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Old 10-16-2013, 12:58 PM  
Dave Lane Dave Lane is offline
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For those that think the House Republicans don';t own the shutdown here...

Explain this away for me...

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Old 10-18-2013, 12:08 PM   #16
Loneiguana Loneiguana is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FishingRod View Post
Loneiguana

So some people that don’t like the conclusions of the Harvard economists, disagree with their conclusions and the Harvard economists think that their argument is invalid. Sounds like a clear cut victory for spending more than you have.

What I think their argument shows is that when the economy slows the government spends a pot load of money causing a temporary spike in perceived and perhaps actual growth. After that has filtered through the economy the artificial spike has petered out and the economy seems to lag because its numbers are not being inflated. I think it is also pretty obvious that “what” the monies are spent on will determine if the end result is positive or negative in the long run. For example if one takes out a loan to buy a house, once that loan is paid back you should own a house and it is probably worth at least as much as you paid for it including interest. If you take all your friends on Vacation and run up a bill equivalent of buying a house, you may have some nice memories but nothing tangible to show for it.

You seem to be arguing that our current spending levels are fine and there is no need to address the issue. When two people can’t agree that there is even a problem, how can one get to the next logical step of what the solution might be. That being the case there really isn’t any more reason to continue this discussion with you than there is to start it anew with my cat.
What I am saying is the premise that debt drags an economy down is wrong.

A slow economy creates government debt, not government debt creating slow economy.

And I am going to have to ask you to research the study I posted a bit more. It is not that some people disagree with their methods, its that the authors of the study omitted information that did not align with what they wanted.

Take this for example: (from my first cite in the previous post)

Quote:
Reinhart-Rogoff use 1946-2009 as their period, with the main difference among countries being their starting year. In their data set, there are 110 years of data available for countries that have a debt/GDP over 90 percent, but they only use 96 of those years. The paper didn't disclose which years they excluded or why.

Herndon-Ash-Pollin find that they exclude Australia (1946-1950), New Zealand (1946-1949), and Canada (1946-1950). This has consequences, as these countries have high-debt and solid growth. Canada had debt-to-GDP over 90 percent during this period and 3 percent growth. New Zealand had a debt/GDP over 90 percent from 1946-1951. If you use the average growth rate across all those years it is 2.58 percent. If you only use the last year, as Reinhart-Rogoff does, it has a growth rate of -7.6 percent. That's a big difference, especially considering how they weigh the countries.
Then there are coding errors (excel errors):

Quote:
As Herndon-Ash-Pollin puts it: "A coding error in the RR working spreadsheet entirely excludes five countries, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, and Denmark, from the analysis. [Reinhart-Rogoff] averaged cells in lines 30 to 44 instead of lines 30 to 49...This spreadsheet error...is responsible for a -0.3 percentage-point error in RR's published average real GDP growth in the highest public debt/GDP category." Belgium, in particular, has 26 years with debt-to-GDP above 90 percent, with an average growth rate of 2.6 percent (though this is only counted as one total point due to the weighting above).

I don't think spending levels are fine. But a lot of what we spend money on doesn't do anything for America. I am fine with spending money on America for Americans to improve America.
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Last edited by Loneiguana; 10-18-2013 at 12:32 PM..
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Old 10-21-2013, 08:34 PM   #17
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GOP, Boehner take shutdown hit in new CNN poll

http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/21/politi...html?hpt=hp_t1

Washington (CNN) -- Just over half the public says that it's bad for the country that the GOP controls the House of Representatives, according to a new national poll conducted after the end of the partial government shutdown.

And the CNN/ORC International survey also indicates that more than six in 10 Americans say that Speaker of the House John Boehner should be replaced.

The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, just after the end of the 16-day partial federal government shutdown that was caused in part by a push by House conservatives to try and dismantle the health care law, which is President Barack Obama's signature domestic achievement.

According to the survey, 54% say it's a bad thing that the GOP controls the House, up 11 points from last December, soon after the 2012 elections when the Republicans kept control of the chamber. Only 38% say it's a good thing the GOP controls the House, a 13-point dive from the end of last year.

This is the first time since the Republicans won back control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections that a majority say their control of the chamber is bad for the country.
CNN Chief National Correspondent John King said there is time for Republicans to recover before the 2014 midterms.

"The midterm election is a year away. There's plenty of time for Republicans to work on the brand, but they've taken a bit of a beating here. They've got some work to do. They need a bit of a makeover," King said.

Majority want Boehner out

"We fought the good fight. We just didn't win," Boehner said at the end of the shutdown. And while he received a standing ovation at a closed gathering of House Republicans as the crisis came to a close, he may not see anything to applaud in the new poll.

"John Boehner fares just as badly as the GOP," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Sixty-three percent of all Americans think that Boehner should be replaced as Speaker of the House, a view shared by roughly half of all Republicans."

According to the poll, only 30% of the public says Boehner, who became Speaker in January 2011, should continue in that role.

Congress near historic lows

The survey indicates that the approval rating for Congress remains near an all-time low. Only 12% of those questioned say they approve of the job Congress is doing, just two points higher than the historic low in CNN polling. And 86% give federal lawmakers a thumbs-down, also near the all-time high.

Forty-four percent say they approve of the job the President is doing with 52% saying they disapprove.

Four things we learned from government shutdown

"Barack Obama's numbers are pretty anemic, but he remains in much better shape than the GOP," Holland said. "Even though Obama's approval rating remains stuck in the mid-40s, it didn't take a hit during the shutdown -- 44% just before the shutdown began; 44% now."

According to the survey, 44% also say they have more confidence in Obama rather than the GOP in Congress to deal with the major issues facing the country today, a 5-point drop from last year; 31% say they have more confidence in congressional Republicans, unchanged from last December.

Obama wants new approach after shutdown

"The biggest change on that question is the 21% who volunteer that they don't have confidence in either side -- a remarkably high number that is roughly double its usual level," Holland said.

Majority favor health care law or say it doesn't go far enough

Even though they lost this round, conservatives vow to continue their fight to dismantle Obamacare. And they point to major troubles with the rollout of the website where Americans without insurance can enroll in the new health care exchanges.

The president addressed the debacle at an event Monday at the White House, saying there was no way to sugarcoat the issues that applicants have experienced.

According to the poll, just more than four in 10 say they favor the law, with 56% opposed to it.

But of those opposed, 38% say they are against the law because they think it's too liberal and 12% say it's not liberal enough. That means that 53% either support Obamacare, or say it's not liberal enough.

The health care numbers are little changed from late last month, just before the start of the shutdown.

Congressional fight over Obamacare turns to website woes

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International, with 841 adults nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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