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Old 01-23-2014, 11:39 PM  
Taco John Taco John is offline
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Rand Paul Is the 2016 Republican Frontrunner

Don't laugh. He has built-in advantages in Iowa and New Hampshire, a party moving in his direction, and formidable fundraising potential.
  • All along, the theory behind Christie's candidacy was that he could overcome his lack of conservative bona fides with a combination of personality, competence, electability, and money. Bridgegate undermines all four.
  • So if Christie is no longer the candidate to beat in the 2016 Republican race, who is? Believe it or not, it’s Rand Paul.
  • Bush used the political network his father built, he enjoyed many of the benefits of someone who had run before. It’s the same with Paul. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, he begins with an unparalleled infrastructure left over from his father Ron Paul’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns.
  • “Rand has a much broader appeal than his father,” Robinson says. Polls reflect that: A survey last December for the Des Moines Register found Paul with a lower unfavorability rating among Iowa Republicans than either Christie or Jeb Bush.
  • If Paul is, arguably, the early leader in Iowa, he may be the early frontrunner in New Hampshire as well. While Ron Paul placed third in Iowa in 2012, he placed second in New Hampshire, losing only to Mitt Romney
  • “If you whited out his name, and looked at his numbers,” Scala says of Paul, “you’d think he was a strong mainstream candidate.”
  • Paul looks like a better bet than anyone else to finish in the top two in both Iowa and New Hampshire. If he did, he’d establish himself as the leading anti-establishment candidate in the GOP field.
  • Of course, the more early success Paul enjoyed, the more fervently some GOP elites—unnerved by his anti-interventionist foreign-policy views and potential weakness in a general election—would rally around someone else. Such efforts have worked in the past.
  • Paul will never be the darling of the GOP establishment. But Republican elites may have a difficult time in forging a unified front against him.
  • If there’s one thing that could obviate all this, it’s the possibility that Paul could suffer his own candidacy-crippling scandal.
  • But even taking that possibility into account, Paul is in a stronger position than many in the media recognize. On issues from NSA surveillance to drug legalization to gay marriage, the GOP is moving in his direction. For his part, Paul is gaining acceptance within the Republican mainstream.
  • There’s no way of knowing at this point, of course. But political commentators are making a big mistake if they disregard the chance.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...runner/283258/
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Old 01-24-2014, 12:23 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I doubt that. But then, you're probably using your own personal definition for those words so it's hard to say for sure.
It's just really funny reading that comment and seeing it was from you.
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Old 01-24-2014, 12:25 PM   #32
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I read the Jeb Bush wing are disappointed that he's not favored as it's supposed to be "his turn." Iirc, that branch doesn't care for Christie either.
I hope those 4 people are able to get over it and move on.
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Old 01-24-2014, 12:27 PM   #33
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Agreed, I wouldn't want him to run if he had to resign, but it sounds like he's going to try to keep his seat while also running for the nomination.

I don't think the GOP has much of a chance at all in 2016, but Rand Paul is one of the few guys who moves it from "almost no chance at all" to "slim"
Wow, we don't agree on that at all.
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Old 01-24-2014, 12:28 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
It's just really funny reading that comment and seeing it was from you.
I'm sure you find a lot of things funny. I use words the way they're supposed to be used.
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Old 01-24-2014, 12:30 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Wow, we don't agree on that at all.
Demographics. Its possible that a truly catastrophic candidate can buck the trend, but you can never predict something like that.

A lot of talk radio listeners who live in a bubble are going to be shocked in 2016, especially if Hillary wins. There will be a lot of people who think that Obama was just some magic candidate who people wanted to like and ignored the issues to vote for him, but ah-hah now he's termed out and Hillary is the nominee? Sweet, we got this, that old bat is going down.

Then they'll get swamped at the polls, look at the exits and see that once again the white vote ticked down another percentage or two, and uh-oh.
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Old 01-24-2014, 12:49 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Wow, we don't agree on that at all.
I"m with you. I don't see who the Democrats have this is so formidable.
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Old 01-24-2014, 12:49 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Demographics. Its possible that a truly catastrophic candidate can buck the trend, but you can never predict something like that.

A lot of talk radio listeners who live in a bubble are going to be shocked in 2016, especially if Hillary wins. There will be a lot of people who think that Obama was just some magic candidate who people wanted to like and ignored the issues to vote for him, but ah-hah now he's termed out and Hillary is the nominee? Sweet, we got this, that old bat is going down.

Then they'll get swamped at the polls, look at the exits and see that once again the white vote ticked down another percentage or two, and uh-oh.
Talk radio listeners aren't the only ones who live in a bubble.
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Old 01-24-2014, 01:52 PM   #38
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In 2012 election exit polls, a majority of Americans still blamed W more than Obama for the recession, 50-40% or something like that. I highly doubt they'll be ready to forgive any decade soon.
When have Republican voters ever given a shit about what moderates and liberals think?

If they were truly interested in winning elections, they would have a majority in the house and senate as well as the presidency right now.

Standard Republicans can shit on Ron Paul voters/libertarians all they want for not doing their part when it comes down to crunch time, but they fail to realize that they're just as terrible about voting uncompromisingly on their minority principles.

I don't like this guy either, but Jon Huntsman was the most qualified and the most easily digestible Republican of the field in 2012. Republicans would have voted for him because they hate Obama that goddamn much, and he would have taken a significant portion more of then moderate votes and the weirdo Kotters. I think he was their best chance for victory, and the primary voters acted like he was some sort of communist.

Republicans are also boring as shit. They're perfectly comfortable going with the old familiar war horse over any kind of fresh new blood.

Probably the only familiar candidate they'll see up there in the primaries is Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, and maybe someone like Newt. The rest of them will be unfamiliar and a little scary. Guess who they'll go with.

Jeb Bush. He's an old comfortable boot to them. They love that shit.
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Old 01-24-2014, 02:06 PM   #39
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I"m with you. I don't see who the Democrats have this is so formidable.
Its not really the case that the country is split down the middle, willing to give both sides a fair hearing, and makes up their mind based on the issues, debates, etc. In 2016, the Democrat isn't going to need to do much other than avoid huge mistakes.

We used to be tilted to the right where a Democrat could win, but the default state of the race before candidates were picked was that the Republicans had a big advantage. Clinton had to win some southern states and get some 3rd party help to get to his slim plurality. Then we really were more or less 50/50 for a while when Bush and Gore fought it out..

Its hasn't been that way since W was in office. By the time we get to 2016, it'll be the reverse of what it was like when Reagan won: A Republican could win, but the default state of the race before candidates are picked is that the Democrat is going to have a big advantage, because there are now a whole lot of people who would blindly vote for a turnip over any Republican.
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Old 01-24-2014, 03:11 PM   #40
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Rand Paul wouldn't win the general election yet he's been the leader against fighting against things like the NSA, war in Syria, drug law reform. The only thing you could argue he hasn't won was Obamacare.
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Old 01-24-2014, 03:14 PM   #41
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Rand Paul wouldn't win the general election yet he's been the leader against fighting against things like the NSA, war in Syria, drug law reform. The only thing you could argue he hasn't won was Obamacare.
If he took a less aggressive stance on the ME and war, you don't think he couldn't win?

I don't try to predict election results. No one really knows what will happen between then and now.
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Old 01-24-2014, 06:10 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Its not really the case that the country is split down the middle, willing to give both sides a fair hearing, and makes up their mind based on the issues, debates, etc. In 2016, the Democrat isn't going to need to do much other than avoid huge mistakes.

We used to be tilted to the right where a Democrat could win, but the default state of the race before candidates were picked was that the Republicans had a big advantage. Clinton had to win some southern states and get some 3rd party help to get to his slim plurality. Then we really were more or less 50/50 for a while when Bush and Gore fought it out..

Its hasn't been that way since W was in office. By the time we get to 2016, it'll be the reverse of what it was like when Reagan won: A Republican could win, but the default state of the race before candidates are picked is that the Democrat is going to have a big advantage, because there are now a whole lot of people who would blindly vote for a turnip over any Republican.
I think you'll find that turnout is going to be a big problem for the Democrats in 2016. I could be wrong, but the way I see it, they're going to have to worry about their own left.
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Old 01-24-2014, 06:17 PM   #43
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I think you'll find that turnout is going to be a big problem for the Democrats in 2016. I could be wrong, but the way I see it, they're going to have to worry about their own left.
Yeah, if I had to play devil's advocate against myself and come up with a reason why I might be dead wrong about 2016, I'd probably talk about turnout.

If we knew for sure that the Dem turnout will be the same roughly as 2012, then the GOP is just completely dead in the water. But we already know that Dems are far less reliable on off-year elections, and maybe Obama really was the magic candidate whose absence will make some left-wingers more apathetic about voting.
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Old 01-24-2014, 06:19 PM   #44
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When have Republican voters ever given a shit about what moderates and liberals think?

If they were truly interested in winning elections, they would have a majority in the house and senate as well as the presidency right now.

Standard Republicans can shit on Ron Paul voters/libertarians all they want for not doing their part when it comes down to crunch time, but they fail to realize that they're just as terrible about voting uncompromisingly on their minority principles.

I don't like this guy either, but Jon Huntsman was the most qualified and the most easily digestible Republican of the field in 2012. Republicans would have voted for him because they hate Obama that goddamn much, and he would have taken a significant portion more of then moderate votes and the weirdo Kotters. I think he was their best chance for victory, and the primary voters acted like he was some sort of communist.

Republicans are also boring as shit. They're perfectly comfortable going with the old familiar war horse over any kind of fresh new blood.

Probably the only familiar candidate they'll see up there in the primaries is Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, and maybe someone like Newt. The rest of them will be unfamiliar and a little scary. Guess who they'll go with.

Jeb Bush. He's an old comfortable boot to them. They love that shit.
I have to admit after you bringing Huntman up and looking at some of his positions he could get my vote and be electable. The more the teaparty has any place in the republican party the deeper with be the margin of electoral loss.
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Old 01-24-2014, 06:33 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Demographics. Its possible that a truly catastrophic candidate can buck the trend, but you can never predict something like that.

A lot of talk radio listeners who live in a bubble are going to be shocked in 2016, especially if Hillary wins. There will be a lot of people who think that Obama was just some magic candidate who people wanted to like and ignored the issues to vote for him, but ah-hah now he's termed out and Hillary is the nominee? Sweet, we got this, that old bat is going down.

Then they'll get swamped at the polls, look at the exits and see that once again the white vote ticked down another percentage or two, and uh-oh.

A rather large difference or two.

Hillary is a semi unattractive old white woman.
Barak was a very handsome young black man.
Black people voted for Barak at levels they have never voted before and fell off a bit in the second election.
Why do you think young and old highly unemployed colored people will storm the polls to vote for an old hag like Hillary? Hillary can't run on Obamas coattails, she must distance herself from his total failure with his base. To do that will offend the black folk who won't really care anyway.
Hillary can't get to far from ObamaCare with Hillary Care around her neck.
People who actually give a **** won't support her with her track record as SecState.


That said, the R's could **** up and pick a bad opponent. But anyone who sees Hillary as a shoe in is ignorant beyond belief. The old white girl won't get inner city folk all fired up. The days of the Magic Negro are over.
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