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Old 10-15-2013, 03:08 PM  
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
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The (unintended) genious of the GOP debt ceiling "plan"

I highly doubt that the GOP planned any of this but I think the current situation has a good chance of working out heavily in their favor IF they accept some minor concessions from the Dems and move on.

Here is why...

If they had simply made this fight about spending and NOT tried to force the Dems to defund or delay Obamacare I honestly think the Dems would have put forth a delay themselves after finding out how far from finished the website truly was. As it stands the GOP's stance has made it impossible for the Dems to enact a delay without giving the GOP a massive "win."

I have stated all along that an Obamacare delay would backfire against the GOP by 1)pushing this massively unpopular issue back past the next election and 2)giving the Dems time to "fix" the system enough to make it more palatable.

The debt ceiling issue and govt shutdown will be long forgotten from the ephemeral public consciousness by the time the next election hits. What little memory remains will be of how the current govt doesn't work and we need to "throw the bums out." That kind of attitude hurts the Dems FAR worse than it does the GOP.

Barring more GOP screwups I honestly think we'll see a 50/50 or 51/49 split after 2014. (Of course 50/50 doesn't help the GOP much)
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Old 10-16-2013, 06:58 PM   #136
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Originally Posted by LoneWolf View Post
I don't give a shit either way because I have insurance that I'm happy with and just held our benefits meeting at work yesterday where I learned my insurance will be going up a whopping $8 a month, but I decided to go to the healthcare.gov website to test both sides of this argument. I was able to create an account in about 5 minutes and have them send me my confirmation email with a link to the marketplace. I was able to view plans in the marketplace, but admittedly I didn't spend much time on the website.

I know there are well advertised problems with the rollout, but tonight I didn't have any issues.
You must have hit the option to SKIP checking for subsidies and income verification because that has yet to come online. (They are claiming that will work in the next few days) There is also a big difference between viewing and actually signing up, the insurance companies are claiming the info they are receiving is garbage and will result in a massive number of applications being returned. Of course the sample size of people who got that far is so small who knows.
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Old 10-16-2013, 07:22 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
No I have stated that it is essentially the same. Non functional for the vast majority of people attempting to use it. YOU are the one claiming it is somehow better.

Unless by "better" you mean you can now get IN the site but not actually do anything... I don't consider that better. Nor does Joe InsuranceBuyer
If someone* held a gun to my head and asked what would Americans consider "better"

A) A website on 10/1 that doesn't allow anybody to do anything.
B) A website on 10/16 where more people than 10/1 are allowed to register and navigate through the site.

I would choose A because after reading this whole thread I kind of hope he would pull the trigger.

Going back to the main topic. If the Republicans plan was to manufacture a "crisis" that would get them nothing causing them to drop in the polls as well as taking people's attention off the Obamacare website, then yes, their debt ceiling plan was brilliant.

* - Before Prison Bitch asks, no, the hypothetical person holding the gun to my head wasn't black.

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Old 10-16-2013, 07:34 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
I didn't run, but I know the futility of arguing with someone who will argue that black is white until he runs out of breath. It did cost us interest, but in your typical style you chose to make irrelevant comparisons and argue it wasn't a "massive" expense.
Dude, it didn't cost you shit, in fact, your food stamp allotment just went up.
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Old 10-16-2013, 07:40 PM   #139
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Originally Posted by chuxtrux View Post
Going back to the main topic. If the Republicans plan was to manufacture a "crisis" that would get them nothing causing them to drop in the polls as well as taking people's attention off the Obamacare website, then yes, their debt ceiling plan was brilliant.
Again, I am not claiming it was a "plan" I am talking about unintended consequences. Simple premise: Because of their actions it is near impossible for the Dems to delay the rollout which so far has been a disaster. That's pretty much it. Time will tell whether the disastrous rollout will remain a disaster long enough for the effects to be significant enough.

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* - Before Prison Bitch asks, no, the hypothetical person holding the gun to my head wasn't black.
HAHAHA
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Old 10-16-2013, 07:53 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Holy crap. You are clueless. Ok let's do this "for dummies"

Imagine the treasury as a big pool of money that different depts/entities/etc simply dip into for outlays. (This is a lot closer to reality then the idea that the treasury "cuts checks") Now with the govt "shutdown" many of those entities took much smaller dips into the pool of money right? Let's say you EXPAND the shutdown to be closer to a true shutdown where the FDA, FBI, CIA, Food Stamps, Medicaid(not Medicare), Dept of Education, etc are actually shutdown. If you "shutdown" enough of them (or enough parts of them) they no longer DIP into the treasury pool and you have plenty of revenue left for debt service and Social Security and all our OBLIGATIONS. If you are claiming to do so would be a default then you MUST claim that what we have already done with the shutdown is a default.
Still tilting at windmills I see and engaging in ridiculous hypotheticals.

The fact of the matter is that without a deal, the Treasury runs out of money in a week to two weeks. Any slotting, prioritizing, delaying, reducing of any obligations (debt or otherwise) is a technical default. The Treasury is paying bills as normal right now so we aren't in default. No amount of hand wringing, semantics, or whatever else you want to call what you're doing changes any of that.
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:07 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
Still tilting at windmills I see and engaging in ridiculous hypotheticals.

The fact of the matter is that without a deal, the Treasury runs out of money in a week to two weeks. Any slotting, prioritizing, delaying, reducing of any obligations (debt or otherwise) is a technical default. The Treasury is paying bills as normal right now so we aren't in default. No amount of hand wringing, semantics, or whatever else you want to call what you're doing changes any of that.
Nice try. So you lost the debate and pretend to ignore the content of the post. Classy!

So, answer the question. Is the current govt shutdown a "technical" default? (Under your rules it is since we are reducing govt outlays by furloughing workers, shutting down services, etc)

Let's assume you aren't a COMPLETE moron and say no it isn't.

Now explain to all of us why it WOULD be a default (technical or otherwise) to expand the current govt shutdown until our revenue exceeds expenses? (and NO, to do so you do NOT have to touch any obligated payments such as debt service, social security , etc)

(for the record no one is advocating this, but we would like to hear you defend your ridiculous position)
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:14 PM   #142
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KCNative, You have been backed into a logical corner I'm gonna love seeing the contortions required to somehow get out of this one.

If a more extensive govt shutdown would be a default, why is the current one NOT a default? We are NOT talking about the Treasury having to do ONE DAMN THING. Instead the Executive branch simply stops the various departments (that are not OBLIGATED payments) from requesting as much from the T. That is EXACTLY what is going on right now under the current shutdown. (which is why the T has been able to stretch the time to a true default out a bit)
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:18 PM   #143
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Dude, it didn't cost you shit, in fact, your food stamp allotment just went up.
I really find this to be about the stupidest of all "insults." You don't know me or how much I make. But I'm supposed to be insulted because someone I don't know says I'm on food stamps. Ouch.

You are an idiot. This I can observe about you from your posts.
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:28 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Nice try. So you lost the debate and pretend to ignore the content of the post. Classy!

So, answer the question. Is the current govt shutdown a "technical" default? (Under your rules it is since we are reducing govt outlays by furloughing workers, shutting down services, etc)

Let's assume you aren't a COMPLETE moron and say no it isn't.

Now explain to all of us why it WOULD be a default (technical or otherwise) to expand the current govt shutdown until our revenue exceeds expenses? (and NO, to do so you do NOT have to touch any obligated payments such as debt service, social security , etc)

(for the record no one is advocating this, but we would like to hear you defend your ridiculous position)
You have a cartoonish view of how the Treasury works and how government fund flows actually happen.
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:31 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
KCNative, You have been backed into a logical corner I'm gonna love seeing the contortions required to somehow get out of this one.

If a more extensive govt shutdown would be a default, why is the current one NOT a default? We are NOT talking about the Treasury having to do ONE DAMN THING. Instead the Executive branch simply stops the various departments (that are not OBLIGATED payments) from requesting as much from the T. That is EXACTLY what is going on right now under the current shutdown. (which is why the T has been able to stretch the time to a true default out a bit)
It's not about logic. It's about understanding how fund flows actually work and how the real world works.

You've had another person tell you the exact same thing. I've listened to multiple fixed income managers say the same thing over the last two weeks.

You can believe it or not. Or, you could actually go look it up for yourself (I'm not holding my breath).
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:37 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
You have a cartoonish view of how the Treasury works and how government fund flows actually happen.
HAHAHA Nice attempt at again being a complete pussy and dodging the question. You can't be a man and admit you just got served here. Sad.

And no I don't have a cartoonish view of how the Treasury works you moron, I am putting it in simple terms here but please explain to all of your detailed knowledge of it and how it breaks my argument.

Let's break it down for you...

#1 Did the current govt shutdown reduce payments going out of the Treasury? [yes]

#2 Can the US expand the current shutdown without touching obligations such as debt service and Social Security? [Of Course]

#3 Would that be enough (obviously if done before the very last minute when we have a huge 1st of month payment) to cover obligated payments? [yes]

#4 Since you claim this is a "technical" default why is the current govt shutdown not a technical default? [....um.... YOU ArE DUMB! LET'S CHANGE THE SUBJECT!]

That's pretty much game set and match and if you were a man you'd admit it.
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:39 PM   #147
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Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
It's not about logic. It's about understanding how fund flows actually work and how the real world works.

You've had another person tell you the exact same thing. I've listened to multiple fixed income managers say the same thing over the last two weeks.

You can believe it or not. Or, you could actually go look it up for yourself (I'm not holding my breath).
Got it. So the current govt shutdown DID NOT reduce outlays from the T? Cuz those funds just flow nonstop regardless. So Jack Lew didn't say that the shutdown bought him more time? WAIT.. YOU KNOW MORE THAN JACK LEW! Shit, sorry man, I didn't realize!

To clarify here, this is not about the TREASURY doing a damn thing. No prioritizing or delayed payments. This is about reducing the demand for outlays below the level needed to avoid default. I would love to hear your made up reason why this is impossible. Or why it is a "technical default."

It certainly is political suicide and would be painful as hell shutting down that much of govt... but THAT isn't your claim. You have been steadfast (and wrong) in claiming IT WILL BE DEFAULT.
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:54 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
HAHAHA Nice attempt at again being a complete pussy and dodging the question. You can't be a man and admit you just got served here. Sad.

And no I don't have a cartoonish view of how the Treasury works you moron, I am putting it in simple terms here but please explain to all of your detailed knowledge of it and how it breaks my argument.

Let's break it down for you...

#1 Did the current govt shutdown reduce payments going out of the Treasury? [yes]

#2 Can the US expand the current shutdown without touching obligations such as debt service and Social Security? [Of Course]

#3 Would that be enough (obviously if done before the very last minute when we have a huge 1st of month payment) to cover obligated payments? [yes]

#4 Since you claim this is a "technical" default why is the current govt shutdown not a technical default? [....um.... YOU ArE DUMB! LET'S CHANGE THE SUBJECT!]

That's pretty much game set and match and if you were a man you'd admit it.
The Treasury does not have the money to continue to pay all of it's obligations after November 1st. It has not reduced, restructured, or delayed any payments that are currently due.

Despite our government being "shutdown" there are still people working for the government earning money and being paid. There are invoices and bills coming due for previous periods that are being paid. None of those obligations have been missed yet.

Having people work less so you owe them less wages right now does not constitute a technical default. The Treasury has no obligation to pay people for work they aren't doing (not a labor attorney so I could be technically wrong here). Regardless of that, the government has promised to pay those people for the time they've been off once the shutdown is lifted. So until the government has missed a payment for the wages they have said they will eventually pay them, it isn't a technical default.

I really don't understand why you're so dug in on your "points". You've taken a ridiculous stance and now feel the need to engage in ridiculous semantic games to justify your stance.

You haven't served anyone here and are just making yourself look like an ass to anyone that doesn't share your ridiculously stupid stance.
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Old 10-16-2013, 09:02 PM   #149
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heh some one is arguing that we're already in technical default (I'll wait for Nov 1st and no deal before I'd say that)

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmo...already-begun/

Quote:
The default has already begun
By Felix Salmon OCTOBER 14, 2013

The big question in Washington this week is whether, in the words of the NYT, we’re going to see “a legislative failure and an economic catastrophe that could ripple through financial markets, foreign capitals, corporate boardrooms, state budget offices and the bank accounts of everyday investors”. In this conception — and I have subscribed to it just as much as anybody else — the sequester is bad, the shutdown is worse, and the default associated with hitting the debt ceiling is so catastrophic as to be unthinkable.

This frame is a useful one, not least for the politicians in Washington, who seem to have become inured to the suffering caused by the shutdown, and downright blasť about the negative consequences of the sequester. Both of them could last more or less indefinitely were it not for the debt ceiling, which is helpfully providing a hard-and-fast deadline: Congress is going to have to come up with a deal before the ceiling is reached, because the alternative is, well, the zombie apocalypse.

There’s more than a little truth here: I’m a firm believer, for instance, that the president both can and should prioritize debt repayments in the event that the debt ceiling is reached. If we’re going to be so stupid as to hit the ceiling, then prioritizing debt service is the least-worst outcome. But at the same time, the situation is less binary than it looks, not least because the US government is already in default on its obligations.

The best way to look at this, I think, is that there’s a spectrum of default severities. At one end, you have the outright repudiation of sovereign debt, a la Ecuador in 2008; at the other end, you have the sequester, which involves telling a large number of government employees that the resources which were promised them will not, in fact, arrive. Both of them involve the government going back on its promises, but some promises are far more binding, and far more important, than others.

Right now, with the shutdown, we’ve already reached the point at which the government is breaking very important promises indeed: we promised to pay hundreds of thousands of government employees a certain amount on certain dates, in return for their honest work. We have broken that promise. Indeed, by Treasury’s own definition, it’s reasonable to say that we have already defaulted: surely, by any sensible conception, the salaries of government employees constitute “legal obligations of the US“.

Conversely, if you really do expect zombies to start roaming the streets the minute that the US misses a payment on its Treasury obligations, you’re likely to be disappointed. Yes, the stock market would fall. But the price of Treasury bonds would remain in the general vicinity of par, and it might even go up if Treasury announced that past-due interest would be paid on all debt at a statutory rate of 8% per annum. Even when it’s Treasury bonds themselves which are the instruments in default, Treasury bonds remain the world’s flight-to-quality trade, and the expected recovery on all defaulted Treasury obligations would be 100 cents on the dollar — or more.

The harm done to the global financial system by a Treasury debt default would not be caused by cash losses to bond investors. If you needed that interest payment, you could always just sell your Treasury bill instead, for an amount extremely close to the total principal and interest due. Rather, the harm done would be a function of the way in which the Treasury market is the risk-free vaseline which greases the entire financial system. If Treasury payments can’t be trusted entirely, then not only do all risk instruments need to be repriced, but so does the most basic counterparty risk of all. The US government, in one form or another, is a counterparty to every single financial player in the world. Its payments have to be certain, or else the whole house of cards risks collapsing — starting with the multi-trillion-dollar interest-rate derivatives market, and moving rapidly from there.

And here’s the problem: we’re already well past the point at which that certainty has been called into question. Fidelity, for instance, has no US debt coming due in October or early November, and neither does Reich & Tang:
While he doesn’t believe the U.S. will default, Tom Nelson, chief investment officer at Reich & Tang, which oversees $35 billion including $17 billion in money-market funds, said that the firm isn’t holding any U.S. securities that pay interest at the end of October through mid-November because if a default does take place, “we’d be criticized for stepping in front of that train.”
The vaseline, in other words, already has sand in it. The global faith in US institutions has already been undermined. The mechanism by which catastrophe would arise has already been set into motion. And as a result, economic growth in both the US and the rest of the world will be lower than it should be. Unemployment will be higher. Social unrest will be more destructive. These things aren’t as bad now as they would be if we actually got to a point of payment default. But even a payment default wouldn’t cause mass overnight failures: the catastrophe would be slower and nastier than that, less visible, less spectacular. We’re not talking the final scene of Fight Club, we’re talking more about another global credit crisis — where “credit” means “trust”, and “trust” means “trust in the US government as the one institution which cannot fail”.

While debt default is undoubtedly the worst of all possible worlds, then, the bonkers level of Washington dysfunction on display right now is nearly as bad. Every day that goes past is a day where trust and faith in the US government is evaporating — and once it has evaporated, it will never return. The Republicans in the House have already managed to inflict significant, lasting damage to the US and the global economy — even if they were to pass a completely clean bill tomorrow morning, which they won’t. The default has already started, and is already causing real harm. The only question is how much worse it’s going to get.
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Old 10-16-2013, 09:08 PM   #150
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
The Treasury does not have the money to continue to pay all of it's obligations after November 1st. It has not reduced, restructured, or delayed any payments that are currently due.
Agreed. (assuming no further cuts happen in time)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
Despite our government being "shutdown" there are still people working for the government earning money and being paid. There are invoices and bills coming due for previous periods that are being paid. None of those obligations have been missed yet.
Also true. Though I already stipulated that the shutdown would have to be extended NOW to avoid more bills being due on the 1st. we all agree that you can't just "shut down" on the 31st and expect to have money available magically on the 1st. But again these decision are all on the executive.

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Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
Having people work less so you owe them less wages right now does not constitute a technical default. The Treasury has no obligation to pay people for work they aren't doing (not a labor attorney so I could be technically wrong here). Regardless of that, the government has promised to pay those people for the time they've been off once the shutdown is lifted. So until the government has missed a payment for the wages they have said they will eventually pay them, it isn't a technical default.
True. But why is it a technical default if they just FIRE all of them thereby not having to pay them?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
I really don't understand why you're so dug in on your "points". You've taken a ridiculous stance and now feel the need to engage in ridiculous semantic games to justify your stance.

You haven't served anyone here and are just making yourself look like an ass to anyone that doesn't share your ridiculously stupid stance.
It isn't a question of semantics or an absurd argument. YOU made a ridiculous claim that it would be a technical default NO MATTER WHAT. That there was NO WAY to avoid a technical default. You have been proven to be dead wrong. It's fear mongering blanket crap like that that I aim to disprove.

Just admit it, you were wrong. Just like Cosmo (who also won't man up) won't admit he was wrong about the S&P downgrade causing a jump in interest rates.
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