|10-30-2013, 03:00 PM||Topic Starter|
Black for Palestine
Join Date: Oct 2006
Casino cash: $1198897
Some reasons not to bet on the Chiefs...
Ugh. I LOVED the Bills in this spot. They were going to be my October NFL Pick of the Month - the game is in November, but I'm making this selection in October, so it counts - but there is a chance Lewis may sit out. Lewis missed Wednesday's practice, prompting Doug Marrone to tell the media that it could be anyone.
If Lewis starts, this will be my October NFL Pick of the Month. Let's pretend for a second that Lewis returns to practice Thursday and is ready to go. Here's why I love Buffalo:
1. Let's first dispel the notion that betting against an undefeated team playing an opponent with a losing record is a poor proposition. Undefeated road favorites battling a team worse than .500 as a road in Week 9 or later are just 8-10 against the spread since 1990. The two most recent losses: the Falcons went down to the Saints last year, while the dominant Packers were upset at Kyle Orton-led Kansas City in Week 15 of 2011.
This is not enough itself to fade the Chiefs, but it just goes to show that Kansas City shouldn't be considered an automatic lock or anything.
2. Speaking of incorrect perception, the public is betting Kansas City pretty heavily, yet this spread dropped from -3.5 to -3. This indicates sharp money on the Bills. Average bettors are looking at this spread and saying, "Hurr durr, how can the Chiefs not beat the Bills?" It just looks so easy.
While the majority of the public might think this spread is too low, I think it's pretty high. I have this as Buffalo -1. Think about it this way: Chiefs -3 at Bills would be Chiefs -9 at Kansas City. Yet, the Chiefs were just -7.5 over the Browns, who were perceived to be absolutely dreadful with Jason Campbell at quarterback. Why would Cleveland be 1.5 points better than Buffalo? If the Browns have functional quarterback play, as they did with Campbell, they're about the same as the Bills.
3. Mentioning Campbell brings me to my next point: The Chiefs didn't cover the spread against Campbell or Case Keenum the past two weeks; they beat both third-string quarterbacks by a combined seven points - AT HOME! Had DeAndre Hopkins not dropped a touchdown two weeks ago, and had Davone Bess not single-handedly destroyed Cleveland's chances of winning, the Chiefs may have lost both contests - AT HOME! If Kansas City couldn't put away Houston or Cleveland at Arrowhead, why would they suddenly have success on the road?
Going further back, the Raiders led for a good chunk of their matchup at Kansas City, but Terrelle Pryor self-destructed at the very end. Before that, the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Titans gave Kansas City some trouble. At least that was on the road.
4. This home-road dynamic is important because the Chiefs haven't played an away game since Oct. 6. What does this mean? Well, there is a trend that goes against Kansas City: Road favorites that are coming off three consecutive home games are just 12-26 against the spread since 1989. Trends are meaningless unless there's a good reason behind them, and that happens to be the case here. The Chiefs haven't traveled for a while. They've been sitting comfortably at home. Now, they have to pack their bags and go on the road when they haven't done that in nearly a month. They're just not used to it.
The Chiefs have grown accustom to their loud fans cheering them on, but they won't have that luxury in Buffalo. In fact, the Bills have called for a "White Out" at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills' fans will be going nuts, as they'll root for their squad to slay the lone unbeaten team in the NFL.
Oh, and the Bills are good at home too. They nearly beat the Patriots in the opener. They then knocked off the Panthers and Ravens, and then they almost defeated the Bengals in Lewis' first start.
5. The Bills aren't just good at home. They went on the road and beat the Dolphins two weeks ago. They also had a healthy lead at Cleveland before Jeff Tuel ruined that. Sure, they lost by 18 at New Orleans this past Sunday, but no one wins at the Superdome when the Saints are good. Besides, Buffalo did actually hang around despite the lopsided score.
Buffalo is better than its 3-5 record indicates, and this is a must-win for them. They're 1.5 games out of the second wild card spot, so they still have to believe that they have a chance. If they can beat the Chiefs, they'll be in good shape because they get the Steelers, Jets, Falcons, Buccaneers, Jaguars and Dolphins after that. All of those matchups are winnable. If they lose this game, however, their season is pretty much over.
6. Conversely, Kansas City isn't nearly as good as its 8-0 record indicates. The Chiefs are more like a 5-3 team. They're good, but they're not great. They've gotten very fortunate with their joke of a schedule. They haven't beaten a single opponent that currently has a winning record. I'll reiterate that their last four wins have come against Fitzpatrick, Pryor, Keenum and Campbell, and all of those games have been close.
Also, this game means very little to the Chiefs. The AFC West will be decided by their two games against the Broncos. A win here won't matter very much.
7. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Andy Reid is 5-9 against the spread going into a bye. He generally doesn't have his teams prepared well when there's a week off looming.
8. Here's another trend just for fun: Teams (applies to the Chiefs) that won but failed to cover in their previous two games struggle as road favorites. They're 9-21 ATS in those situations dating back to 1989.
Again, this is my October NFL Pick of the Month if Lewis plays. If Lewis sits out, I'm not betting on the Bills at all. Tuel has the personality of Ryan Leaf and the arm of Matt Cassel. He sucks. Check back later in the week for an update.