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Old 10-15-2013, 02:08 PM  
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
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The (unintended) genious of the GOP debt ceiling "plan"

I highly doubt that the GOP planned any of this but I think the current situation has a good chance of working out heavily in their favor IF they accept some minor concessions from the Dems and move on.

Here is why...

If they had simply made this fight about spending and NOT tried to force the Dems to defund or delay Obamacare I honestly think the Dems would have put forth a delay themselves after finding out how far from finished the website truly was. As it stands the GOP's stance has made it impossible for the Dems to enact a delay without giving the GOP a massive "win."

I have stated all along that an Obamacare delay would backfire against the GOP by 1)pushing this massively unpopular issue back past the next election and 2)giving the Dems time to "fix" the system enough to make it more palatable.

The debt ceiling issue and govt shutdown will be long forgotten from the ephemeral public consciousness by the time the next election hits. What little memory remains will be of how the current govt doesn't work and we need to "throw the bums out." That kind of attitude hurts the Dems FAR worse than it does the GOP.

Barring more GOP screwups I honestly think we'll see a 50/50 or 51/49 split after 2014. (Of course 50/50 doesn't help the GOP much)
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:35 PM   #121
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:37 PM   #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
You are correct that if we continue to pay non-obligated payments right up until the 1st we would likely default(I haven't run the numbers to be sure but let's roll with that). That is a CHOICE to make those payments from the 17th to the 1st. Actually it was a choice we already made starting Oct 1st. So if we default it is because we kept paying non-obligated payments up until we had to make our 1st of the month balloon payment on obligations.

It's the age old failure (of both parties) to ever make hard political decisions when faced with them. Instead we kick the can down the road in the form of debt increases.

I am not advocating drastic deep cuts btw. I am simply trying to clear up the rash of misconceptions regarding what default actually means and what our true OBLIGATIONS are. I am fine with a debt increase right now since we have no plan in place to handle the lack of one. If I were in charge of this mess I would have made ONE demand and one only. I would increase the debt limit IF we agree to put a system in place to allow HR807 or something similar to effectively be put in place within the next 3 years.
No, it's not a choice. By not making those payments, we would be in technical default.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:37 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by chuxtrux View Post
There is no strong evidence that the democrats would’ve delayed opening up the website.

Republicans could have spent the last couple of weeks using all their energy on the website, instead they focused on the shutdown battle which got them nothing. They are now viewed more unfavorably than if they have done nothing at all. They actually somehow made Obamacare more popular when in all fairness it should have been getting slammed for how horribly the website was designed.

While the website is nowhere near fixed, it is functioning a lot better than it was two weeks ago which again is when the Republicans should have made that the main news story instead of the shutdown.

I applaud your enthusiasm for your favorite political party.
You have any proof of this. I have proof to the contrary.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:38 PM   #124
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Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
No, it's not a choice. By not making those payments, we would be in technical default.
Again. No we wouldn't. By your incredibly broad definition we are already in technical default due to the govt shutdown. We stopped paying on certain services then right?
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:38 PM   #125
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Oh I agree. I am only using that term because earlier KCNative tried to use that term to include any and all "shit we normally pay for."

Hell if we expand technical default to be that inclusive (as he wants to make it) then we are CURRENTLY in technical default because of the govt shutdown.
No, we aren't. The Treasury is not delaying, prioritizing, nor reducing payments. They are carrying on with business as usual.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:39 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by RNR View Post
I will openly admit those debating here exceed my knowledge on this subject. As a betting man I would fancy a wager these shitbags swing a deal before we default on anything~
Oh for sure. I just hate hearing the bullshit from people who clearly want to redefine the terms to fit their political narrative.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:40 PM   #127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
You are correct that if we continue to pay non-obligated payments right up until the 1st we would likely default(I haven't run the numbers to be sure but let's roll with that). That is a CHOICE to make those payments from the 17th to the 1st. Actually it was a choice we already made starting Oct 1st. So if we default it is because we kept paying non-obligated payments up until we had to make our 1st of the month balloon payment on obligations.

I guess. I know that many hedge funds and other big players in the private world have crunched alot of numbers and all agree that by 11/1 we'll be out of money.

The question is what items are truly optional, and what are not. I would think that making, for example, Social Security payments and paying the military aren't in any real sense optional.

I also note that, for example, there are federal wage and hour laws. I have no idea if the federal government itself is exempt from them, but it would seem to me that if the feds failed to pay anyone's salary (or any department's salary) for personnel not furloughed, then they would be inviting a massive and expensive class action.

Quote:
I am not advocating drastic deep cuts btw. I am simply trying to clear up the rash of misconceptions regarding what default actually means and what our true OBLIGATIONS are.
I understand. You're separating debt obligations (obligations to make payments on US government issued bonds) from other obligations (federal workforce pay, etc.). I'm uncertain, however, whether at least some of those other obligations aren't OBLIGATIONS in the sense that you mean. I assume Social Security payments are legal obligations, though it's not on sovereign debt.

Quote:
I am fine with a debt increase right now since we have no plan in place to handle the lack of one. If I were in charge of this mess I would have made ONE demand and one only. I would increase the debt limit IF we agree to put a system in place to allow HR807 or something similar to effectively be put in place within the next 3 years.
Agreed that we need a path to fiscal sanity. What else can you say?
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:45 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
No, we aren't. The Treasury is not delaying, prioritizing, nor reducing payments. They are carrying on with business as usual.
Holy crap. You are clueless. Ok let's do this "for dummies"

Imagine the treasury as a big pool of money that different depts/entities/etc simply dip into for outlays. (This is a lot closer to reality then the idea that the treasury "cuts checks") Now with the govt "shutdown" many of those entities took much smaller dips into the pool of money right? Let's say you EXPAND the shutdown to be closer to a true shutdown where the FDA, FBI, CIA, Food Stamps, Medicaid(not Medicare), Dept of Education, etc are actually shutdown. If you "shutdown" enough of them (or enough parts of them) they no longer DIP into the treasury pool and you have plenty of revenue left for debt service and Social Security and all our OBLIGATIONS. If you are claiming to do so would be a default then you MUST claim that what we have already done with the shutdown is a default.

Last edited by AustinChief; 10-16-2013 at 03:50 PM..
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:49 PM   #129
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Oh for sure. I just hate hearing the bullshit from people who clearly want to redefine the terms to fit their political narrative.
As you have already pointed out it will be nothing more than kicking the worn and dented can down the road. It will be done with the assurance that once things are stable we will get to the business of settling up with our out of control spending. We will continue kicking this can until there is no can left to kick~
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:50 PM   #130
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
I guess. I know that many hedge funds and other big players in the private world have crunched alot of numbers and all agree that by 11/1 we'll be out of money.

The question is what items are truly optional, and what are not. I would think that making, for example, Social Security payments and paying the military aren't in any real sense optional.

I also note that, for example, there are federal wage and hour laws. I have no idea if the federal government itself is exempt from them, but it would seem to me that if the feds failed to pay anyone's salary (or any department's salary) for personnel not furloughed, then they would be inviting a massive and expensive class action.



I understand. You're separating debt obligations (obligations to make payments on US government issued bonds) from other obligations (federal workforce pay, etc.). I'm uncertain, however, whether at least some of those other obligations aren't OBLIGATIONS in the sense that you mean. I assume Social Security payments are legal obligations, though it's not on sovereign debt.
I am separating debt obligations but I'm willing to discuss all other actual OBLIGATIONS. Where the problem lies is that many see any old thing as an OBLIGATION when in fact it is not. Social Security is a prime example. That is an OBLIGATED payment. I am unsure on Medicare but let's lump it in for good measure. Medicaid on the other hand IS NOT.

I don't think anyone is arguing that if we stay the course we are on we can't make even our obligated payments on 11/1 we MAY be able to service our debt but that is iffy as well. That is a choice we made Oct 1st and continue to make since no one believes the debt ceiling will really not get raised.
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:04 PM   #131
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You have any proof of this. I have proof to the contrary.
You are stating that the website is worse today than two weeks ago when essentially nobody could do anything on the site?
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:12 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by chuxtrux View Post
You are stating that the website is worse today than two weeks ago when essentially nobody could do anything on the site?
You might want to define every word in that sentence because he will argue semantic details until he runs out of breath/strength in his fingers to type.
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:13 PM   #133
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Originally Posted by chuxtrux View Post
You are stating that the website is worse today than two weeks ago when essentially nobody could do anything on the site?
No I have stated that it is essentially the same. Non functional for the vast majority of people attempting to use it. YOU are the one claiming it is somehow better.

Unless by "better" you mean you can now get IN the site but not actually do anything... I don't consider that better. Nor does Joe InsuranceBuyer
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:14 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
You might want to define every word in that sentence because he will argue semantic details until he runs out of breath/strength in his fingers to type.
Ah the desperate rambling of the proven wrong... "I am too stupid to follow along so I will claim it's SEMANTICS!"

Please explain to us all the "semantics" of you saying interest rates rose after the S&P downgrade yet the FIGURES to back that up DO NOT EXIST. But it's all just semantics right?
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Old 10-16-2013, 05:41 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
No I have stated that it is essentially the same. Non functional for the vast majority of people attempting to use it. YOU are the one claiming it is somehow better.

Unless by "better" you mean you can now get IN the site but not actually do anything... I don't consider that better. Nor does Joe InsuranceBuyer
I don't give a shit either way because I have insurance that I'm happy with and just held our benefits meeting at work yesterday where I learned my insurance will be going up a whopping $8 a month, but I decided to go to the healthcare.gov website to test both sides of this argument. I was able to create an account in about 5 minutes and have them send me my confirmation email with a link to the marketplace. I was able to view plans in the marketplace, but admittedly I didn't spend much time on the website.

I know there are well advertised problems with the rollout, but tonight I didn't have any issues.
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