The "Beveridge Curve" predicts unemployment to recover by 2014.

[Direckshun]

I've never heard of the Beveridge Curve before, but here:



You can read about it more here, by Timothy Taylor.

Taylor writes that the Curve offers several insights to the current scenario:

• Job openings are increasing, but the unemployment rate is not.
• There are threey key reasons for this: "a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the available jobs; incentives from extended unemployment insurance that have slowed the incentive to take available jobs; and heightened uncertainty over the future course of the economy and economic policy"
• These three factors have a historical tendency of correcting themselves over time.
• By early 2014, the curve will have righted itself, and unemployment will drop like a rock.

Well, here's hoping.

[DoucheMcCloud]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Even if you were correct (and you really aren't on this.. you aren't looking at the bigger picture that affects all businesses)... it doesn't matter. It is about PERCEPTION.. it could be a phantom bill that does nothing .. but if businesses are afraid of it.. they will hold back to see the effects before electively expanding. If I can choose between expanding NOW or later... I'll choose later if there is a big scary change just around the corner that could seriously effect my bottom line.

Dude, please. My Dad ran insurance corporations for decades. He and my Mom have an extremely successful business that they run out of their home. I know more about insurance, because of the environment I was born into, than most people in America.

Furthermore, hit job boards like Monster and whatnot. There are a ****ton of jobs out there for qualified people. A ****TON. Employers aren't worried about Obamacare - they're worried about making money!

If there are companies in need of employees that aren't hiring due to their ignorance of Obamacare, they probably aren't going to last, anyway.

[Comrade Crapski]

Moonbats, take notes:

leading indicator- An economic indicator that changes before the economy has changed. Examples of leading indicators include production workweek, building permits, unemployment insurance claims, money supply, inventory changes, and stock prices.

Read more: http://www.investorwords.com/2741/le...#ixzz24RMLQEYG

Notice there is nothing there about "corporate profits" or any other nonsense BS you can come up with to try and polish the turd that is Obamugabe.

[DoucheMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

Moonbats, take notes:

leading indicator- An economic indicator that changes before the economy has changed. Examples of leading indicators include production workweek, building permits, unemployment insurance claims, money supply, inventory changes, and stock prices.

Read more: http://www.investorwords.com/2741/le...#ixzz24RMLQEYG

Notice there is nothing there about "corporate profits" or any other nonsense BS you can come up with to try and polish the turd that is Obamugabe.

Did you make that website yourself, Melky?

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Dude, please. My Dad ran insurance corporations for decades. He and my Mom have an extremely successful business that they run out of their home. I know more about insurance, because of the environment I was born into, than most people in America.

Furthermore, hit job boards like Monster and whatnot. There are a ****ton of jobs out there for qualified people. A ****TON. Employers aren't worried about Obamacare - they're worried about making money!

If there are companies in need of employees that aren't hiring due to their ignorance of Obamacare, they probably aren't going to last, anyway.

There are always a ****ton of jobs on the internet. That's a useless metric. And you are simply wrong about this. You are looking at it with a much too narrow view. Obamacare (and other policy changes) is causing uncertainty, uncertainty is a bad thing for the economy. This is not a tough concept. I think you will be VERY HARD PRESSED to fin a credible economist who won't back the idea that uncertainty is bad for the economy. Period.

[KC native]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

You're absolutely wrong. You disregard anyone who says they are holding back as "partisan." well that's convenient as hell isn;t it.

The businesses that don;t blame Obamacare are objective. The ones that do are partisan liars. Well I guess that settles it!

Yes the recovery was going to be anemic. I'm fine with that... we are talking degrees here. It doesn't matter who was in office .. we would have had a recovery and it would have been slow. I am claiming it is SLOWER due to Obama's policies... especially Obamacare.

No, I work with this stuff for a living. I follow it a lot closer than you do.

For the bolded part, I said nothing of the sort. But if you were to look at recent earnings misses or guidance reductions, the common themes are deleveraging the the European Sovereign Debt fallout. Businesses aren't blaming Obamacare for that stuff.

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Did you make that website yourself, Melky?

You know whats sad and funny at the same time, in a pathetic sort of way? You and KC Rectum responding to posts with personal attacks, and who is always the first one crying about it? That's right, you or KC Rectum.

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by KC native

No, I work with this stuff for a living.

ie I'm a Primerica Rep who swindles widows out of their husbands retirement annuity.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by KC native

Businesses always have to guess. THE FUTURE IS BY DEFINITION UNCERTAIN.

How is that any different than with Bush senior, junior, Clinton, Carter, or any other president?

So, let's get you on record. You think the uncertainty caused by Obama's policies (mostly Obamacare) is roughly equivalent to any of our last .. 4 or 5 presidents?

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

There are always a ****ton of jobs on the internet. That's a useless metric. .

at Dane.

[DoucheMcCloud]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

There are always a ****ton of jobs on the internet. That's a useless metric. And you are simply wrong about this. You are looking at it with a much too narrow view. Obamacare (and other policy changes) is causing uncertainty, uncertainty is a bad thing for the economy. This is not a tough concept. I think you will be VERY HARD PRESSED to fin a credible economist who won't back the idea that uncertainty is bad for the economy. Period.

And once again, I disagree. This time from personal experience, but I am not going to share in the forum.

So, do you think that Nevada and California have the highest unemployment rates in the country due to the fear of Obamacare?

Again, 12% and 10.7%, respectively.

[KC native]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

There are always a ****ton of jobs on the internet. That's a useless metric. And you are simply wrong about this. You are looking at it with a much too narrow view. Obamacare (and other policy changes) is causing uncertainty, uncertainty is a bad thing for the economy. This is not a tough concept. I think you will be VERY HARD PRESSED to fin a credible economist who won't back the idea that uncertainty is bad for the economy. Period.

No you won't. Uncertainty is always present. Will an enterprise have sufficient revenues, are they entering in a good market, do they have a viable business model (cough groupon cough), etc. All of those decisions involve uncertainty. Uncertainty is key to capitalism.

[DoucheMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

You know whats sad and funny at the same time, in a pathetic sort of way? You and KC Rectum responding to posts with personal attacks, and who is always the first one crying about it? That's right, you or KC Rectum.

So you DID build that website?

And FTR, I haven't attacked anyone in this thread.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by KC native

No, I work with this stuff for a living. I follow it a lot closer than you do.

For the bolded part, I said nothing of the sort. But if you were to look at recent earnings misses or guidance reductions, the common themes are deleveraging the the European Sovereign Debt fallout. Businesses aren't blaming Obamacare for that stuff.

I'll be the first to admit that Obamacare isn't the ONLY factor here. BUT you can only blame Bush and Europe for so much. You can't blame Bush at all for any current uncertainty and Europe is only in the forefront of the mind of certain businesses (I'm not saying that is right or wrong).

[KC native]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

So, let's get you on record. You think the uncertainty caused by Obama's policies (mostly Obamacare) is roughly equivalent to any of our last .. 4 or 5 presidents?

Yes.

Presidents rarely deserve praise or blame when it comes to the economy.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

And once again, I disagree. This time from personal experience, but I am not going to share in the forum.

So, do you think that Nevada and California have the highest unemployment rates in the country due to the fear of Obamacare?

Again, 12% and 10.7%, respectively.

You aren't getting my point. The crisis and subsequent recovery are givens. Unemployment would exist no matter who or what. my point is SOLELY that Obama's policies SLOWED recovery. So yes, I think those rates are inflated due to many many factors .. ONE of which is overwhelming uncertainty.