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Old 05-17-2014, 06:48 AM  
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The inconvenient truth about climate change and Obama’s policies

By Peter MoriciPublished May 16, 2014FoxNews.com

The inconvenient truth President Obama denies about climate change is that China’s refusal to cooperate in international efforts to address the problem makes U.S. efforts to slow its pace futile. Moreover, his policies severely handicap America’s ability to mitigate its consequences.

The global climate has gone through profound cycles of cooling and warming since long before humans walked the Earth. While public figures and some scientists may disagree, the majority of researchers have concluded that human activities – in particular, greenhouse gas emissions – are now a significant cause of global warming, and they are urging concerted international action.

Carbon dioxide composes 80 percent of harmful emissions. Having failed to win congressional approval for a system of permits to reduce emissions, the president has unilaterally targeted coal-fired electric utilities and fuel used in transportation to reduce U.S. emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels.

Those actions are unnecessary and harmful.

The global climate has gone through profound cycles of cooling and warming since long before humans walked the Earth.
In recent years, more abundant and cheaper natural gas has motivated electric utilities to switch from coal, and energy intensive manufacturers in metals, chemicals and the like have made remarkable, cost-saving progress to reduce energy use.

Responding to consumer preferences, automakers were making more fuel-efficient vehicles before the president imposed more stringent mileage standards. The high cost and stress of commuting are encouraging many young people to live closer to their jobs. Competition from rail is pressuring trucking companies to purchase more fuel-efficient rigs.

Together, those free-market decisions have reduced CO2 emissions by more than 9 percent from 2005 levels.

Now the EPA and other federal agencies want to micro-manage those choices by imposing inflexible standards on electric utilities and other manufacturers. Progressives would happily force as many Americans as they can onto mass transit, imposing a terrible drain on state transportation and local government operating budgets.

Those initiatives would not do much to arrest global warming, but by increasing taxes and production costs, they would send more jobs to China.

With an economy about half the size, China already emits almost twice as much CO2 as either the United States or Europe. Every 18 months, its emissions grow enough to replace the emissions savings the United States will accomplish by hitting the president’s 15-year target.

Other developing countries, like India, are similarly adding to the problem; however, China accounts for about 85 percent of the annual increase in global CO2 emissions.

When jobs are outsourced to China, global emissions go up, because China uses energy less efficiently and relies more heavily on coal than the United States, and the growth of manufacturing encourages migration to cities where folks use more electricity and automotive fuel.

Simply, without China’s cooperation, U.S. efforts are futile.

Progressives propose to bring China and other nations along through diplomacy, but despite considerable effort, the president has not been able to obtain Beijing’s cooperation on climate change, its undervalued currency, or just about anything else that would constrain the Middle Kingdom’s growth.

Put bluntly, if man-made emissions are the culprit, then by China’s actions alone global warming is going to happen with the force and fury many fear. The United States can do little to stop it, and efforts to do so will only reduce U.S. resources available to mitigate its consequences.

U.S. economic growth has fallen from 3.4 percent during the Reagan-Clinton years to 1.7 percent since the beginning of this century. This slowdown was caused by U.S currency and trade policies toward China that disadvantage U.S. manufacturers, restrictions on offshore oil and gas development that keep America dependent on imports, and costly and ineffective regulations on banking, health care and other industries.

Millions of Americans are without decent jobs, and governments at all levels are severely challenged. Those will get worse if the nation continues on its current path.

Rising temperatures will confront federal and state agencies with unparalleled challenges, as droughts dislocate cattle ranchers in the Southwest, insects threaten forests, arable regions shift north, rising seas flood coastal cities and new diseases attack humans, plants and animals.

Moving populations and economic activities will cost trillions of dollars, and an economy impoverished by mindless micro-management from Washington simply won’t be able to generate the tax dollars to foot the bill.

Americans will be forced to abandon farms and cities – simply, fend for themselves – as Washington will not be able to sustain the essential elements of civilization.


Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/...cmp=latestnews
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Old 05-17-2014, 09:25 PM   #31
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Business: Nuclear plants are safe.
Person: But what about Fukushima? What about what they found at San Onofre?
Business: Those were old plants. New plants haven't had any disasters.
Person: But aren't new plants run by the same companies who let the old plants slip into disaster risk?
Libertarian: STOP BEING HYSTERICAL!
Actually, it would be.

Libertarians: Mining including mining rare earth metals kills more than the amount of people that Chernobyl did every year. The reason why power companies are running outdated reactors is that to build new ones or even new power plants is such a heavy capital investment in money and time due to government regulations and nuisance lawsuits that even if they wanted to it does not make economical sense to do so.

Quote:
Business: Offshore drilling is safe...
etc.
Libertarian: Actually, business wouldn't say that. If an oil and gas company could they would not drill offshore. It is an enormous investment and heavy risk. It is so enormous that no company goes at it alone, offshore drilling rigs are financed by many companies to spread the risk.

Quote:
Yep - so no problem with a whorehouse, airport or garlic factory going up in the lot adjacent to your house? Do communities have any right to set zoning ordinances in libertopia?
I may have a problem but it isn't my right to use the violence of government to force them to not do so. As for your second question, only if they have a contract with the property owner. Otherwise, they should have no say what one does with their private property.


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That's nice of you to allow me to sue the electric company if they kill me or destroy my land from radiation poisoning. I'm sure the bankruptcy court will give me my share of the negative net worth the company has left. Punishment after the fact is clearly superior to prevention in this case. We all know the individuals who run companies always choose the safe less profitable path over the risky more profitable one.
Part of that is the perverse incentive of liability caps instituted by our government. In libertopia there would be no such thing. Its not the government that the power companies would be responsible too, it would be the company the insures the power plant. You better believe that the insurance company will be more stringent then the government. It is their money on the line after all.

[qoute]
So the courts basically just replace the government as the source of power in libertopia. What could go wrong?[/quote]

Its not like the government has a stellar record doing well anything. Also, with a civil court system the parties being harmed actually get paid. In the regulatory system we have now, the government gets paid and tells those who actually got harmed to get stuffed.
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Old 05-17-2014, 09:42 PM   #32
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I love nuclear power. I encourage its use over coal for sure. But let's not forget that Chernobyl resulted in a 1000+ sq mi deadly inhabitable zone for the next 10,000 years or so.

Nuclear requires lots of long term commitment. And failure could result in a Chernobyl-like dead zone or worse. I think we could safely do it much more than we currently do, but I understand the fear others have. I think one day we'll have the technology to make it safe enough for mass use.
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Old 05-17-2014, 09:50 PM   #33
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Futile? That's just nonsense.
If China continues to increase their emissions at a greater rate than our reductions, why is it nonsense? I thought we had an imminent catastrophe on our hands.
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Old 05-17-2014, 09:50 PM   #34
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I love nuclear power. I encourage its use over coal for sure. But let's not forget that Chernobyl resulted in a 1000+ sq mi deadly inhabitable zone for the next 10,000 years or so.

Nuclear requires lots of long term commitment. And failure could result in a Chernobyl-like dead zone or worse. I think we could safely do it much more than we currently do, but I understand the fear others have. I think one day we'll have the technology to make it safe enough for mass use.
Thorium reactors basically. Good thing about thorium as well is that the biggest deposits are in North America and Australia.
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Old 05-17-2014, 10:33 PM   #35
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If China continues to increase their emissions at a greater rate than our reductions, why is it nonsense? I thought we had an imminent catastrophe on our hands.
It's nonsense to say that if China does nothing, US efforts are futile. I'm not really sure how that needs an explanation. Any effort is better than no effort.
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Old 05-17-2014, 11:39 PM   #36
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It's nonsense to say that if China does nothing, US efforts are futile. I'm not really sure how that needs an explanation. Any effort is better than no effort.
I think you have that backwards. It's nonsense to say that any effort, no matter how futile, is better than no effort. You act like effort is cost free.
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Old 05-18-2014, 09:06 AM   #37
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I think you have that backwards. It's nonsense to say that any effort, no matter how futile, is better than no effort. You act like effort is cost free.
That would only be true if you ignored the mitigation costs that could result if we take no effort. You act like a lack of effort would be cost free. The last time we discussed this I provided you with IPCC data on mitigation costs comparing different scenarios. I can link that data again if you'd like to actually look at it.
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Old 05-18-2014, 09:33 AM   #38
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That would only be true if you ignored the mitigation costs that could result if we take no effort. You act like a lack of effort would be cost free. The last time we discussed this I provided you with IPCC data on mitigation costs comparing different scenarios. I can link that data again if you'd like to actually look at it.
Whatever those costs are, they still happen in this scenario. That's why the author used the word "futile".

And there's no reason to believe that data is reliable anyway. Those types of studies are only as good as the assumptions used to create them. They're not science, they're art.
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Old 05-18-2014, 09:54 AM   #39
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Whatever those costs are, they still happen in this scenario. That's why the author used the word "futile".

And there's no reason to believe that data is reliable anyway. Those types of studies are only as good as the assumptions used to create them. They're not science, they're art.
No, that's not true. There is a great deal we can do now, that will lower those future costs. The data I previously provided explains why ignoring action now could considerably raise the cost in the future. Taking action now could considerably lower the cost in the future. That inherent variability is why using the word "Futile" is nonsense.

No reason to believe the data? .... I know you don't really believe that.
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Old 05-18-2014, 10:09 AM   #40
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No, that's not true. There is a great deal we can do now, that will lower those future costs. The data I previously provided explains why ignoring action now could considerably raise the cost in the future. Taking action now could considerably lower the cost in the future. That inherent variability is why using the word "Futile" is nonsense.

No reason to believe the data? .... I know you don't really believe that.
We aren't segregated from the rest of the world. As long as developing countries like China and India continue to increase emissions faster than we reduce our own, whatever catastrophe you and your IPCC are predicting, to the extent that you're right about them, will continue to bear down on us. Meanwhile, we'll bear the costs. Futile.

Yes, there's no reason to believe your report.
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Old 05-18-2014, 10:48 AM   #41
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We aren't segregated from the rest of the world. As long as developing countries like China and India continue to increase emissions faster than we reduce our own, whatever catastrophe you and your IPCC are predicting, to the extent that you're right about them, will continue to bear down on us. Meanwhile, we'll bear the costs. Futile.

Yes, there's no reason to believe your report.
Our actions could lessen the resulting effects, regardless what anyone else does. There's no way to refute that. We're the second leading carbon emitter, so that will absolutely have an affect. You simply can't say that the #2 carbon emitting country in the world reducing emissions would be futile.

And let's not forget that both China and India have committed to reducing carbon emissions already. It's not exactly a given that they will continue to increase emissions. So let's not act like the US is guaranteed to be the only heavy polluter taking action.

China will continue to step up its efforts to address climate change in a bid to achieve the target of reducing CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 from the 2005 levels

India to reduce carbon intensity by 24% by 2020

Time will tell, but both countries acknowledge the problem and have committed to address it. If that happens, you and Marc Rubio and Fox and Friends might just run out of excuses.
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Old 05-18-2014, 11:25 AM   #42
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Our actions could lessen the resulting effects, regardless what anyone else does. There's no way to refute that. We're the second leading carbon emitter, so that will absolutely have an affect. You simply can't say that the #2 carbon emitting country in the world reducing emissions would be futile.

And let's not forget that both China and India have committed to reducing carbon emissions already. It's not exactly a given that they will continue to increase emissions. So let's not act like the US is guaranteed to be the only heavy polluter taking action.

China will continue to step up its efforts to address climate change in a bid to achieve the target of reducing CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 from the 2005 levels

India to reduce carbon intensity by 24% by 2020

Time will tell, but both countries acknowledge the problem and have committed to address it. If that happens, you and Marc Rubio and Fox and Friends might just run out of excuses.
No, it is a given. It's a given in the scenario that the author was calling efforts on our part futile. Maybe the Chinese will decide to rein themselves in or maybe we'll be able to convince them, but until that happens, at best we're just closing the screen door on our submarine.
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Old 05-18-2014, 03:00 PM   #43
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Don't worry. India and China will pay for their "Carbon Credits".
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Old 05-18-2014, 03:22 PM   #44
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What an odd opinion piece. The author does not deny climate change, but instead throws out bizarre reasoning for not addressing it. Without ever offering a better plan.



The government says reduce emissions, and that's unnecessary and harmful? But yet manufacturers have made remarkable, cost-saving progress reducing emissions? Which is is? Unnecessary and harmful or remarkable and cost-saving? Guess it depends on who's motivation it was.



WTF? Terrible drain on state transportation and local budgets? What kind of reasoning is that? Increased use does not equate to a drain on budgets. It's not some free service that local governments cannot budget or profit from.



No.



Futile? That's just nonsense.



I think it's an incredibly dangerous and irrational plan to say China won't help, it's gonna happen anyway, so let's not try and better the situation ourselves, let's just enjoy the climate-damaging profits and just prepare for addressing the consequences.

Seriously, is that the gist of the author's reasoning? We can't stop it, so why waste money on it if the other guys might not do the same? That is acknowledgement that climate change is happening, and preference is for short term profit over long term mitigation.



Because of terrible government policies that didn't benefit the US economy, we can't address saving our environment from potential climate change damage. That's nice. Our government sucks, so the environment will just have to accept whatever happens.



Again, acknowledging the possibilities of the effects, but noting that we can't do anything about it because hey our government has sucked ass for a few decades and times are hard.

China's involvement in addressing climate change is certainly a huge issue. But just throwing our hands up and saying "Fine, if they won't play then neither will we!" is not the solution. Not by a long shot. And that's the message I'm getting from this article.
I understand your not agreeing with Morici's opinions or forecasts but the point is they have just as much merit as the ones the global warming forecasters have. Especially his economic forecast for the implications of raising the cost of energy here at home.
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