Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Ed & Dave Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-20-2009, 12:06 PM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
RING****ER
 
RINGLEADER's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $5190
LOOKS LIKE IRAN IS CHOOSING TO TIANANMEN OPTION

Watching a lot of videos of Basijis opening fire and rounding people up in the cover of darkness.

Got a bad feeling a lot of Iranians are going to disappear tonight...
Posts: 22,952
RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 05:17 PM   #61
Frankie Frankie is offline
Banned
 
Frankie's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2001
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie View Post
Today:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fepZe...layer_embedded

Chants you hear:

"Toop, Tahnk, Basiji, deegar asar nadarad." = Guns, Tanks, Basijis, no longer have any effect.

Gooreh Khar (or something Khar!), sheer shodeh, Basiji (something) shodeh." = "Zebra" (or jack ass) has turned into a "lion", Basiji has been (can't make it out)!

"Marg bar Diktator" = Death to the Dictator

fwiw, fyi.
An explanation:

The phrase "Sheer shodeh," meaning "he has turned into a lion," is normally used as sarcasm describing a coward who acts brave behind some sure support or weapon.
Posts: 27,013
Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 05:18 PM   #62
Mr. Flopnuts Mr. Flopnuts is offline
The People's Mod
 
Mr. Flopnuts's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The Capital
Casino cash: $55284
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie View Post
An explanation:

The phrase "Sheer shodeh," meaning "he has turned into a lion," is normally used as sarcasm describing a coward who acts brave behind some sure support or weapon.
I have no doubt you have much more knowledge of what's going on inside Iran right now. Are the people still committed? I just don't know what they can really do. They have no weapons.
__________________
Grammar: The difference between knowing your shit, and knowing you're shit.
Posts: 44,215
Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 05:24 PM   #63
Frankie Frankie is offline
Banned
 
Frankie's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2001
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts View Post
I have no doubt you have much more knowledge of what's going on inside Iran right now. Are the people still committed? I just don't know what they can really do. They have no weapons.
You forget that the same people (actually their previous generation) beat back well armed Iraqis with "human waves" and chants of Allahu Akbar. I'm not saying that will happen, but if this thing goes on another week or so I wouldn't be surprised if some of the very "security" forces turn around to their side. Or maybe factions in the Army.
Posts: 27,013
Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.Frankie is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 05:26 PM   #64
mlyonsd mlyonsd is offline
Supporter
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Spink, SD
Casino cash: $5260
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie View Post
You forget that the same people (actually their previous generation) beat back well armed Iraqis with "human waves" and chants of Allahu Akbar. I'm not saying that will happen, but if this thing goes on another week or so I wouldn't be surprised if some of the very "security" forces turn around to their side. Or maybe factions in the Army.
That would be the only hope now it seems.
Posts: 24,962
mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 05:29 PM   #65
Hydrae Hydrae is offline
MVP
 
Hydrae's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Austin, Tx
Casino cash: $5180
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie View Post
Born and raised there.
Do you still have family there? If so, that has to be tough being here with this going on over there right now.
Posts: 10,355
Hydrae would the whole thing.Hydrae would the whole thing.Hydrae would the whole thing.Hydrae would the whole thing.Hydrae would the whole thing.Hydrae would the whole thing.Hydrae would the whole thing.Hydrae would the whole thing.Hydrae would the whole thing.Hydrae would the whole thing.Hydrae would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 05:29 PM   #66
crazycoffey crazycoffey is offline
Space for rent
 
crazycoffey's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2006
Casino cash: $5272
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie View Post
You forget that the same people (actually their previous generation) beat back well armed Iraqis with "human waves" and chants of Allahu Akbar. I'm not saying that will happen, but if this thing goes on another week or so I wouldn't be surprised if some of the very "security" forces turn around to their side. Or maybe factions in the Army.

I hope so, and I hope the turn about is a swift one too. And I also hope you don't take any offense to my previous posts, going into an urban war in Tehran would be worse than what Bagdad was like, IMO.
Posts: 24,075
crazycoffey is obviously part of the inner Circle.crazycoffey is obviously part of the inner Circle.crazycoffey is obviously part of the inner Circle.crazycoffey is obviously part of the inner Circle.crazycoffey is obviously part of the inner Circle.crazycoffey is obviously part of the inner Circle.crazycoffey is obviously part of the inner Circle.crazycoffey is obviously part of the inner Circle.crazycoffey is obviously part of the inner Circle.crazycoffey is obviously part of the inner Circle.crazycoffey is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 05:39 PM   #67
memyselfI memyselfI is offline
CHANGEd your mind yet????
 
memyselfI's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lunatics Anonymous
Casino cash: $5000
Frankie, my husband isn't concerned so much for his parents, as they will stay safe in their home outside of Tehran, but for his sisters. One of whom teaches at the University in Tehran and she has a son who is 16. His other sister's husband is young enough to be forced into service if this ends up being a civil war. I believe she also works part time at a university but not sure where. He's very worried for his nephews and young cousins.

What about your family?
__________________
Meet the new boss same as the old boss.

BigChiefDave:"Anyone who thought we would only be in Iraq for a few years is either stoned or just stoopid."
"It is unknowable how long that conflict will last. It could last 6 days, 6 wks. I doubt 6 mths." Rummy 2/7/03
Posts: 31,944
memyselfI has disabled reputation
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 06:11 PM   #68
irishjayhawk irishjayhawk is offline
Feelin' Alright
 
irishjayhawk's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2004
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie View Post
You forget that the same people (actually their previous generation) beat back well armed Iraqis with "human waves" and chants of Allahu Akbar. I'm not saying that will happen, but if this thing goes on another week or so I wouldn't be surprised if some of the very "security" forces turn around to their side. Or maybe factions in the Army.
Judging from people on the ground, this is a pretty rampant rumor. They so far have refused mobilization against the people so that says something in itself. But rumors are the generals in command aren't happy with developments.
__________________
"Think about how stupid the average person is. Then remember that half the people in the world are stupider than that." --George Carlin
Posts: 16,887
irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 06:24 PM   #69
irishjayhawk irishjayhawk is offline
Feelin' Alright
 
irishjayhawk's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2004
Casino cash: $5000
For the record, that girl in the video was named Neda. She was not a protester but was watching along side her father in front of their store. A Basiji aimed directly for the heart and took the shot. The doctor couldn't save her (his friend shot the video) and she died in 2 minutes. Her father is the one crying in the video.

For now, she has become the voice of the movement. Her name, in farsi, apparently means voice or call. Twitter's trending topics has her as 1. She wasn't the only casualty but her's has become the face and voice of the movement now.
__________________
"Think about how stupid the average person is. Then remember that half the people in the world are stupider than that." --George Carlin
Posts: 16,887
irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.irishjayhawk is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 06:24 PM   #70
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
RING****ER
 
RINGLEADER's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $5190
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie View Post
I'm generally of the same opinion. But I can see them accepting American help at some point if they feel assured that it's only for humanitarian reasons and not "a gift from the Greeks." For that They would need to trust the Obama administration and for now anyway B.O. is pretty popular in Iran.
Was in a discussion with some Iranians at the local coffee shop here in Los Angeles and they said about the same thing you say above. I asked if that would turn them against us and pro-government. He said it would have the opposite effect, in his opinion. He said that the thugs that are beating people on the street feel as if they have to answer to no one and if their leaders were bombed it would embolden the people in a way that the Iranian government couldn't stop.

Of course he also said he expects Israel to bomb Iran in the next 24 hours while there is an ongoing resistence on the ground so who knows?
Posts: 22,952
RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 06:25 PM   #71
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
RING****ER
 
RINGLEADER's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $5190
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie View Post
An explanation:

The phrase "Sheer shodeh," meaning "he has turned into a lion," is normally used as sarcasm describing a coward who acts brave behind some sure support or weapon.
And then I read this...
Posts: 22,952
RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 07:24 PM   #72
mlyonsd mlyonsd is offline
Supporter
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Spink, SD
Casino cash: $5260
Quote:
Originally Posted by memyselfI View Post
Well that was insightful.
Not really since a chimp was the first to say it years ago.
Posts: 24,962
mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 08:24 PM   #73
Crush Crush is offline
Our Moses
 
Crush's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $5320
Fark has some damn good coverage on the entire situation.

A relatively large crowd was present to hear Khameini declared during the prayers, while Reformist leaders called on their supporters to stay home. It was very easy to notice that this crowd was also much older than those we have seen revolting.

There were two sermons, a religious one and a political one.
- The religious sermon itself was rather short and stayed on topic. It concentrated at first on peace and tranquility, leading into the fact that the Revolution was the Will of Allah, that it was sacred and its goals were the goals of Allah. He continued by asking Allah victory over their common enemies, and that people who went against the Revolution were enemies of Allah.

- The policial speech was much longer and disjointed. He started by thanking everyone for the election, then he proceeded to blame the West, claimed that Iran was one of the most democratic country on Earth and that the results were not rigged. He claimed that while yes, there is some corruption in Iran, it's nowhere near the UK MP expenses scandal. He then directly threatened the pro-Reformists leaders, saying that all the violence will be their responsibility. This is all the works of Zionist spies and British radio, and Hillary Clinton was responsible for Waco so Iran is better than America and the West.

There are three major statements to be gleaned from these speech, with further confirmation of a fourth. However boring and long-winded it might have been to the Western ear, it was a major milestone of this revolution, and its implications are far-reaching:

1- His declaration that the Islamic Revolution sacred, that its goals were the goals of Allah and that those who went against it were the enemies of Allah. He then asked Allah victory over the enemies.

This is major. He has in fact painted the entire reformist movement as being anti-Islamic. Due to his position, and the tone that he adopted, this is basically a death sentence delivered to those who will keep on protesting. Not unexpected, but a bold move nonetheless.

2 - He fully supports Ahmadinejad.

This is not a surprise, but he did not back down one inch. He does not give credibility to any of the Reformist claims, and says to either toe the line, or suffer the consequences.

3 - He has put the responsability of violence on the shoulders of the Reformist leaders, and openly declared that he is not going to tolerate it anymore.

This means that the repression from now on will be much more violent, and has more or less openly threatened the leaders of the Revolution that they will pay with their lives if they continue.

4 - As confirmed by Stratfor, the Revolutionary Guard has taken over from the police in all matters of domestic law and order. This effectively means that they are going to start crushing dissent as well, and that they have allied themselves to the regime.

Out of all major developments, this is the biggest one. Will the army stay Neutral, toe the line or side with the Reformists?
Posts: 14,876
Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 08:30 PM   #74
Crush Crush is offline
Our Moses
 
Crush's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $5320
Tatsuma Update 2:

It seems that in reaction to being relegated second in the Satans category, the U.S. House has decided to pass a resolution supporting the protesters and Obama is expected to endorse it, which will most likely lead to further delegitimization of the Reformist movement.

In other news, things are not rosy for the Basij and there are increasing signs that they are starting not only to lose ground, but to fear for their safety. There are many reports that most Basij forces are now hiding their identities with masks for fear of reprisal. There are websites being created featuring images and often identities of Basij who have been violently repressing students, calling for actin to be taken against those men.

I really am trying to cram the most relevant information and speculation only. Everything is updated as events unfold, especially the timeline and what will happen in the future. If you want to link this, here is the website, updated as the situation changes:

https://sites.google.com/site/tatsumairanupdate/

For those wondering, here is the current time in Iran

All twitter posts about the army being involved are false as I am writing this Warning, new twitter feeds are most likely government members trying to spread misinformation, ignore them! They have really stepped-up their efforts in the last day or so. Also, there is a handful of good twitter feeds, but please do not publicize their usernames, they are in enough danger as it is and they don't need more publiclity. Those in the know will c/p their entries. Major timeline overhaul, including what has unfolded in the last few hours.

Suppression of Dissent - The Players

Currently, there are either two or three maybe four groups who are suppressing the students on the ground that you'll read about throughout this thread:


1. The Basij
2. Ansar Hizbullah (which I will refer to as Ansar)
3. Lebanese Hizbullah (Unconfirmed but either probable or a persistent rumour. Der Spiegel, based on a Voice of America report, says that 5,000 Hizbullah fighters are currently in Iran masquerading as riot police, confirming the independent reports. Iran Press News has posted two photographs of men they claim are Hizbullah and Hamas mercenaries. Many different independent reports and video point that way. Even in the last days other independent twitter feeds have declared witnessing thugs beating on people while shouting in Arabic; I will refer to them as Hizbullah)
4. Lebanese Hamas (unconfirmed and doubtful. This rumour has been cropping up all day, with some of the most twitter feeds saying they had visual confirmation of Lebanese Hamas fighters along with Lebanese Hizbullah member. Take with a grain of salt, but it has been mentioned often enough, by sources generally always right, that it deserves of a mention here. Iran Press TV also claims to have posted a picture of Hamas mercenaries. I will refer to them as Hamas)

- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'Ítre is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brownshirts.

They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election, but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.

- Another group was working with them, whose members are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not functioning under a legal umbrella, they are considered a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.

- The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. However, Hizbullah has been called to stop violent riots in Iran in the past.

(the following paragraph includes some speculation based on reports from ground zero, it is no confirmed, this is what was reported early on by various twitter feeds considered credible, so do not take this as anything but unconfirmed rumours) Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. According to Iranians on the ground, they are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.

- The Lebanese Hamas is a branch of Hamas set-up in Lebanon. Like Hamas in Gaza, Hamas in Lebanon is directly under the orders of the Hamas council of Damascus known as Majlis al-Shurah. While it is surprising to hear that they might be involved, and as I said take these reports with a grain of salt until we get more confirmations, it is not illogical either. Iran has become the main benefactor of Hamas in the last years, branching out from only supporting Islamic Jihad. They now provide Hamas with the bulk of their budget, with advanced weaponry and training by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Not only do Hamas own them a lot, but if the Republic falls, Hamas finds itself in dire trouble. It is very likely that, at the call of Iran, the Majlis al-Shura would have decided to send fighters from their Lebanese Hamas branch along with Hizbullah fighters if it was requested of them.
Posts: 14,876
Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2009, 08:35 PM   #75
Crush Crush is offline
Our Moses
 
Crush's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $5320
Other Players

Decided to create this section in order to give a wider range of explanations for people who might not be too familiar with Iran's internal politics and structure.

The Police

Iran's police is not dissimilar to your run-of-the-mill law enforcement in other dictatorships, with the difference that they are not generally as brutal and repressive. This is because the Basij are generally in charge of these activities, meaning that Iranian policemen generally concentrate more on the law and order aspect of Iranian daily life.

Today, it is thought that the Iranian police numbers close to 60,000 members, in contrast with up to a million Basij members. This is one of the reasons why we hear much more about the plainclothes militia than we do about the police right now, the other being that the Basij and Ansar are much more willing to violently assault their fellow citizens than even the regular police force. This is not as much a testament to the decency of your average police officers as much as a damning report of what the Basij and Ansar thugs are like.

There are also subdivisions and extra-legal forces attached to the police force. The major subdivision would be the riot police (So-called Unit 110) who are actually much more violent than regular police officers, but also in much, much smaller numbers. There is also VEVAK, the secret police. Very little is known and confirmed about them, except their extreme tactics include murder, kidnapping and torture.

The Army

In Iran, there are actually two armies. They are divided between Artesh and Pasdaran.

Artesh is the regular Military apparatus of the Republic. Their numbers, including reservists, go up to a million members, but only half of them have received anything more than very basic training. As it is often the case in police states, there is very little known and confirmed about the structure of the Army itself.

They were created prior to the Iranian Revolution, in fact this army has existed in one form or another, and is a continuation, for more than 2,500 years. This is not as impressive as it sounds, however, as they often underwent drastic changes, there is no real links between the current incarnations, and the top echelons were most often purged when new rulers took power. In fact, in the last 100 years, those purges happened between two or three times, depending on the count, the last time centered around the time of the Islamic revolution, when most generals were forced to flee, killed, or killed while in exile.

Artesh took the brunt of the military casualties during the Iran-Iraq war, the army is considered to very nationalist and not extremely religious, which explains why they have declared their neutrality and refusal to repress the situation, as they see their purpose to defend the Iranian population.

Everyone agrees they will be the ultimate key to this Revolution when they finally decide to take a side, or alternatively force the Pasdaran to stay on the sidelines with them.

Pasdaran, also known as Iranian Revolutionary Guard

The Iranian Ground forces (I will focus on them, as the Navy and Airforce are currently irrelevant, will update if the situation changes) have been estimated between 100,000 and 130,000 units total. As always, truth most likely resides somewhere in the middle. They are, much like the Basij and Ansar, subservient directly to the Supreme Leader, and ideologically created in the spirit of defending the Islamic Revolution ideals and Republic, not Iran per se. They also control the Basij.

They are a child of the revolution, and they are more geared toward guerilla warfare than they are for military engagements. They are also the force responsible for training the various terrorist groups financed and supported by the Iranian government. They are fanatically devoted to the Republic through intense indoctrination.

The elite troops are called Quds. They are considered the elite of the elite, but they only number between 2000-6000, although rumours say that they are twice or three time as big. They are, however, rumours and quite unlikely.

Ultimately, the Revolutionary Council and the Supreme Leader will call on them if they think they are on the verge of losing power, however it is unlikely that the army will just stay on the sidelines if this happens.

The Guardian Council, formerly known as The Revolutionary Council

The Revolutionary Council was created by Ayatollah Khomeini shortly before the Iranian Revolution. Since then, they have sat as the real authority of Iran. The Guardian Council is made up of 12 Ayatollahs, and they are the ones who dictate every little facet of Iranian life, making the position of President mostly irrelevant, as they do not take any major decisions without first asking permission from Khameini and his cronies. They do not have any qualms about hiding this, as the head of the Council is called "Supreme Leader".

The very goal of this revolution has become not only to elect Moussavi as President, but also elect Grand Ayatollah Montazeri as Supreme Leader. GA Montazeri has been calling for a separation of Mosque and State, and transferring most powers of the Supreme Leader to the President, including control of the Armed Forces.

The Grand Ayatollahs

The Grand Ayatollahs are Shiite clerics who first attained the position of Ayatollahs and then, through their knowledge of Islamic Jurisprudence, attained a supreme position and are regarded as the most important voice in Shia Islam today. They center around the holy Shiite city of Qom, though some live outside Iran.


What will happen

Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the early beginnings of the new Revolution, Ansar & Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Basij as a support while also protecting government buildings and try to do crowd control. The police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like Tehran according to all reports, including international media. If the police decides to come back, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, so the Basij will start to crack more skulls).

Currently, this is what is happening. Regarding the repression of dissent.

As for the political scene, the majority of Grand Ayatollahs who expressed an opinion on this have sided with the protesters/against the results of the election. They are GA Ardebili, GA Montazeri, GA Shirazi, GA Golpaygani and GA Sanei. The only Grand Ayatollah who has sided in favor of the election results is Khameini, who is also the Supreme Leader of the Revolutionary Council, and the facto ruler of Iran.

Timeline
note: I built this through both articles and twitter feeds, so I do not claim that this is a 100% factually correct representation of reality, but this is the general narrative.

14th of June - While the previous day had been witness to some protests, they were for the most part peaceful. However, as time grew the protests turned more and more violent. When the first spontaneous riots erupted, the first wave of violence was unleashed. The Iranian Riot Police was called in to support the regular police officers controlling the protests, and shortly after the Basij also took the scene, moving from a passive to active role of repression. The RP concentrated mostly around public buildings and streets while the Basij took position around student groups, especiallly universities.

- As things got more out of hand, more and more Basij troops were called in, as the police started dispersing. The riot police are less inclined (or, rather I should say the Basij are more inclined) to use violence so they retreated and leaving the place to the Basij. The repressive forces concentrated their assault mostly around the main Iranian universities, while the riot police were concentrating on protecting various government buildings such as the Interior Ministry. At least two people had been killed already.

- On the telecommunication front, this is when we started to hear more and more from twitters while videos were being freely updated to youtube (while youtube started to delete the more violent ones a few hours later). This is also the moment where the government realized what was happening, and ordered for the internet, phone lines and cellphones to be cut off, in order to avoid people communicating with the outside world.

late 14th, early 15th of June - This is the second wave of violent repression. At this point, violent riots had spread all over the main cities of Iran. The violence against citizens was not only the fruit of the Basij anymore, but also came from Ansar Hizbullah members. This is the point where firearms started being used. There were reports of a few murders but it was mostly fired in the air or on walls in order to scare away protesters in University dorms. It's also around the same time that the first reports and videos of an important number of non-Persian thugs shouting in Arabic and violently beating people with chains, clubs and electric batons (similar to cattle prods), which led to many speculating that lebanese Hizbullah members were now in Iran. Der Spiegel, through Voice of America, later claimed that 5000 Hizbullah fighters were passing off as Riot Police, validating the claims of many independent sources and twitter feeds.

- Universities have been the hotbed of protests, serving as a hub of anti-government demonstrations and preparations. 120 teachers from the Sharid University resigned in protest over the election results. Perfectly away of this, the Basij, Ansar and possibly Hizbullah members concentrated their attacks on University Dorms all over the country, storming them and beating students, destroying everything, especially computers.

- The end of the second wave came right before the beginning of the current manifestation. Things were getting quieter with only sporadic reports of dissenters being assaulted. Important to note: at this time. the Supreme Leader authorized the plainclothes militias to use live ammunition against the crowd if things were to get out of hands. By the end of the first two waves of protests, hundreds of people had been arrested.

midday, 15th of June - This brings us to the third wave, which just began around 12:30PM for those of us on the East Coast. Plainclothes militia opened fire on civilians protesting peacefully. Possibly up to 2 million protesters took the street. Chaos erupted in the streets, with reports of fighting all over Tehran and spreading over Iran as the news circulated. Pictures of people shot, some to death, finally surfaced and were published in the mainstream media. Violent and murderous repression has started. At least a twenty people had been killed at this by the end of the 15th of June.

- There is a major national crackdown on students, especially those with connections to the outside world going on right now. Students are fighting back in some areas. Telephones are being bugged and everyone twittering and sending videos outside of Iran are being rounded up. ISPs were shut down, government hackers are threatening people who twitter, and some of them have vanished in the last 24 hours.

- Eventually, the people started to fight back. First, they took over and burned down a Basij base, killing its commander. Later, a Basij shot a young man in the face in front of their HQ, at which point a policeman went to confront them. The Basij beat the policeman, at which point students stormed the compound, throwing molotov cocktails, burning it to the ground.
Posts: 14,876
Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.Crush threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:01 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.