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Old 10-15-2013, 02:08 PM  
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The (unintended) genious of the GOP debt ceiling "plan"

I highly doubt that the GOP planned any of this but I think the current situation has a good chance of working out heavily in their favor IF they accept some minor concessions from the Dems and move on.

Here is why...

If they had simply made this fight about spending and NOT tried to force the Dems to defund or delay Obamacare I honestly think the Dems would have put forth a delay themselves after finding out how far from finished the website truly was. As it stands the GOP's stance has made it impossible for the Dems to enact a delay without giving the GOP a massive "win."

I have stated all along that an Obamacare delay would backfire against the GOP by 1)pushing this massively unpopular issue back past the next election and 2)giving the Dems time to "fix" the system enough to make it more palatable.

The debt ceiling issue and govt shutdown will be long forgotten from the ephemeral public consciousness by the time the next election hits. What little memory remains will be of how the current govt doesn't work and we need to "throw the bums out." That kind of attitude hurts the Dems FAR worse than it does the GOP.

Barring more GOP screwups I honestly think we'll see a 50/50 or 51/49 split after 2014. (Of course 50/50 doesn't help the GOP much)
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:09 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
We have enough revenue to cover the bills for a week to two weeks past the 17th absent a deal.

No deal means a technical default. A technical default means default. No amount of arguing changes that.
DAMN DUDE. Listen up. A technical default is on obligated payments. Period. We have enough money to pay them INDEFINITELY. But if we allow all payments to go out you are correct, we will default on debt and everything... but that is a CHOICE.

Not paying for Food Stamps or the FBI is NOT A DEFAULT. PERIOD. If you CHOSE to pay for them and then not have enough for OBLIGATED PAYMENTS, then sure you will default.

No deal does NOT mean a technical default unless we decide to make non obligated payments.

Let's be clear yet again. WE HAVE ENOUGH REVENUE TO SERVICE OUR DEBT AND MAKE ALL OBLIGATED PAYMENTS.

You can NOT stretch the term "default" to include non obligated payments on food stamps or education.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:10 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Persistent, wrong and hostile...always a winning combination.
yep, wrong just like that idiot who said the last credit downgrade really must have hurt us on interest payments... that guy sure cut stumps and ran from his idiotic statements once it was shown he had no clue what he was talking about...
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:14 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
DAMN DUDE. Listen up. A technical default is on obligated payments. Period. We have enough money to pay them INDEFINITELY. But if we allow all payments to go out you are correct, we will default on debt and everything... but that is a CHOICE.

Not paying for Food Stamps or the FBI is NOT A DEFAULT. PERIOD. If you CHOSE to pay for them and then not have enough for OBLIGATED PAYMENTS, then sure you will default.

No deal does NOT mean a technical default unless we decide to make non obligated payments.

Let's be clear yet again. WE HAVE ENOUGH REVENUE TO SERVICE OUR DEBT AND MAKE ALL OBLIGATED PAYMENTS.

You can NOT stretch the term "default" to include non obligated payments on food stamps or education.
Your arguing of semantics over practical reality is just obnoxious. So don't call it a default. Call it whatever you want. If the consequence is the same as a default, you should just about it already.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:16 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
yep, wrong just like that idiot who said the last credit downgrade really must have hurt us on interest payments... that guy sure cut stumps and ran from his idiotic statements once it was shown he had no clue what he was talking about...
I didn't run, but I know the futility of arguing with someone who will argue that black is white until he runs out of breath. It did cost us interest, but in your typical style you chose to make irrelevant comparisons and argue it wasn't a "massive" expense.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:21 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
DAMN DUDE. Listen up. A technical default is on obligated payments. Period. We have enough money to pay them INDEFINITELY. But if we allow all payments to go out you are correct, we will default on debt and everything... but that is a CHOICE.

Not paying for Food Stamps or the FBI is NOT A DEFAULT. PERIOD. If you CHOSE to pay for them and then not have enough for OBLIGATED PAYMENTS, then sure you will default.

No deal does NOT mean a technical default unless we decide to make non obligated payments.

Let's be clear yet again. WE HAVE ENOUGH REVENUE TO SERVICE OUR DEBT AND MAKE ALL OBLIGATED PAYMENTS.

You can NOT stretch the term "default" to include non obligated payments on food stamps or education.
That's not my understand (in terms of being able to make obligated payments). My understanding is that the treasury will have about $30 billion cash on hand at midnight tonight, plus whatever tax revenues come in, to pay its obligations.

My understanding is that by NO LATER than November 1, it will be unable to meet its payment obligations. November 1 is a magic date because it includes Social Security, military pay, veteran's benefits, and interest on government obligations. Those alone total over $67 billion.

If the feds fail to pay its sovereign debt obligations, of course, then all bets are off. Mutual funds are not permitted to hold defaulted securities, which would mean the largest, fire sale of US bonds (or any bonds) ever seen would happen. US bonds are also often used as collateral for short term inter-bank loans etc., and underpin world financial markets.

Then you have the fact that many foreign holders (including sovereign funds) that hold U.S. bonds and roll them over whenever they come due may well not roll them over, and what you have is a unimaginable catastrophe that would result.

I guess you're saying we could opt not to pay the military in order to pay interest on our debt, so we aren't in payment default, but ....seriously...?
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:21 PM   #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
I didn't run, but I know the futility of arguing with someone who will argue that black is white until he runs out of breath. It did cost us interest, but in your typical style you chose to make irrelevant comparisons and argue it wasn't a "massive" expense.
Hah black is white? I SHOWED YOU the FACTS. We did not see a bump in interest rates. You claimed we did. That isn't semantics.

Please back up your claim. I have yet to see any facts from you.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:22 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Your arguing of semantics over practical reality is just obnoxious. So don't call it a default. Call it whatever you want. If the consequence is the same as a default, you should just about it already.
The consequences of cutting funding for the FDA or food stamps are not at the same as not making payments on our OBLIGATIONS. These are not semantic arguments. These are simple facts.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:27 PM   #113
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
DAMN DUDE. Listen up. A technical default is on obligated payments. Period. We have enough money to pay them INDEFINITELY. But if we allow all payments to go out you are correct, we will default on debt and everything... but that is a CHOICE.

Not paying for Food Stamps or the FBI is NOT A DEFAULT. PERIOD. If you CHOSE to pay for them and then not have enough for OBLIGATED PAYMENTS, then sure you will default.

No deal does NOT mean a technical default unless we decide to make non obligated payments.

Let's be clear yet again. WE HAVE ENOUGH REVENUE TO SERVICE OUR DEBT AND MAKE ALL OBLIGATED PAYMENTS.

You can NOT stretch the term "default" to include non obligated payments on food stamps or education.

Your language is confusing me because you're using terms of art that have a specific meaning, but not in the right way. There are two types of defaults on debt obligations -- (1) payment default (or "debt service default") and (2) covenant default (or "technical default"). Payment default is a failure to pay interest or principal when due (after the lapsing of any applicable grace period). Covenant default is any other failure to comply with the obligations of the contract by which the debt was incurred.

Best to avoid referring to "technical default" in the manner you have been. Just call it a default. "It's not a default if we decide not to pay the FBI or whatever" is fine.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:31 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
That's not my understand (in terms of being able to make obligated payments). My understanding is that the treasury will have about $30 billion cash on hand at midnight tonight, plus whatever tax revenues come in, to pay its obligations.

My understanding is that by NO LATER than November 1, it will be unable to meet its payment obligations. November 1 is a magic date because it includes Social Security, military pay, veteran's benefits, and interest on government obligations. Those alone total over $67 billion.
You are correct that if we continue to pay non-obligated payments right up until the 1st we would likely default(I haven't run the numbers to be sure but let's roll with that). That is a CHOICE to make those payments from the 17th to the 1st. Actually it was a choice we already made starting Oct 1st. So if we default it is because we kept paying non-obligated payments up until we had to make our 1st of the month balloon payment on obligations.

It's the age old failure (of both parties) to ever make hard political decisions when faced with them. Instead we kick the can down the road in the form of debt increases.

I am not advocating drastic deep cuts btw. I am simply trying to clear up the rash of misconceptions regarding what default actually means and what our true OBLIGATIONS are. I am fine with a debt increase right now since we have no plan in place to handle the lack of one. If I were in charge of this mess I would have made ONE demand and one only. I would increase the debt limit IF we agree to put a system in place to allow HR807 or something similar to effectively be put in place within the next 3 years.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:32 PM   #115
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There is no strong evidence that the democrats would’ve delayed opening up the website.

Republicans could have spent the last couple of weeks using all their energy on the website, instead they focused on the shutdown battle which got them nothing. They are now viewed more unfavorably than if they have done nothing at all. They actually somehow made Obamacare more popular when in all fairness it should have been getting slammed for how horribly the website was designed.

While the website is nowhere near fixed, it is functioning a lot better than it was two weeks ago which again is when the Republicans should have made that the main news story instead of the shutdown.

I applaud your enthusiasm for your favorite political party.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:32 PM   #116
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I will openly admit those debating here exceed my knowledge on this subject. As a betting man I would fancy a wager these shitbags swing a deal before we default on anything~
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:32 PM   #117
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It's indicative of the overall sentiment that we need to "throw the bums out." Unless you are delusional and think the GOP is losing the House then the implications are that the Senate is in play.
And on the Senate side, the track record of the last 3-ish years is for the R's to nominate some unelectable wingnut.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:33 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
That's not my understand (in terms of being able to make obligated payments). My understanding is that the treasury will have about $30 billion cash on hand at midnight tonight, plus whatever tax revenues come in, to pay its obligations.

My understanding is that by NO LATER than November 1, it will be unable to meet its payment obligations. November 1 is a magic date because it includes Social Security, military pay, veteran's benefits, and interest on government obligations. Those alone total over $67 billion.

If the feds fail to pay its sovereign debt obligations, of course, then all bets are off. Mutual funds are not permitted to hold defaulted securities, which would mean the largest, fire sale of US bonds (or any bonds) ever seen would happen. US bonds are also often used as collateral for short term inter-bank loans etc., and underpin world financial markets.

Then you have the fact that many foreign holders (including sovereign funds) that hold U.S. bonds and roll them over whenever they come due may well not roll them over, and what you have is a unimaginable catastrophe that would result.

I guess you're saying we could opt not to pay the military in order to pay interest on our debt, so we aren't in payment default, but ....seriously...?
This would be correct.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:35 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Your language is confusing me because you're using terms of art that have a specific meaning, but not in the right way. There are two types of defaults on debt obligations -- (1) payment default (or "debt service default") and (2) covenant default (or "technical default"). Payment default is a failure to pay interest or principal when due (after the lapsing of any applicable grace period). Covenant default is any other failure to comply with the obligations of the contract by which the debt was incurred.

Best to avoid referring to "technical default" in the manner you have been. Just call it a default. "It's not a default if we decide not to pay the FBI or whatever" is fine.
Oh I agree. I am only using that term because earlier KCNative tried to use that term to include any and all "shit we normally pay for."

Hell if we expand technical default to be that inclusive (as he wants to make it) then we are CURRENTLY in technical default because of the govt shutdown.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:35 PM   #120
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And on the Senate side, the track record of the last 3-ish years is for the R's to nominate some unelectable wingnut.
I made that caveat earlier about the GOP still having ample time to **** it all up. I'm not an idiot.
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