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Old 08-23-2012, 10:08 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The "Beveridge Curve" predicts unemployment to recover by 2014.

I've never heard of the Beveridge Curve before, but here:



You can read about it more here, by Timothy Taylor.

Taylor writes that the Curve offers several insights to the current scenario:
  • Job openings are increasing, but the unemployment rate is not.
  • There are threey key reasons for this: "a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the available jobs; incentives from extended unemployment insurance that have slowed the incentive to take available jobs; and heightened uncertainty over the future course of the economy and economic policy"
  • These three factors have a historical tendency of correcting themselves over time.
  • By early 2014, the curve will have righted itself, and unemployment will drop like a rock.
Well, here's hoping.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:52 AM   #31
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Shrug. The Obama administration lists their economic track record at least several times a week. I'm willing to bet there's probably no instance in the past four years where I could have laid a defense down of the administration that they themselves hadn't already laid days before.

That doesn't change my argument, nor undermine it.
Two questions:

1) Did you look up Cutter's claim to verify yourself?

2) You do realize that you can't say with certainty that the stimulus prevented a "Second Great Depression," right?
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:58 AM   #32
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Two questions:

1) Did you look up Cutter's claim to verify yourself?

2) You do realize that you can't say with certainty that the stimulus prevented a "Second Great Depression," right?
1. I don't look up politicians to verify anything. They are mouths for hire. I've long argued those things for years now, which you surely know, with the exception of the Reagan line, which I ran across recently. I googled to compare private sector job creation totals, and sure enough, Obama's created more, and saved millions of other jobs in addition.

2. Most credible economists feel that this was in fact the case. I rely on them for my points of view on the economy.

Edited to add in the numbering of arguments.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:58 AM   #33
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Obama has been a dismal failure in a way that makes Jimmy Carter thrilled to know he can die and not be the worst president in the last 30 years.

Obama is an empty suit, sound bite generator and a Socialist if he admits it outright or not. I can't imagine a candidate further from my ideals than Obama.

Obama would be an outstanding Carnival barker....or circus ring master. He is a disaster as a leader of this country.

The United States has weathered the recession better than Europeans(whom Obama would like to Model the US after in many policies) it's because of the American work and business ethic...not because of Obama. It's because our people don't retire at 50 and work 30 hour work weeks with 3 months off with huge entitlements(well, the non-producer Americans do...).

Obama is atrocious. Another 4 years of Obama, with no concern of re-election will be the death toll of everything America is today. He's that bad.



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It's hard to call Obama a total failure in any credible way. If you disagree with his policies, that's fine. But you're going full retard.

The private sector has added as many jobs under the Obama administration as Reagan did in his first term. The United States, under Obama, has recovered from its recession better than any of its European allies. The stimulus package prevented the Great Recession from becoming the Second Great Depression.

Again, you can disagree with his policies, and even argued that he's performed really poorly (though I'd disagree), but if you're going to argue we've had four years of total failure... well, that's on you.
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:00 PM   #34
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Obama's inauguration day, Gas prices were $1.83. Today, they are near $3.80 national average.


FORWARD!
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:01 PM   #35
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
Obama has been a dismal failure in a way that makes Jimmy Carter thrilled to know he can die and not be the worst president in the last 30 years.

Obama is an empty suit, sound bite generator and a Socialist if he admits it outright or not. I can't imagine a candidate further from my ideals than Obama.

Obama would be an outstanding Carnival barker....or circus ring master. He is a disaster as a leader of this country.

The United States has weathered the recession better than Europeans(whom Obama would like to Model the US after in many policies) it's because of the American work and business ethic...not because of Obama. It's because our people don't retire at 50 and work 30 hour work weeks with 3 months off with huge entitlements(well, the non-producer Americans do...).

Obama is atrocious. Another 4 years of Obama, with no concern of re-election will be the death toll of everything America is today. He's that bad.
Don't even know how to respond to this. It's just a hot air'd rewording of the post I responded to in the first place, with only one paragraph (the 4th) halfway resembling an actual argument, one that is so goofy retarded that I'm pretty sure you posted it sarcastically to see if I'd actually waste time responding to it.
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:05 PM   #36
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
Obama's inauguration day, Gas prices were $1.83. Today, they are near $3.80 national average.
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:08 PM   #37
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I read this as "Beverage Curve" and was sorely disappointed upon opening.
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:33 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
1. I don't look up politicians to verify anything. They are mouths for hire. I've long argued those things for years now, which you surely know, with the exception of the Reagan line, which I ran across recently. I googled to compare private sector job creation totals, and sure enough, Obama's created more, and saved millions of other jobs in addition.
Oh, so you do verify things that politicians say. Link?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
2. Most credible economists feel that this was in fact the case. I rely on them for my points of view on the economy.

Edited to add in the numbering of arguments.
Okay, but they really don't know either, since the stimulus DID happen. We don't know that the result wouldn't have been the same without it. Agree?
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:35 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post

2. Most credible economists feel that this was in fact the case. I rely on them for my points of view on the economy.
I think you're confusing the stimulus with TARP. The stimulus was an inefficient pile of fail. Any President, perhaps not including a back to nature guy like Ron Paul, would have fashioned a stimulus. Not all of them would have created the mess of economically-shallow, constituent payback that Obama did. TARP, OTOH, prevented an unprecedented global financial system meltdown, by most credible accounts.

By their own standards (no more than 8% unemployment w/ stimulus), the Obama administration's stimulus was a failure.
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:42 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
The United States, under Obama, has recovered from its recession better than any of its European allies. The stimulus package prevented the Great Recession from becoming the Second Great Depression.
Y'know I love how liberals say he saved us from the great depression with his stimulus package, etc. It's like me, not having enough money in the bank to pay my mortgage, using all my credit cards for cash advances and saying "Look Honey, I saved our house!"
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:44 PM   #41
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What are you attempting to show with this graph?
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:53 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Oh, so you do verify things that politicians say. Link?
Link for what?

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Okay, but they really don't know either, since the stimulus DID happen. We don't know that the result wouldn't have been the same without it. Agree?
Of course. I never predicated certainty on economic projections.

It was pretty clear we were hurtling towards a depression. The stimulus provided enough demand to plug that leak.
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:56 PM   #43
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The Beveridge curve shows a fairly stable empirical relationship between job openings and unemployment. There is nothing political about it, and there is really no theory behind it either, it just shows over time a stable relationship in the data between two macroeconomic aggregates. The other you might be interested in is "Okun's Law" which shows a 2:1 relationship between GDP growth rates and changes in employment.

Both the Beveridge curve and Okun's Law have held up fairly well in this recession, suggesting that they are A) good predictors and that B) there is nothing particularly unusual about hiring/firing in this recession and recovery, as some have argued.
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Old 08-23-2012, 01:03 PM   #44
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I think you're confusing the stimulus with TARP. The stimulus was an inefficient pile of fail. Any President, perhaps not including a back to nature guy like Ron Paul, would have fashioned a stimulus. Not all of them would have created the mess of economically-shallow, constituent payback that Obama did. TARP, OTOH, prevented an unprecedented global financial system meltdown, by most credible accounts.

By their own standards (no more than 8% unemployment w/ stimulus), the Obama administration's stimulus was a failure.
The stimulus underperformed, but it was created to prevent a collapse into a depression, as well as rebound unemployment and the economy in general. It was big enough to accomplish the first priority, but about half the size needed to accomplish the other two.
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Old 08-23-2012, 01:10 PM   #45
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
Y'know I love how liberals say he saved us from the great depression with his stimulus package, etc. It's like me, not having enough money in the bank to pay my mortgage, using all my credit cards for cash advances and saying "Look Honey, I saved our house!"
The difference is, Obama wasn't the one who hurtled us towards a Depression. He inherited that situation.

If he had created the shitfest to begin with, you'd have an analogy that works.
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