Official Super Tuesday Thread

[Bo's Pelini]

Predictions:

Romney wins Ohio.

[alnorth]

Hmmm, a bit more of Columbus just came in. That city is probably not going to be much help, its almost split.

It is probably Cinci or bust for Romney at this point.

[Bo's Pelini]

Southern Ohio is ultra conservative. Good luck Romney.

[alnorth]

data on Cinci: McCain destroyed Huckabee in that city, and they had 76k votes. Figure closer to 100k this year since there's no Dem race and we've got 4 national candidates still in.

Right now: only about 8,000 votes so far in Cinci, and Romney is up by 1,000 votes. Multiply that by about 11 or 12, and Santorum's lead goes down in a big way, plus whatever's left in Cleveland. However, not sure what Santorum's still got out there, he still could have a lot of votes coming in.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by alnorth

data on Cinci: McCain destroyed Huckabee in that city, and they had 76k votes. Figure closer to 100k this year since there's no Dem race and we've got 4 national candidates still in.

Right now: only about 8,000 votes so far in Cinci, and Romney is up by 1,000 votes. Multiply that by about 11 or 12, and Santorum's lead goes down in a big way, plus whatever's left in Cleveland. However, not sure what Santorum's still got out there, he still could have a lot of votes coming in.

Where are you tracking the vote totals?

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Where are you tracking the vote totals?

This is a pretty good map.

Things are looking sketchy for Romney. Cleveland and Cincinatti are coming through, but unless there's a ton of Romney precincts not reporting in yet in Columbus, Romney may lose this in the state capital. Its still early, and Romney's winning that city, but Santorum has just about fought him to a draw there, Romney needs to win Columbus by a lot more than he is right now.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by alnorth

This is a pretty good map.

Things are looking sketchy for Romney. Cleveland and Cincinatti are coming through, but unless there's a ton of Romney precincts not reporting in yet in Columbus, Romney may lose this in the state capital. Its still early, and Romney's winning that city, but Santorum has just about fought him to a draw there, Romney needs to win Columbus by a lot more than he is right now.

hey now that is huffington post that is not allowed here

[alnorth]

Really rough guess, Romney may have another 6,000 net votes coming in from Cleveland. He's failing hard in Columbus, he'll be lucky to get a net 2,000 more votes out of there, more than likely 500 or 1,000.

Cincinnati is too early and thin to tell, and its a really, really huge city. If that was all, Romney would probably win, but Santorum's got some small and medium-sized counties out there which will give him an extra 1,000 here, another 300 there, etc.

This is going to be close.

[Bo's Pelini]

Hey Repubs on here still think Romney has a chance against Obama?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bo's Pelini

Hey Repubs on here still think Romney has a chance against Obama?

Of course. Why do you ask?

[dirk digler]

Santorum wins North Dakota

[Bo's Pelini]

Originally Posted by Donger

Of course. Why do you ask?

Because he can't even beat a guy who can't get on the ballots in some states and outspends said candidate 10X1.

[alnorth]

Santorum looks good with over 60% in, but there's just too many votes out in Cleveland and Cinci to call it. If you eyeball it, it looks like Romney could just about, maybe, get Santorum's lead close to zero.

I now think Santorum's likely going to win the popular vote in Ohio, but he's not there yet.

[Bo's Pelini]

Santorum has won North Dakota.

[alnorth]

What the hell is going on with Medina county? Cleveland suburb, probably a Romney county, almost 18,000 votes in 2008, and they have not yet reported a damned thing.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by Bo's Pelini

Hey Repubs on here still think Romney has a chance against Obama?

No. I think Paul is our only hope with his 25 delegates.