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Old 04-23-2007, 08:40 AM  
Donger Donger is offline
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Gasoline at $4 Coming to a Pump Near You, Unfazed by Rising Tab

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=afOlUzd30YOo

Pretty alarmist, IMO, but possible.

Spoiler!

Last edited by Donger; 10-10-2014 at 01:43 PM..
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Old 01-09-2009, 09:04 PM   #1651
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigChiefDave View Post
Its gone up .50 here in the past 3 weeks.
It should have. Crude jumped almost 20%
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Old 01-09-2009, 09:08 PM   #1652
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Originally Posted by kcfanintitanhell View Post
Donger, does this make sense?

HOUSTON - All that money you're saving these days at the gas pump? You might want to put it in the bank.

The same cheap oil that's providing relief to drivers and businesses in an awful economy is setting the stage for another price spike, perhaps as soon as next year, that will bring back painful memories of last summer's $4-a-gallon gas.

The oil industry is scaling back on exploration and production because some projects don't make economic sense when energy prices are low. And crude is already harder to find because more nations that own oil companies are blocking outside access to their oil fields.
Story continues below ↓advertisement | your ad here

When the world emerges from the recession and starts to burn more fuel again, and higher demand meets lower supply, prices will almost certainly shoot higher.

Some analysts say oil could eventually eclipse $150 a barrel, maybe even on its way to $200. In such a scenario, gasoline would easily cost more than the record high of $4.11 a gallon set last summer. Oil trades at about $50 today.

No one knows for sure, but some analysts say the spike could happen as soon as next year, perhaps in 2011 or 2012.

"I think those supply limits will come back to bite with a vengeance," said Sean Brodrick, a natural resources analyst at Weiss Research Inc.

High prices at the pump last summer — more than $4 per gallon for gas on average — helped slash demand for oil. From November 2007 to October 2008, Americans drove 100 billion fewer miles than the year before, according to government figures. The nation's biggest automakers lurched toward bankruptcy as sales of sport utility vehicles and trucks plummeted.

"We wouldn't be bailing out the automobile industry today ... had we not had this crazy situation with oil prices," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consulting firm, and author of "The Prize," the Pulitzer Prize-winning history of the oil industry.

Oil giants like Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have yet to announce their 2009 capital spending plans, but analysts say even the cash-rich companies are likely to shelve some projects.

Already, Royal Dutch Shell has postponed a near-doubling of production in Canada's oil sands — an operation that analysts say only makes economic sense when oil is about $20 a barrel more expensive than it is now. Marathon Oil says it expects to cut capital spending by 15 percent in 2009.

Brodrick said canceled or postponed oil and gas projects could contribute to a drop of 7 percent or more in global oil production this year.

Smaller oil producers could cut spending by 30 percent, said Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit. The majority of U.S. crude and natural gas is supplied by smaller, independent companies, not the Exxons and Chevrons, and smaller producers have been forced to pull back because of frozen credit markets.

All this comes as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which controls about 40 percent of world crude supplies, embarks on its biggest single production cut ever.

It adds up to another round of price shocks for consumers that's probably inevitable, said Bruce Vincent, president of Houston-based Swift Energy Co., an independent producer.

"Demand will start growing, supply will start coming down, and you'll have that intersect again where prices will take off dramatically," Vincent said. "(But) it's not healthy for the economy. It's not healthy for the industry."

Already, the futures markets are pricing in more expensive oil. While a barrel of light, sweet crude for February delivery costs about $50, the market for September oil is already over $60.

Big Western oil companies like Exxon and ConocoPhillips have also been cut off from crude reserves under the control of nationalized oil companies from Saudi Arabia to Venezuela.

Economy in Turmoil
Despite actions, Fed sees downturn lasting
Federal Reserve officials feared the economy would be stuck in a painful rut for some time despite their decision to slash interest rates to a record low.
That cheap gasoline? Don’t get used to it
Alcoa to slash 13,500 jobs to save money
Pending home sales plunge to record low
Services sector contraction slows in Dec.
Late last year, the International Energy Agency said it will take more than a trillion dollars in annual investments to find new fossil fuels over the next two decades in order to avoid shortages that could choke the global economy.

When the world economy recovers from the current malaise, "Are we going to get another one of these violent cycles where prices overshoot and you get back in the same spiral?" asked Yergin. "Some volatility is inevitable in global commodity markets, but this kind of extreme volatility is bad for everyone. It creates deep wounds."

Another part of the problem, said Judy Dugan, research director for the nonprofit Consumer Watchdog, is that oil companies didn't invest enough in new exploration over the past several years, as they raked in billions in profits.

"They're screaming, 'Drill, baby, drill,' but they didn't invest anywhere near where they should have been investing when prices were high," she said. "Now that prices have crashed, they say prices are too low, knowing full well prices are going to go back up."
Yes, it absolutely makes sense. I think (I hope) I said so in this thread. If not, here goes: crude is too low right now. It should be around $60-$70/barrel. When it isn't, it is not profitable to E&P in areas that need it (and we need it) for future supply. All we are doing right now is having fun with low prices at the pump, because crude went too high, too fast.
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Old 01-10-2009, 09:27 PM   #1653
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I know the company I am working for is doing it's part to increase demand. I am driving a suburban all over the country. I drove it 10,000 miles between Thanksgiving and Christmas. I left out the Sunday after Christmas, and have driven 4,000 already. They should have me in a minivan. I was originally issued the Suburban because I was working in northern states, but now I am in the southeast, so I really don't need it. I do prefer driving the Suburban, but I am sure glad that I ain't buying the gas.
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Old 01-11-2009, 06:21 PM   #1654
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Anyone watching 60 minutes on the oil price increases from earlier this year?

They are saying it is total speculation and that the IEA reported that supply went up alot and demand actually went down so it was people speculating the price up.

On Sept 22 the price went up $22 in one day which was a record.

****ers.
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Old 01-11-2009, 06:23 PM   #1655
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Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan were 2 of the biggest companies speculating the price up yet we bail these mother ****ers out.
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Old 01-11-2009, 06:25 PM   #1656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Anyone watching 60 minutes on the oil price increases from earlier this year?

They are saying it is total speculation and that the IEA reported that supply went up alot and demand actually went down so it was people speculating the price up.

On Sept 22 the price went up $22 in one day which was a record.

****ers.
Yeah.. All should be taken to court and lose their asses off..
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Old 01-11-2009, 06:54 PM   #1657
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Gasoline should be around $2.00/gallon based on crude pricing right now. Crude dropped so quickly that retailers actually went too low with their pricing.

Price per barrel: $150.00
Prices at the pump: $4.00


Price of barrel drops to $50.00, the pump price should also drop by 66%. Am I missing something here?

If pump price "should" be around $2.00 then I would expect to see the barrel price at around $75.00.
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Old 01-11-2009, 07:07 PM   #1658
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hydrae View Post
Price per barrel: $150.00
Prices at the pump: $4.00


Price of barrel drops to $50.00, the pump price should also drop by 66%. Am I missing something here?

If pump price "should" be around $2.00 then I would expect to see the barrel price at around $75.00.
It just seems to me these fockheads arbitrarily raise the prices for a gallon of gas and have a bunch of spin doctors ready with an explanation.
Exxon Headquarters-"We have a problem...we decided to amp up the price 20 cents a gallon....can you get us something?"
"No problem. Just give us a minute to get the jar of excuses out and we'll pull one out."
"Ooo-kay guys. We got one that we haven't used in a long time. Remember the tse-tse fly epidemic in Nigeria that we used back in 1979? Well, let's go with that one again. None of these idiots will remember that one."
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Old 01-11-2009, 07:27 PM   #1659
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hydrae View Post
Price per barrel: $150.00
Prices at the pump: $4.00


Price of barrel drops to $50.00, the pump price should also drop by 66%. Am I missing something here?

If pump price "should" be around $2.00 then I would expect to see the barrel price at around $75.00.
Well, your numbers aren't precise. Crude was $147/barrel when the national retail average reached $4.17/gallon.

And, you can't do the type of mathematics that you are trying to do with retail gasoline prices. At least not with any accuracy. It's not exactly linear.
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Old 01-11-2009, 07:34 PM   #1660
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Big Oil/hedge funds>linear pricing
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Old 01-11-2009, 07:36 PM   #1661
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You are not very smart are you?
I guess sarcasm doesn't read well on the internet.
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Old 01-11-2009, 07:40 PM   #1662
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Well, your numbers aren't precise. Crude was $147/barrel when the national retail average reached $4.17/gallon.

And, you can't do the type of mathematics that you are trying to do with retail gasoline prices. At least not with any accuracy. It's not exactly linear.
I know the numbers are not precise, that is not what I was worried about. Also, as with any retail situation there are certain expenses that exist regardless of pricing so I agree it is not linear. However it should still be in the ball park when discussing generalities I would think.
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Old 01-11-2009, 08:18 PM   #1663
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Well, your numbers aren't precise. Crude was $147/barrel when the national retail average reached $4.17/gallon.

And, you can't do the type of mathematics that you are trying to do with retail gasoline prices. At least not with any accuracy. It's not exactly linear.
You see Donger, the only thing in a barrel of crude is gasoline after all.

repost.
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Old 01-15-2009, 12:23 AM   #1664
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Amazing. Oil prices climbed back to about $50 for a few days, followed by a 40 cent increase in gas prices. Oil then went right back down, now to $36, yet gas prices are still climbing, up 2 cents this week. Funny how that always works. A spike for a few days in oil prices always buys weeks of higher gas prices.
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Old 01-15-2009, 03:04 AM   #1665
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjchieffan View Post
Amazing. Oil prices climbed back to about $50 for a few days, followed by a 40 cent increase in gas prices. Oil then went right back down, now to $36, yet gas prices are still climbing, up 2 cents this week. Funny how that always works. A spike for a few days in oil prices always buys weeks of higher gas prices.
Yeah, that sucks. We all notice it but can't do shit about it.

I don't even care why they do it. I don't want to know. It will just piss me off.
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