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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 09-03-2012, 12:58 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
No one should even need to hear what Romney is about given the obvious failure we've experienced for the past 4 years. There's no excuse for giving a vote to Barack Obama in 2012.
That's rich. Don't pay attention to who you're voting for, just go the other guy.
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Old 09-03-2012, 01:05 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
There's no excuse for giving a vote to Barack Obama in 2012.
Theres that bubble again. People have seen this before, it was called the George Bush era and that didn't turn out well.

Romney offers GW policies again nothing new:
Tax cuts that favor the rich
Relax regulations and let businesses do whatever they want
capital gains tax cuts
Drill baby Drill

And then he decided to build on that wonderful legacy with:
New possible war with Iran.
Coupons for medicare
No investment in education.
No investment in long term energy independence.
No investment in science
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-03-2012, 01:07 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Theres that bubble again. People have seen this before, it was called the George Bush era and that didn't turn out well.

Romney offers GW policies again nothing new:
Tax cuts that favor the rich
Relax regulations and let businesses do whatever they want
capital gains tax cuts
Drill baby Drill

And then he decided to build on that wonderful legacy with:
New possible war with Iran.
Coupons for medicare
No investment in education.
No investment in long term energy independence.
No investment in science
Who needs science? Creationism is all you need and you don't need science for that, just faith.
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Old 09-03-2012, 01:12 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
No one should even need to hear what Romney is about given the obvious failure we've experienced for the past 4 years. There's no excuse for giving a vote to Barack Obama in 2012.
I would agree with that on its face as well. But ultimately, it is the responsibility of the candidate to get his message across to the voters. And Romney's campaign has not been as successful as one would have hoped so far. It boggles my mind that this election is even close given the performance of the President the last four years.

I think the next two weeks are critical. I am worried about a big Obama bump from the DNC due to the fact that Obama is a very good speech maker, and he also has one of the great speech makers in Bill Clinton as well shilling for him that week.

How much of a bump do you think Obama will get from the DNC?
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Old 09-03-2012, 01:29 PM   #50
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It boggles my mind that this election is even close given the performance of the President the last four years.
If the R's would get out of the bubble and look at the situation from a reality standpoint. This is Kerry vs. Bush II.

Unemployment over 8%. 69% of the country thinks they are the same or worse off than 4 years ago. Over 50% think its heading in the wrong direction. The republican nominee should be comfortably ahead.

There is no way that Bush should have got a 2nd term. The Dems fielded a candidate that was unable to connect with the middle class undecideds. He was a very weak candidate. Romney is a weak candidate. The addition of the guy who wants to kill medicare will cost him Florida, not help.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-03-2012, 01:30 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
I would agree with that on its face as well. But ultimately, it is the responsibility of the candidate to get his message across to the voters. And Romney's campaign has not been as successful as one would have hoped so far. It boggles my mind that this election is even close given the performance of the President the last four years.

I think the next two weeks are critical. I am worried about a big Obama bump from the DNC due to the fact that Obama is a very good speech maker, and he also has one of the great speech makers in Bill Clinton as well shilling for him that week.

How much of a bump do you think Obama will get from the DNC?
I have no idea. I agree with you that teleprompted oration is a strength of his though. I look forward to the debates where I think Obama expectations are far higher than they should be. He'd just not that good. In that setting, he's like a mediocre salesman who's trying to sell a flawed product. Romney, on the other hand, has had a lot of practice this year and I think he's improved considerably. Plus he'll have lessor expectations to meet.
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Old 09-03-2012, 01:50 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I have no idea. I agree with you that teleprompted oration is a strength of his though. I look forward to the debates where I think Obama expectations are far higher than they should be. He'd just not that good. In that setting, he's like a mediocre salesman who's trying to sell a flawed product. Romney, on the other hand, has had a lot of practice this year and I think he's improved considerably. Plus he'll have lessor expectations to meet.
I have not seen Romney much in the primary debates. I am hopeful that the combination of experience from the primaries, along with lower expectations, can help him gain ground in the debates. I think the economic facts are on his side by a wide margin. If Obama's bump is minimal from the DNC, I will feel much better, if he gets a big bump I think there is cause for concern.
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Old 09-07-2012, 07:17 AM   #53
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Those lean states from Obama are now all moving to the likely category with the exception of Florida, which is moving towards likely. Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia are all over 70% likelihood of being in the Obama column. Wisconsin has moved to an 80% probability of going Obama. North Carolina remains a lean state for Romney but is trending towards Obama. Arizona and even Indiana have moved out of the safe column for Romney. Montana and Missouri are also trending towards Obama. Despite many, including CNN, that consider Michigan to be a battleground state, 538 believes it is safe for Obama. That belief is probably shared by the Romney campaign as he is not advertising there. Most likely if he did then Obama would be able to bring out the fact that Romney is on record against the successful auto bailout.

On the whole the Obama campaign is now up to a 77.3% chance of winning with an average haul of 313 EC votes.

So whats the math for Romney? If he were to somehow flip every state that is less than 80% probability of going to Obama, he gets to 281 votes. He simply has to have Ohio in his column or he is not going to win. That's a pretty tall order. I would say maybe he should try to put Pennsylvania in play.
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Last edited by whoman69; 09-07-2012 at 07:35 AM..
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Old 09-07-2012, 10:01 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
No one should even need to hear what Romney is about given the obvious failure we've experienced for the past 4 years. There's no excuse for giving a vote to Barack Obama in 2012.


This is really where the Republicans fail. You want to run on the same "platform" that Obama used in 2008 --- "vote for us, the other guy/party SUCKS!!"

By 2008 the vast majority of Americans were in fact convinced that the other guy/party did suck, and were willing to vote for a ham sandwich instead.

Non-Republicans don't feel that way towards Obama. They're uncertain whether the lingering bad economy should be blamed all, partly, or not at all on him because of the incredible pile of feces he inherited. They see progress in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc.

I was thinking the other day about how very few Presidents inherited such a bad situation. Lincoln and FDR came into worse situations. Reagan had one that was comparable. Not too many others. Truman's situation wasn't as bad day 1, but by day 300 was worse.

The American electorate may have somewhat longer memories than most tend to think.
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Old 09-07-2012, 10:05 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I have no idea. I agree with you that teleprompted oration is a strength of his though. I look forward to the debates where I think Obama expectations are far higher than they should be. He'd just not that good. In that setting, he's like a mediocre salesman who's trying to sell a flawed product. Romney, on the other hand, has had a lot of practice this year and I think he's improved considerably. Plus he'll have lessor expectations to meet.

Didn't Obama crush the entire Republican House caucus? Yeah, think he did.

I know Republicans like to paint Obama was inept away from his telepromptrs, but it's really not true.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/0..._n_442331.html

"So effective was the president that Fox News cut away from the broadcast 20 minutes before it ended."
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Old 09-07-2012, 10:15 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
This is really where the Republicans fail. You want to run on the same "platform" that Obama used in 2008 --- "vote for us, the other guy/party SUCKS!!"

By 2008 the vast majority of Americans were in fact convinced that the other guy/party did suck, and were willing to vote for a ham sandwich instead.

Non-Republicans don't feel that way towards Obama. They're uncertain whether the lingering bad economy should be blamed all, partly, or not at all on him because of the incredible pile of feces he inherited. They see progress in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc.

I was thinking the other day about how very few Presidents inherited such a bad situation. Lincoln and FDR came into worse situations. Reagan had one that was comparable. Not too many others. Truman's situation wasn't as bad day 1, but by day 300 was worse.

The American electorate may have somewhat longer memories than most tend to think.
I didn't say that. Personally, I'm glad that Mitt Romney showed courage by naming Paul Ryan as his running mate and thereby making entitlement reform a real issue in this race. But that doesn't change the fact that no one should even consider giving Barack Obama a second term given his massive failure of leadership over the past four years (not to mention the fact that he's now engaged in an effort to poison the very idea of entitlement reform).

One thing is for sure, if Barack Obama wins this November, he's going to inherit another terrible economy and an extremely divisive political environment that he won't be able to blame on anyone but himself. And the people who voted for him will deserve more of the same.
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Old 09-07-2012, 11:17 AM   #57
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It would surprise me if Obama lost this election.

Never thought I'd see our country have this happen - not in my lifetime. The way we were raised, our beliefs in what made the United States the greatest country in the world. It's just a sad day, a real tragedy.

R.I.P. U.S.A.

I hope I'm wrong.
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Old 09-07-2012, 11:38 AM   #58
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:33 PM   #59
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It would surprise me if Obama lost this election.

Never thought I'd see our country have this happen - not in my lifetime. The way we were raised, our beliefs in what made the United States the greatest country in the world. It's just a sad day, a real tragedy.

R.I.P. U.S.A.

I hope I'm wrong.
You been watching Chuck Norris?
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:38 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Those lean states from Obama are now all moving to the likely category with the exception of Florida, which is moving towards likely. Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia are all over 70% likelihood of being in the Obama column. Wisconsin has moved to an 80% probability of going Obama. North Carolina remains a lean state for Romney but is trending towards Obama. Arizona and even Indiana have moved out of the safe column for Romney. Montana and Missouri are also trending towards Obama. Despite many, including CNN, that consider Michigan to be a battleground state, 538 believes it is safe for Obama. That belief is probably shared by the Romney campaign as he is not advertising there. Most likely if he did then Obama would be able to bring out the fact that Romney is on record against the successful auto bailout.

On the whole the Obama campaign is now up to a 77.3% chance of winning with an average haul of 313 EC votes.

So whats the math for Romney? If he were to somehow flip every state that is less than 80% probability of going to Obama, he gets to 281 votes. He simply has to have Ohio in his column or he is not going to win. That's a pretty tall order. I would say maybe he should try to put Pennsylvania in play.
Didnt you watch Clinton? It's obvious that arthimitic is an issue for Republicans.

They have given up on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Romeny ad buys tell us what they are thinking of their chances. They have a shitload of money and still didnt buy in those states.

Do the arithmitic R's? Without those 3 states where's your path to 270?
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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