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Old 01-31-2012, 01:52 PM  
Saul Good Saul Good is offline
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****The official NEW new conference realignment thread.****

the second thread has been pronounced dead.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:17 PM   #4261
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Those schools don't add value in football. Duke football won't generate additional interest in SEC football.

The ACC needs to just position itself as a basketball conference.

For that matter, in hockey a lot of schools don't play in the conference they do for other sports. Why not let basketball teams at schools where the football program is shite seek a good basketball conference?
They add almost 20,000,000 eyeballs to the conference footprint, though.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:18 PM   #4262
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It seems what was said earlier in the thread has not changed, that you have been wrong at every stage of this process
It seems like you're still an asshole who can't read. I'm relating what others have said, not what I believe will or won't happen. If you don't want to read it, then just ignore me or the thread. It is relevant to the OP unlike the garbage that spews from your ass.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:25 PM   #4263
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Originally Posted by qabbaan View Post
Those schools don't add value in football. Duke football won't generate additional interest in SEC football.
While I don't see the SEC wanting Duke, it's not necessarily about the football product they would bring. The move into NC is about TV's, period.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:25 PM   #4264
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They add almost 20,000,000 eyeballs to the conference footprint, though.
Damnit. Saul beat me to it.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:31 PM   #4265
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While I don't see the SEC wanting Duke, it's not necessarily about the football product they would bring. The move into NC is about TV's, period.
It's about more than televisions, but that is a large component of it.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:33 PM   #4266
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I don't know that Duke will get those eyeballs to turn on the SEC, though. I think it more a ruse to shake NC St. loose. The State of North Carolina's BOR is like a 12 member panel, and NC St only has four votes on that panel. So even if their wish was to bolt for the SEC, they might have serious political roadblocks to making that happen.

Duke, OTH, is a private institution. If the SEC can bluff negotiations with Duke convincingly enough, it might move the NC BOR to allow each school to seek their best opportunity away from a sinking ACC. I don't think that happens unless FSU announces they are going to the B12 and VPI says it is going to the SEC.

Since FSU seems concerned about going to the B12 without a dance partner, and the B12 is still waiting on ND to commit to something (NBC, B12, ACC, etc.), there is an effective logjam. The one with the most cause to try and break that logjam is the SEC because they hate 16 and want a network. Since none of us know exactly how much a Duke membership would help/hurt that network, its hard to say how serious the SEC is, which is exactly what they want, uncertainty in all the other players.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:37 PM   #4267
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I don't know that Duke will get those eyeballs to turn on the SEC, though. I think it more a ruse to shake NC St. loose. The State of North Carolina's BOR is like a 12 member panel, and NC St only has four votes on that panel. So even if their wish was to bolt for the SEC, they might have serious political roadblocks to making that happen.

Duke, OTH, is a private institution. If the SEC can bluff negotiations with Duke convincingly enough, it might move the NC BOR to allow each school to seek their best opportunity away from a sinking ACC. I don't think that happens unless FSU announces they are going to the B12 and VPI says it is going to the SEC.

Since FSU seems concerned about going to the B12 without a dance partner, and the B12 is still waiting on ND to commit to something (NBC, B12, ACC, etc.), there is an effective logjam. The one with the most cause to try and break that logjam is the SEC because they hate 16 and want a network. Since none of us know exactly how much a Duke membership would help/hurt that network, its hard to say how serious the SEC is, which is exactly what they want, uncertainty in all the other players.
I don't think the SEC wants NC State. The SEC favors flagship schools.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:42 PM   #4268
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It's about more than televisions, but that is a large component of it.
Well sure, I think ideally you'd want a school like MU. State with a large television base that is better than average at both major sports. So you get best of both worlds.... decent to good sports in a highly populated state.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:43 PM   #4269
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I don't think the SEC wants NC State. The SEC favors flagship schools.
That might be true, but I don't think its a deal breaker. UNC is a much tougher fish to reel in. There is a high degree of academic snobbery there and at UVA. They see themselves more in a B!G academic setting than an SEC one. They know the SEC won't offer both them and Duke, but the B!G might. So, they will hold out until the bitter end which may be longer than the SEC cares to.

NC St is the football program and regaining their basketball prominence, and that would appeal to the SEC. NC St will draw enough of the interest in North Carolina to make it worthwhile unlike the crapshoot with Duke.

I think the SEC would prefer UVA and UNC, but UVA is even more snobbey than UNC, so they focused on the better football school in VPI. They'll probably do the same in North Carolina.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:52 PM   #4270
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On the B12 side of things, ESPN has a limited number of slots for their programming and will not make bigger payouts, per team, past 12 schools. They'll match whatever past 12 schools, as long as the quality is there. FOX is willing to pay more because they get all the extra inventory.

This is why the B12 is trying to make slots 11 and 12 the most value, because they set the bar for each subsequent school. This is why they have such a love affair for ND. FSU-ND gives them the best bang for the buck, and then each subsequent school can expect that figure when joining. The bowl payout money doesn't go up with the number of teams, so each time you add teams, you further dilute that pot, that is what makes the TV contract so valuable to the B12.

By staying at 10, they get better shares. At 12, they might offset that with a CCG, but 11 and 12 will set the bar for any members beyond that.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:57 PM   #4271
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They add almost 20,000,000 eyeballs to the conference footprint, though.
Not really. People in NC are going to be watching Clemson, South Carolina, NC State, or to a lesser degree UNC during football season. Duke doesn't rate. You might get a good TV audience airing ECU because of the alumni in CLT or even in the triangle. Virginia and Virginia Tech also have significant followings in the state.

The landscape is already crowded for football. Duke isn't going to pull TVs in that aren't already watching the SEC. It is very very very far fetched that the SEC would give Duke a minute's thought.
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Old 07-18-2012, 01:00 PM   #4272
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That might be true, but I don't think its a deal breaker. UNC is a much tougher fish to reel in. There is a high degree of academic snobbery there and at UVA. They see themselves more in a B!G academic setting than an SEC one. They know the SEC won't offer both them and Duke, but the B!G might. So, they will hold out until the bitter end which may be longer than the SEC cares to.

NC St is the football program and regaining their basketball prominence, and that would appeal to the SEC. NC St will draw enough of the interest in North Carolina to make it worthwhile unlike the crapshoot with Duke.

I think the SEC would prefer UVA and UNC, but UVA is even more snobbey than UNC, so they focused on the better football school in VPI. They'll probably do the same in North Carolina.
I don't think the SEC is in a position where they need to settle for fallback options. If UNC and Virginia aren't moving, the SEC likely stays at 14. I used to be convinced that State and Tech made sense, but the more I think about it, the less sense they make.
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Old 07-18-2012, 01:00 PM   #4273
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North Carolina is the prize that the SEC really wants. Close to 10 million in the state and its one of the biggest brands in college sports. University of Virginia is right behind them. Thats two they really want. Big Ten wants both of them as well. Virginia Tech is 1b though for the SEC.

I could see the Big Ten making a push for North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and either Syracuse or Rutgers to go to 16. That would put a lot of money into the Big Ten network cable coffer.
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Old 07-18-2012, 01:06 PM   #4274
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I don't think the SEC is in a position where they need to settle for fallback options.
I don't think they ever would be. They could have any team they wanted. They favor adding strong teams, media markets and states to their footprint - but a lot of people outside the footprint have a little misunderstanding about what schools would add to those. For example, people here think Duke could get a sniff from the SEC because they are in NC and NC has a major city or two. Not that simple.
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Old 07-18-2012, 01:12 PM   #4275
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North Carolina is the prize that the SEC really wants. Close to 10 million in the state and its one of the biggest brands in college sports. University of Virginia is right behind them. Thats two they really want. Big Ten wants both of them as well. Virginia Tech is 1b though for the SEC.

I could see the Big Ten making a push for North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and either Syracuse or Rutgers to go to 16. That would put a lot of money into the Big Ten network cable coffer.
I could too, but someone still needs to break the logjam. The B!G, although they won't publicly state it, is waiting on ND too. In market terms, they are just that valuable. But, let's say ND reups with NBC and are effectively off the table for anyone.

What does UNC want to protect most if it feels he ACC can't be saved? They want to preserve Duke as a conference mate. Will the B!G take Duke to appease UNC? If they do, what is there next move, UVA or the NE markets? The SEC is the premiere sports conference, but overall, the B!G is the most desirable conference when you factor in academic benefits.

That's why I think by even mentioning schools like Duke and Louisville, the SEC is just shaking the tree a bit to see what might drop. The SEC just needs some kind of movement and then take their chance in the ACC pinata scramble.
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