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Old 01-24-2014, 12:39 AM  
Taco John Taco John is offline
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Rand Paul Is the 2016 Republican Frontrunner

Don't laugh. He has built-in advantages in Iowa and New Hampshire, a party moving in his direction, and formidable fundraising potential.
  • All along, the theory behind Christie's candidacy was that he could overcome his lack of conservative bona fides with a combination of personality, competence, electability, and money. Bridgegate undermines all four.
  • So if Christie is no longer the candidate to beat in the 2016 Republican race, who is? Believe it or not, it’s Rand Paul.
  • Bush used the political network his father built, he enjoyed many of the benefits of someone who had run before. It’s the same with Paul. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, he begins with an unparalleled infrastructure left over from his father Ron Paul’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns.
  • “Rand has a much broader appeal than his father,” Robinson says. Polls reflect that: A survey last December for the Des Moines Register found Paul with a lower unfavorability rating among Iowa Republicans than either Christie or Jeb Bush.
  • If Paul is, arguably, the early leader in Iowa, he may be the early frontrunner in New Hampshire as well. While Ron Paul placed third in Iowa in 2012, he placed second in New Hampshire, losing only to Mitt Romney
  • “If you whited out his name, and looked at his numbers,” Scala says of Paul, “you’d think he was a strong mainstream candidate.”
  • Paul looks like a better bet than anyone else to finish in the top two in both Iowa and New Hampshire. If he did, he’d establish himself as the leading anti-establishment candidate in the GOP field.
  • Of course, the more early success Paul enjoyed, the more fervently some GOP elites—unnerved by his anti-interventionist foreign-policy views and potential weakness in a general election—would rally around someone else. Such efforts have worked in the past.
  • Paul will never be the darling of the GOP establishment. But Republican elites may have a difficult time in forging a unified front against him.
  • If there’s one thing that could obviate all this, it’s the possibility that Paul could suffer his own candidacy-crippling scandal.
  • But even taking that possibility into account, Paul is in a stronger position than many in the media recognize. On issues from NSA surveillance to drug legalization to gay marriage, the GOP is moving in his direction. For his part, Paul is gaining acceptance within the Republican mainstream.
  • There’s no way of knowing at this point, of course. But political commentators are making a big mistake if they disregard the chance.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...runner/283258/
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Old 01-24-2014, 10:51 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Yeah, if I had to play devil's advocate against myself and come up with a reason why I might be dead wrong about 2016, I'd probably talk about turnout.

If we knew for sure that the Dem turnout will be the same roughly as 2012, then the GOP is just completely dead in the water. But we already know that Dems are far less reliable on off-year elections, and maybe Obama really was the magic candidate whose absence will make some left-wingers more apathetic about voting.
I don't know man... I read a ton of news, and there has been precious little good news for the Democrats. You're a pretty lonely voice talking about momentum for Democrats in 2016. Here's another article from the Atlantic today talking about how the Republicans are winning:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...change/283312/

I don't see where your narrative is coming from. Not that I completely doubt you. You're one of the few voices on this forum I pay any attention to. But I'm not seeing it right now.
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Old 01-24-2014, 10:59 PM   #47
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I think you'll find that turnout is going to be a big problem for the Democrats in 2016. I could be wrong, but the way I see it, they're going to have to worry about their own left.
The very far left is disappointed in Obama--for the wrong reasons imo. I mean even Fox had Ed Asner on, who is honest about being a socialist and he's disappointed as he considers Obama a corporatist. Those guys are Obama's base.
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Old 01-25-2014, 12:14 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
I don't know man... I read a ton of news, and there has been precious little good news for the Democrats. You're a pretty lonely voice talking about momentum for Democrats in 2016. Here's another article from the Atlantic today talking about how the Republicans are winning:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...change/283312/

I don't see where your narrative is coming from. Not that I completely doubt you. You're one of the few voices on this forum I pay any attention to. But I'm not seeing it right now.
Its easy to write editorials, talk about anecdotes, and take a few polls. There's an awful lot of cheerleading on the right, thats for sure. But the Demographics are quite clear: Mitt Romney won the independents and the Republican turnout was great, but he lost the election because there were simply too many Democrats. Obama lost the over-45 vote in 2008 which would have been completely fatal in prior elections, but he wiped out McCain because the younger voters are actually voting, unlike the young slackers of Gen X a decade or 2 ago, and this new millennial generation is the largest in history, bigger than the Boomers.

Right now, the election outcome is a simple flowchart. 1) If the Dem base turns out, the Dems win, period. 2) If the Dem base does not turn out, and the GOP base does, the GOP probably wins, but they can't win if both turn out because their base is smaller than the Dems. 3) If neither side is turning out, then the independents start to matter a lot more. It wasn't always this way, back to Reagan's first term and before there were a ton of independents, people weren't very political and the electorate was very swingy. Now people have lined up and taken sides and there's not much swing anymore, its just a turnout game.

The GOP is losing demographically because GOP voters are getting old and dying, and the new generation is far more minority and progressive than in the past. Here's one article that does a pretty good job of talking about the Demographics: 2012 or Never (you do have to wade through some liberal spin, ignore that part, only demographics matter)

Here's another fact that starkly spells out what is happening: if the Demographics in 1988 had looked the same as it did in 2008, forget about how the people voted in 2008, just take how the groups voted in 1988 and adjust the group sizes, then Dukakis would have won.

By the time we get to 2020, Texas may be a battleground state with that rapidly-growing Hispanic population. The bottom is eventually going to fall out over there, and then its over until the GOP inevitably lurches to the left to compete again.
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Last edited by alnorth; 01-25-2014 at 12:34 AM..
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Old 01-25-2014, 11:14 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Its easy to write editorials, talk about anecdotes, and take a few polls. There's an awful lot of cheerleading on the right, thats for sure. But the Demographics are quite clear: Mitt Romney won the independents and the Republican turnout was great, but he lost the election because there were simply too many Democrats. Obama lost the over-45 vote in 2008 which would have been completely fatal in prior elections, but he wiped out McCain because the younger voters are actually voting, unlike the young slackers of Gen X a decade or 2 ago, and this new millennial generation is the largest in history, bigger than the Boomers.

Right now, the election outcome is a simple flowchart. 1) If the Dem base turns out, the Dems win, period. 2) If the Dem base does not turn out, and the GOP base does, the GOP probably wins, but they can't win if both turn out because their base is smaller than the Dems. 3) If neither side is turning out, then the independents start to matter a lot more. It wasn't always this way, back to Reagan's first term and before there were a ton of independents, people weren't very political and the electorate was very swingy. Now people have lined up and taken sides and there's not much swing anymore, its just a turnout game.

The GOP is losing demographically because GOP voters are getting old and dying, and the new generation is far more minority and progressive than in the past. Here's one article that does a pretty good job of talking about the Demographics: 2012 or Never (you do have to wade through some liberal spin, ignore that part, only demographics matter)

Here's another fact that starkly spells out what is happening: if the Demographics in 1988 had looked the same as it did in 2008, forget about how the people voted in 2008, just take how the groups voted in 1988 and adjust the group sizes, then Dukakis would have won.

By the time we get to 2020, Texas may be a battleground state with that rapidly-growing Hispanic population. The bottom is eventually going to fall out over there, and then its over until the GOP inevitably lurches to the left to compete again.
Romney won among independents. He would have destroyed the independent vote and won over moderate leaning democrats if the Republicans would have let Romney be Romney. Do you realize how much of a swing vote a moderate Republican with less conservative views on gay rights and abortion would pick up?
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Old 01-25-2014, 11:16 AM   #50
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In other words, provide no different alternative to Obama. Socialist 1 versus Socialist 2.
An election from the world of Dr. Seuss.
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Old 01-25-2014, 11:22 AM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Its easy to write editorials, talk about anecdotes, and take a few polls. There's an awful lot of cheerleading on the right, thats for sure. But the Demographics are quite clear: Mitt Romney won the independents and the Republican turnout was great, but he lost the election because there were simply too many Democrats. Obama lost the over-45 vote in 2008 which would have been completely fatal in prior elections, but he wiped out McCain because the younger voters are actually voting, unlike the young slackers of Gen X a decade or 2 ago, and this new millennial generation is the largest in history, bigger than the Boomers.

Right now, the election outcome is a simple flowchart. 1) If the Dem base turns out, the Dems win, period. 2) If the Dem base does not turn out, and the GOP base does, the GOP probably wins, but they can't win if both turn out because their base is smaller than the Dems. 3) If neither side is turning out, then the independents start to matter a lot more. It wasn't always this way, back to Reagan's first term and before there were a ton of independents, people weren't very political and the electorate was very swingy. Now people have lined up and taken sides and there's not much swing anymore, its just a turnout game.

The GOP is losing demographically because GOP voters are getting old and dying, and the new generation is far more minority and progressive than in the past. Here's one article that does a pretty good job of talking about the Demographics: 2012 or Never (you do have to wade through some liberal spin, ignore that part, only demographics matter)

Here's another fact that starkly spells out what is happening: if the Demographics in 1988 had looked the same as it did in 2008, forget about how the people voted in 2008, just take how the groups voted in 1988 and adjust the group sizes, then Dukakis would have won.

By the time we get to 2020, Texas may be a battleground state with that rapidly-growing Hispanic population. The bottom is eventually going to fall out over there, and then its over until the GOP inevitably lurches to the left to compete again.
That seems to be a rather difficult pill for many in the GOP to swallow (or they choose to ignore it): if the nominee can't win against the DNC nominee, it's all rather moot.
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Old 01-25-2014, 11:30 AM   #52
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That seems to be a rather difficult pill for many in the GOP to swallow (or they choose to ignore it): if the nominee can't win against the DNC nominee, it's all rather moot.
In Romney, they picked a guy who was well equipped to win the general election. And they forced him to be a lot of things the general public hated.

Romney was forced to take a stance on birth control, abortion, and gay rights, three issues he seemed like he wanted to stay out of. It was the GOP that decided to tone down Ann Romney, who could have really helped the female vote. It was the GOP that stupidly opened their mouth about the issue of rape and abortion. On the female vote alone, Romney could have gone from wildly unpopular to just unpopular which would have been a pretty big swing. Same with the gay vote.

The GOP has a brand problem. And until they fix it, nobody's going to win. A GOP candidate can shout all day along about a moderate position on women's rights, then have that all disappear by one idiot at the GOP convention who says something stupid.
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Old 01-25-2014, 11:33 AM   #53
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Until the GOP abandons its social issues that cling and connect only with the old and religious, its days of winning a presidential election are over. Al is correct, 45% of the populace would vote for a turnip over the best GOP candidate out there. If the turnip could speak then its over for the GOP.
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Old 01-25-2014, 11:38 AM   #54
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Until the GOP abandons its social issues that cling and connect only with the old and religious, its days of winning a presidential election are over. Al is correct, 45% of the populace would vote for a turnip over the best GOP candidate out there. If the turnip could speak then its over for the GOP.
I honestly think that's the only appeal about Christie. Because he isn't as establishment on moral issues.

That's sad. Because it's obvious, that's all it really takes. And so they prop up a flawed candidate when you might have a guy with a better head on his shoulders who had a similarly moderate view on moral issues.
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Old 02-26-2014, 11:26 AM   #55
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A new article today in the National Journal about Rand being the Republican Front Runner:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/again...unner-20140225
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Old 02-26-2014, 11:27 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
Until the GOP abandons its social issues that cling and connect only with the old and religious, its days of winning a presidential election are over. Al is correct, 45% of the populace would vote for a turnip over the best GOP candidate out there. If the turnip could speak then its over for the GOP.
And a turnip has about as much sense as the 45% IMHO
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Old 02-26-2014, 11:30 AM   #57
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I honestly think that's the only appeal about Christie. Because he isn't as establishment on moral issues.

That's sad. Because it's obvious, that's all it really takes. And so they prop up a flawed candidate when you might have a guy with a better head on his shoulders who had a similarly moderate view on moral issues.
Christie is pro-life and against gay marriage. He's a Catholic.
He believes in claims by GW folks.
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Old 02-26-2014, 11:33 AM   #58
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The GOP has a brand problem. And until they fix it, nobody's going to win. A GOP candidate can shout all day along about a moderate position on women's rights, then have that all disappear by one idiot at the GOP convention who says something stupid.
Saw a news report last week that Rand has already said the GOP needs to adopt some libertarian ideas to survive. And he's not a libertarian either. In his own words.

I think there would be less contention on social issues if we followed the Constitution and had candidates say they are state issues--not federal. These things just get magnified at a national level because different regions, and areas have different values. It doesn't work. I wish a presidential candidate would say it has little to do with the powers of the presidency.
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Old 02-26-2014, 12:29 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
Until the GOP abandons its social issues that cling and connect only with the old and religious, its days of winning a presidential election are over. Al is correct, 45% of the populace would vote for a turnip over the best GOP candidate out there. If the turnip could speak then its over for the GOP.
You'll grow up and be old some day and it's a reach, but you might even get enlightened too. I'm fine with the GOP going more libertarian socially except they should continue to strive for the civil rights of persons residing in a womb.
I'm even becoming libertarian on the drug issue that I despise. I figure that legalization would hit the career politicians in the pocket book since it appears so many profit from it. Maybe then we could actually secure the border since the profit from keeping the border open would dry up.
It's really easy to see who has they're hand in that cookie jar. They're the ones saying the border is secure and there's no need to do anything.
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Old 02-26-2014, 12:37 PM   #60
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All the GOP needs to do is offer free stuff. Cell phones, Internet, Marijuana, ebt, student loan forgiveness, open bar at gay wedding receptions, etc. Then just reneg once elected and when the economy booms and the professional loafers find the rewards of a job, they'll forget about the 8 years of envy programming they had.
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ActiveShooter has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ActiveShooter has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ActiveShooter has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ActiveShooter has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ActiveShooter has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ActiveShooter has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ActiveShooter has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ActiveShooter has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ActiveShooter has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ActiveShooter has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ActiveShooter has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.
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