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Old 04-23-2007, 08:40 AM  
Donger Donger is offline
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Gasoline at $4 Coming to a Pump Near You, Unfazed by Rising Tab

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=afOlUzd30YOo

Pretty alarmist, IMO, but possible.

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Whether it's $50 to fill up your Prius or $130 for the Ford Expedition, $4-a-gallon gasoline is coming to a pump near you.

Fuel prices are rising at a pace not seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out a third of the U.S. oil refining industry in 2005. Gasoline consumption is climbing twice as fast as last year and will accelerate when summer travel begins late next month.

``What we're surprised by is the increased demand,'' said James Mulva, chief executive officer at ConocoPhillips, whose refineries from California to New Jersey produce 56 million gallons of gas a day, enough to meet 14 percent of the country's needs. ``Even though the price of gasoline is up, the demand is up,'' he said in an April 12 interview in Houston.

Population gains and U.S. economic growth are causing an increase in fuel purchases, according to Orlando, Florida-based AAA, the nation's largest organization for motorists. The U.S. economy will expand at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the first three months, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline use is rising almost 5 percent above the five-year average.

Americans are resigned to higher prices, says David Pursell, a principal with Pickering Energy Partners, a consulting firm in Houston.

``Last year, we had pump prices well over $3 for the summer and gasoline demand was up,'' Pursell said in an interview. ``Would $4 gasoline cause demand contraction? I think it will, but I also thought $3 gasoline would.''

Pump Prices

Gasoline inventories, measured by the days of demand they will cover, are at the lowest level in two decades for this time of year because of refinery fires, power failures and maintenance work oil companies failed to complete in 2006. No new U.S. refinery has been built in three decades, increasing the strain on existing plants.

Pump prices in the U.S. may increase to $4 a gallon from a nationwide average of $2.87 today, especially if hurricanes threaten Gulf of Mexico refineries, says Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who helps industrial consumers manage energy costs.

``Hurricanes are always the huge wild card,'' said Beutel. ``We're all praying for a year like 2006 rather than 2005.''

The June-to-November Atlantic Ocean hurricane season may produce 17 tropical storms, with nine reaching hurricane force and four becoming major hurricanes whose winds exceed 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), London-based forecasters at Tropical Storm Risk said. Some of the storms will strike the Gulf Coast this year after a benign 2006, AccuWeather.com predicted.

Inflation Risk

Higher pump prices will make winners of refinery owners such as ConocoPhillips, San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of The Hague. Shares of Valero and Sunoco Inc., whose only business is refining, are rebounding after a decline at the end of last summer.

The increase in fuel costs threatens to quicken inflation and restrain consumer spending in the U.S. An appreciation to $4 a gallon would add more than $10 for a driver who fills the 12- gallon tank of a Toyota Motor Corp. Prius. The owner of an Expedition, a Ford Motor Co. sport-utility vehicle with a 34- gallon capacity, faces an increase of almost $40.

Many Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.

More Commuters

``We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.

Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.

Rising fuel prices make it less likely that Federal Reserve policy makers, who have cited inflation risks for the past year, will cut interest rates to spur economic growth. Before the hurricane-induced peak in 2005, U.S. gasoline topped out at $1.42 a gallon in March 1981, or $3.21 when adjusted for inflation, according to the Energy Department.

Economies in Europe and Asia are less likely to be hurt by gasoline prices because fuel already is subject to high taxes designed to encourage conservation. A gallon of unleaded costs about 3.25 pounds a gallon ($6.49) in the U.K., and in Japan it's 130.3 yen per liter ($4.16 a gallon).

$4 Barrier

U.S. consumers will get little relief on gasoline prices from Europe this year, unlike 2005, when oil companies shipped more across the Atlantic after the hurricanes. Europe's gasoline inventories in February were 114.2 million barrels, down 11 percent from two years earlier, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The drop in Europe was almost twice the 5.7 percent decline in U.S. supplies in that time.

``Just as we used to think $3 a gallon was an impenetrable barrier, now it's $4,'' said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business in College Park and former chief economist for the U.S. International Trade Commission. Gasoline at $3.50 is likely, Morici said, and a conflict with Iran or any event that disrupts crude supplies may push it to $4.

Pump prices rose 33 percent in the past 11 weeks, the fastest rate of gain since a six-week, 34 percent rally to the record $3.069 in September 2005, Energy Department data show.

Bodman's `Worry'

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in an interview last week said the national average pump price could break the record this summer. While his agency's official forecast is for gasoline to peak next month at about where it is today, hurricanes, refinery closures or crude oil supply cuts may send prices higher, he said.

Higher prices are ``a legitimate worry,'' Bodman said. ``We have trouble spots all over the world'' that could boost crude oil prices. ``We're in a very tight situation.''

Spending on fuel in the U.S. consumes half as much household income as in the early 1980s, which means gasoline would need to reach almost $6 a gallon to have the same effect on the economy as in 1981, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Storage tanks at U.S. refineries, terminals and ports hold enough gasoline to cover almost 22 days of domestic demand, 8.2 percent less than the five-year average and the lowest for this time of year since the 1980s, Energy Department figures show.

Shortages

Valero-owned filling stations in Denver and Colorado Springs, Colorado, ran dry after a Feb. 16 explosion and fire shut the company's McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas. A day earlier, a blaze at an Exxon Mobil Corp. plant in Nanticoke, Ontario, slashed output, resulting in shortages and higher prices across eastern Canada.

The McKee shutdown strained supplies so much that ConocoPhillips postponed maintenance at its Borger, Texas, refinery north of Amarillo to prevent shortages in the region.

``Refineries are becoming more complex,'' Mulva said in the Houston interview. ``What we're finding is it's more difficult keeping reliability up with more sophisticated pieces of equipment that are highly integrated.''

Tesoro Corp. of San Antonio, the second-largest refiner in the western U.S., said first-quarter refinery use dropped because oil companies delayed until this year maintenance that could have been done in 2006. The portion of U.S. refining capacity that was in operation in the first quarter declined to 87.3 percent from 88.9 percent a year earlier, according to Energy Department data.

`Refineries Blow Up'

``Prices will depend entirely on whether we have a couple of refineries blow up,'' said Philip K. Verleger, an economist who runs a consulting firm in Newport Beach, California. ``It's almost impossible we'll get to $4 a gallon if all the refineries run well this summer. But if something happens and there are problems, then anything's possible.''

The average share gain for Valero, Tesoro and six other oil-refining companies is 26 percent this year, outperforming the 4.1 percent gain for Exxon Mobil and a 4.7 percent increase for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

The shares will continue to rally, said Paul Carlson, who helps manage $3 billion at HGK Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

``Refiners are doing very well these days,'' said Carlson, whose holdings include ConocoPhillips, the second-biggest U.S. refiner. ``There will be lots of demand for any new refining stocks.''

`Back in Favor'

As recently as August, investors were selling oil refiners on concern an economic slowdown would slash fuel demand in the U.S., the world's largest energy market. During seven weeks last August and September, Valero shares fell 29 percent, wiping out $12 billion in market value.

``Refining is very much back in favor,'' said Douglas Ober, who helps oversee $2.3 billion at Baltimore-based Adams Express Co. ``Even with higher prices, we haven't seen any substantial cutback in demand. They're cranking out as much of this stuff as they can, and we're throwing it in our tanks as fast as we can.''

The margin earned from processing crude oil into fuels rose to $24.68 a barrel on April 11, the highest since right after the hurricanes in September 2005. The margin has since retreated to $22.12 a barrel, still about double the five-year average.

``It'll be a fairly tight gasoline market all through the summer,'' said Robert Hinckley, an analyst at Rochdale Securities in New York.
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Old 09-27-2011, 08:32 AM   #3151
sedated sedated is offline
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gas down to $3.18 around here today.

how sad is it that people are actually excited about that? "yay! the dildo being jammed into my ass is a quarter-inch smaller today!!"
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Old 09-27-2011, 08:49 AM   #3152
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Originally Posted by sedated View Post
gas down to $3.18 around here today.

how sad is it that people are actually excited about that? "yay! the dildo being jammed into my ass is a quarter-inch smaller today!!"
EXACTLY! The country has accepted $3.00 / gallon gasoline as being good.
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Old 09-27-2011, 09:03 AM   #3153
4th and Long 4th and Long is offline
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I was reading the paper today and apparenly Missouri has the cheapest gas prices in the nation right now, due to a good old fashioned gas price war in St. Louis. The average price is below $3.00 a gallon.
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Old 09-27-2011, 09:14 AM   #3154
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Avg. price in my neck of the woods is around $3.24 right now. Been steadily going down for the past few weeks.....Whats the story Donger?
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Old 09-27-2011, 10:09 AM   #3155
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St. Louis price war pulls down gasoline costs statewide

By STEVE EVERLY
The Kansas City Star
STEVE EVERLY The Kansas City Star
Updated: 2011-09-27T04:41:14Z

Gasoline prices have finally fallen below $3 a gallon — but you have to drive to the St. Louis area to fill up at that price.

“They’re having an old-fashioned gas price war,” said Mike Thornbrugh, a spokesman for QuikTrip.

In the throes of the price fight, St. Louis area retailers have dropped the average price to $2.97 a gallon.

Gasoline prices have been tumbling nationwide, down an average of 20 cents a gallon to $3.50 as fears of a worldwide economic slowdown hammer the cost of crude oil.

In Missouri, however, the St. Louis price war has dragged statewide gasoline prices down an average of 30 cents a gallon.

Add it all up, the AAA says, and Missouri on Monday sported the lowest average statewide gasoline price in the country.

“It’s great news,” said Mike Right, a spokesman for AAA.

A few other places, including parts of Michigan and Texas, are enjoying prices below $3 a gallon. But most consumers were still paying more than that.

In the Kansas City area, average gasoline prices were $3.29 on the Missouri side and $3.37 on the Kansas side, where fuel taxes are higher.

In St. Louis, the price war is slashing the profit margins of fuel retailers.

Thornbrugh wouldn’t say who fired the first shot but said QuikTrip would be aggressive in staying competitive on prices in every market it was in. The convenience store chain sells gasoline in nine major metropolitan areas, including Kansas City and St. Louis.

Other retailers, however, are blaming QuikTrip for starting the price war and keeping it going.

“They’re the Wal-Mart of the oil business,” said Joel Platke, who owns a Shell station in St. Louis.

As a result, gas stations there are scrambling to figure out how to stay profitable and not lose customers. Most have chosen to slash pump prices to keep bringing in customers buying Cokes and potato chips, but some others have balked.

Platke said he was selling gas at $3.20 a gallon, leaving him with only a few cents of profit after paying credit card fees.

“It’s not a good day for the little guy,” he said.

Kansas City area gas stations have retail margins of about 30 cents a gallon, above the national average but still much lower than the profits earned by oil producers and refineries. Refinery margins, the difference between crude oil costs and wholesale gasoline prices, are now 65 cents a gallon, more than double what is normal for this time of year.

Privately owned QuikTrip has 580 stores, and many of its markets in the past, including Kansas City, have seen price wars. QuikTrip is the biggest seller of gasoline in the Kansas City area, and it usually sets the price that others follow in Kansas City and St. Louis.

Convenience stores such as QuikTrip have transformed the retail gasoline business by holding down the price of gasoline in hopes of recouping on sales of snacks, soft drinks and other merchandise. Gasoline — often aggressively priced — is used to draw customers.

Several years ago, the state of Missouri sued QuikTrip, accusing it of selling gasoline below cost, which a state law prohibits because it unfairly hurts competitors. QuikTrip initially lost the case but appealed to the Missouri Supreme Court, which ruled in 2004 that the company did not violate the law because the state had not proved that QuikTrip had actually harmed its competitors or intended to.

Even without a price war, consumers have benefited from lower fuel prices. Oil prices peaked in April, and gasoline averaged $3.90 a gallon in the spring. But this week that was down to $3.50 nationally, according to the Energy Information Administration. That drop is enough to give an average household with two vehicles about $50 a month to spend on something else besides fuel.

Lewis Adam, president of Admo Energy in Kansas City, which helps fuel retailers manage their purchases of gasoline and diesel, said recent movements in energy markets could possibly knock an additional 20 cents a gallon off pump prices, which would get area consumers closer to $3 gasoline.

“It could happen now,” he said.

http://www.kansascity.com/2011/09/26...war-pulls.html
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Old 09-27-2011, 10:15 AM   #3156
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Are you aware that the gasoline price in the graphs is not a national average?

Anyway, what your graphs show is that sometimes crude outpaces gas prices, and sometimes that is flipped. I think everyone would agree that it's pretty amazing how consistent it is (because there really isn't any collusion). They also show that one can't say "$80 crude = X in gas" People have asked me that over this thread and I've done my best to accurate, but it isn't linear.
It is your own fault for refusing to update the op. I mean you could put all sorts of info in there.
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Old 09-27-2011, 10:31 AM   #3157
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I will never accept $3/gallon. The only people that do weren't alive to see it at about $1.70 per.
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Old 09-27-2011, 10:36 AM   #3158
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I will never accept $3/gallon. The only people that do weren't alive to see it at about $1.70 per.
What about $0.75 per?
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Old 09-27-2011, 10:51 AM   #3159
Setsuna Setsuna is offline
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What about $0.75 per?
Wow! Well I def wasn't alive then. I was born 88. Sooo penguinz, you sort of old?
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Old 09-27-2011, 10:53 AM   #3160
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I will never accept $3/gallon. The only people that do weren't alive to see it at about $1.70 per.
What are you, 11?

It was under a dollar in 1998.
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Old 09-27-2011, 10:54 AM   #3161
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What about $0.75 per?
I can remember it being in the 50-60 cent range when I first started driving.
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Old 09-27-2011, 11:00 AM   #3162
Setsuna Setsuna is offline
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What are you, 11?

It was under a dollar in 1998.
*sigh* When it mattered to me it was about $1.70. But yeah keep proving to me you're a douche.
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Old 09-27-2011, 11:10 AM   #3163
4th and Long 4th and Long is offline
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I can remember it being in the 50-60 cent range when I first started driving.
When I was a bicycle riding tike, the station at the end of my street had it for 29.9 a gallon.
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Old 09-27-2011, 11:21 AM   #3164
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I think it was around 90 cents when I started driving in 1997, which helped because I was the high school kid buying gas with change. I was pissed when it went over $1.
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Old 09-27-2011, 11:29 AM   #3165
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gahhhhh why why why is this happening to us. so not fair! damn oil prices
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