do you really think they should attempt to cobble together financial software overnight? That would not end well. I don't think cutting entitlements or other automated payments is a viable option.
If you kept reading you'll see I said that it would take time for a long term solution but a band aid emergency fix is very likely possible. Without intimate knowledge of the system none of us can say for sure either way.

BTW my understanding of the system is that it doesn't "cut checks" it operates more like ACH (or probably EXACTLY like ACH) in that you have approved transactions that come in to the system requesting money and the money goes out. To get an emergency fix, you'd have to stop the various systems you don't want to pay on from requesting.
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Old 10-16-2013, 01:42 PM   #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Hey AC, are you fidning much genius, intentional or otherwise, in the Republican's strategy at this point?

Looks to me like all they've really managed to do is f the country and f themselves...
Did you not see the UNINTENDED part of the OP? I wouldn't exactly call it a strategy.

But YES I hold with my comments in the OP. As I stated, the GOP needs to accept minor concessions and MOVE ON at this point. It appears they are doing just that. The Dems will crow about "winning" but the fact is they are stuck with an Obamacare they can;t delay even though it would help them immensely to do so... and growing "throw the bums out" sentiment which hurts them FAR FAR more than it hurts the GOP.

So yes. Genious!
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Old 10-16-2013, 01:44 PM   #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cave Johnson View Post
As reflected in the highest anti-incumbency sentiment on record. It takes a special kind of obliviousness to think that most voters are cool with monkeying with the nation's credit rating to further a partisan agenda.
Oh look, something that inherently helps the GOP. Again, I don't think this was planned but I think they will have stumbled onto something that helps them in 2014. (barring some unforeseen screwups)
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Old 10-16-2013, 01:47 PM   #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
No, a default occurs when the country either announces an intent to delay, skip, reduce, or alter any payments that they are going to make.

You narrowing default to our debt only doesn't change the reality that any prioritization or skipping any payments for the government is a default.
Complete and utter bullshit and you should know better. In this context when talking about "default", the term means a US DEBT DEFAULT and you know it.

YOU are the one trying to take what is a clearly defined term and stretch it to cover your agenda.

Seriously, **** you for pulling that bullshit. That's dishonest as hell.
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Old 10-16-2013, 01:52 PM   #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
Cutting payments, prioritizing payments, and all the other schemes put forth are a default.
No they aren't. They are not the DEFAULT we are talking about. Trying to broaden the use of the word in this context is a disingenuous scumbag move and you know it.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:07 PM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Regarding the OP, whatever marginal benefit there may be in forcing the Dems to "own it" (I do not think there was ever any chance at all that the Dems would have sheepishly proposed an individual mandate delay, but who knows), I think is far more than countered by the fact that the debt ceiling fight wiped out the Obamacare launch failure stories in the news cycle.

There will still be some chatter about that as they try to get things fixed, but the GOP could have made a lot of hay over the failed launch. There were quite a lot of stories around October 1st with Republicans basically going "Oh God, this stupid Cruz stunt ruined our ability to scream about the launch"
This whole idea that Obamacare has been pushed out of the news is silly. What do you think this fight is all about? It's context. The conservatives didn't set up this fight just because they felt like shutting the government down. They set it up to build a beacon for the disaster that is ahead of us.

Obamacare is imploding. This isn't a one or two news cycle thing. This thing is unworkable from a technology standpoint. I'm in the position to talk to a lot of IT leaders based on what I do for a living, and to the last man, they say it's a technological disaster with huge gaps where certain technologies to make it all work don't even EXIST. And that's just talking about making the thing talk to itself.

And that's without mentioning the security. The security part of this is literally on square one. Distributed computing of this nature is a brand new phenomenon for an enterprise venture of this magnitude. We're talking about a type of computing where security didn't matter before, and now they are trying to cram an entire industry into it overnight.

And we haven't even touched the economics yet where people are seeing their premiums double and triple. There isn't a person with a career job on this forum who isn't going to see at least $100 extra come out of their paycheck each pay period. How many here can afford losing $200 a month from their bottom line? And that's a conservative estimate. I've personally seen people who are having to pay doulbe what they were paying. A good friend of mine went from $600 a month to $1200 a month more because he's a self insured small business owner. So what did he do? He layed someone off - which sucks for him because he needed that person for his growth plans. Those are on hold now.

All this talk about what a mistake the conservatives are making... It's just talk. Nobody expected to win this thing here. This isn't about winning the short game. This is about setting up the playing field for 2014, and there are going to be plenty of people RUNNING on the fact that they took this stand here for the American people.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:07 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Oh look, something that inherently helps the GOP. Again, I don't think this was planned but I think they will have stumbled onto something that helps them in 2014. (barring some unforeseen screwups)
The question was representative in Congress, which, last I checked, was controlled by Republicans.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:10 PM   #84
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when talking about default in your context default is a clearly defined term...

but when other people, generally democrats, talk about it their context is the economy can't absorb a shock worse than the financial meltdown that led to the great recession, before we had even reached the default deadline...

in that context, default is anything that smells like we won't pay our bills on time, icnluding all the things that race card described...

i don't see what's dishonest about holding a different view...
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:19 PM   #85
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AC, you are persistent, I'll give you that.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:20 PM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go bowe View Post
when talking about default in your context default is a clearly defined term, clearly...

but when other people, generally democrats, talk about it their context is the economy can't absorb a shock worse than the financial meltdown that led to the great recession before we had even reached the default deadline...

in that context, default is anything that smells like we won't pay our bills on time, just as race card set out...

i don't see what's dishonest about holding a different view...
Ah, FOR HIM it's dishonest because he works in finance and the term(unless otherwise specified) has this specific meaning. That is why it is particularly onerous coming from him.

There is another issue that makes it dishonest as well... you can't STRETCH the term default to mean "not paying for anything I want to pay for." THat is what he is trying to do. You could possibly stretch it to mean all OBLIGATED payments (also a DEFINED term) but we have enough revenue to cover all of those as well. Social Security is a good example of an obligated payment. On the other hand, paying to keep the FDA running is NOT an obligated payment.

So if he wants to use default to cover all obligated payments (he really should specify that but owell) he would still be wrong.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:20 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
AC, you are persistent, I'll give you that.
He's like a weeble of fail....
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:22 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by Cave Johnson View Post
The question was representative in Congress, which, last I checked, was controlled by Republicans.
It's indicative of the overall sentiment that we need to "throw the bums out." Unless you are delusional and think the GOP is losing the House then the implications are that the Senate is in play.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:23 PM   #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
And we haven't even touched the economics yet where people are seeing their premiums double and triple.
Where is your evidence of this? Please refrain from posting apples to oranges anecdotal evidence that you got off Drudge.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:24 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by Cave Johnson View Post
He's like a weeble of fail....
Listen moron. You have yet to address anything stated in the OP. Troll all you want but it's pretty obvious you either aren't smart enough or aren't knowledgeable enough to offer anything of value to the conversation.
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