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Old 09-07-2012, 11:31 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is online now
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I'm pretty sure this is actually the most important election in my lifetime.

Forum's pretty slow today. Allow me to speed things up with a super-wide view of the current political landscape.

You can thank me later.

I never like the idea of saying "this is the most important election of my lifetime" because it feels to hyperbolic. The only time I actually felt that way was during 2004 in the middle of the Bush presidency, but the Bush presidency gave way to the Obama administration, which is starting to unwind a bunch of the things I considered the Bush administration to have screwed up (the wars, the recession, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, Medicare's financial unsustainability). So it's pretty clear I overreacted in 2004. If only I had been a ChiefsPlanet poster then so you all could mock me for it.

All the other elections just seemed to be very important, because you can do a lot of things in 4 years when you've got the White House on your side.

The reason I think this election is so important, however, is because I don't think this election is about the next four years. I think the next decade of policy rests on this election's shoulders.

Obama was and is a game changer, politically. He represents the nation's fresh breath of anti-neoconservativism that the nation felt it needed in 2008 after Bush. Obama is unabashedly liberal, but incredibly charismatic and likeable (hardcore conservatives don't feel this way, but I assure you the polling has always suggested that everybody else does). The moment we elected him to was huge, as well, putting him right behind the 8 ball with the wars and the economy, a situation which clearly set him up for an extremely difficult four years.

If he is able to win reelection, it's possible that this country could face a true electoral realignment of Reagan proportions (or maybe even greater) within the next decade, the realignment that Rove so desperately wanted for Bush in 2004 but failed to achieve. I'm talking about a realignment that fundamentally changes the way the vast majority of the population views these two political parties.

I've written about this a lot on this forum, but I predict that no matter who wins the election in 2012, unemployment will drop like a rock in 2014 as the job openings/job applicant mismatches start to vanish and the pool of applicants adapt to all the job openings. Again, this is despite Obama or Romney being President.

But assume it is Obama. Then you're talking about, at the conclusion of 2016, a presidency that would have presided over a gradual but successful recovery from the worst recession in our and our parents' lifetimes, withdrawals from both wars in the Middle East, the killing of OBL, the passing and now implementation of full healthcare reform, and at least three SCOTUS judges... Even without Republican cooperation in Obama's second term, all these things would happen, with the only significant question mark being the unemployment situation, which I do believe will recover like gangbusters in a couple years.

If all these things happen, the contrast of the past two decades will be unbelievably stark in 2016: you can do it the Democratic way, like the charistmatic and successful Obama and Clinton admistrations did, and preside over successful economies and sane foreign policy, or you can do it the Republican way, like... George W. Bush.

Combine that with the demographic changes this country will be going over the next decade (Texas could genuinely become a swing state by 2020, for starters), and I believe we could be facing a realignment.

I think this would be especially likely if Hillary were to run in 2016. Barring a complete shitfit, she couldn't lose, running on the records of Obama and Clinton, who would both extensively campaign for her, giving her a 3-to-1 advantage over whomever the Republicans trot out. Thinking of what she could accomplish in the wakes of what these two Presidents have laid for her in terms of policy foundations, is mind boggling.

The Republican Party, in the face of this, would absolutely have to evolve from their current exclusivity, their current regressive tax policies, and embrace something more inclusive, more moderate, and less reactionary. More conservative, less reactionary regressive. And then you'd finally have the post-Boomer conversation about the true value of liberalism and conservativism that this nation has lost since the Vietnam war embedded the Boomer population in a decades-long culture war. This development would change the entire dynamic, and provide those weird things like "hope" and "change" that we've ridiculed for five years.

On the other hand, what if the Republicans win? Romney/Ryan '12.

Most of Obama's accomplishments would obviously be trashed. Healthcare reform would either be outright repealed, or simply not enforced and de-fanged until it could no longer accomplish much of anything. The Democratic goal of bringing back the Clinton tax rates for the wealthy would be a thing of the past; in fact, Romney and Ryan would move the offensive forward, attempting to bring their tax rates down even lower. The landmark regulations for the financial industry passed under Obama would almost certainly be neutered to the point of irrelevancy, in particular Consumer Protection.

But even more than his policies, the idea of what Obama represented would be defeated. The idea of providing more for the less fortunate, for collectivism and the social safety net, would suffer irreperable harm as Romney and Ryan get to benefit from an employment boom in 2014, something they will understandably take credit for and the public will understandably reward them for, embedding in the public psyche the idea that regressive policies somehow accounted for all of this, and cementing trickle-down economics as vindicated once and for all.

And while Ryan seems very green now, assuming Romney wins reelection, Ryan would be a powerful candidate under this philosophy in 2020 running against whomever the Democrats could put up. By then, barring any huge screwups or scandals by the Romney administration, the conversation between conservativism and liberalism would almost certainly vanish, and instead be between conservativism and libertarian regressivism.

You're talking about two radically different futures for the next decade-plus, one with generational realignment possibilities in my opinion.

All of it sparked from one election.

That's why I think this could be the most important election in our lifetimes.

Thoughts?
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:05 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Paragraphs, please.
when you block copy from media matters or wherever, this is what you end up with....unless you put them in yourself I guess
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:11 PM   #32
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I don't see it. I thought the last one was more important than this one.

Whichever of these clowns gets elected, I don't see too much significance once way or the other. This isn't a "crossroads" election. It's vote for the guy who founded Obamacare, or vote for the guy who made it a national thing.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:16 PM   #33
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I was born in 1974. It was a cold day and I felt I needed to come out of the womb. Thank goodness I wasn't aborted but I wasn't. Yay. Day 1 was full of surprises. First there was light and then there were titties. Titties with milk!!!! ****ing Score!! I became bored on sucking one titty and then went to another. Ever since, I've considered myself a two titty man. Day 2 more titties and a strange brown substance came out of my backside. I thought it was yukky and I cried but when they came they all were glowing about it, saying crazy shit like, "Jeffrey made a poopy." I thought well hell, I like this attention so I went to crapping myself every chance I got. A policy I followed religiously until the cheers turned into jeers, but more on that later. At the end of day 2 I was worn out and the only thing that kept me going was some more milk from the titties. Little did I know that would be the last time I drank the titty milk. Day 3 started out great, the sun was shining and the birds were chirping, and then it happened. When it came time to drink from the titties, some old bitch with a mole on her nose stuffed a plastic ****ing thing in my mouth. I was like what the hell! This ain't no tittahs nor any tittah milk!!! This was bullshit, so I spit it up like mad, bad hell but to no avail. They resolved to put a small ring size titty in my mouth instead of the fake milk producing tittahs. I had had enough! I whined and I screamed and howled and then I got it. Titties are here one minute and gone the next. Best to be grateful and appreciative when they're in your mouth. Advice I still follow to this day.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:21 PM   #34
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It's sad to see such laziness from you guys. No one seems up to the task of arguing againt Derickshun's analysis; y'all just want to crack wise or be all like "you sure did write a lot" (which is sort of equivalent to saying "u mad?").

This is a political junkie conversation about demographics and generational strategy waiting to happen, but none of you are acting like you're political junkies here. Strange.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:24 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Reaper16 View Post
It's sad to see such laziness from you guys. No one seems up to the task of arguing againt Derickshun's analysis; y'all just want to crack wise or be all like "you sure did write a lot" (which is sort of equivalent to saying "u mad?").

This is a political junkie conversation about demographics and generational strategy waiting to happen, but none of you are acting like you're political junkies here. Strange.
It's more fun to just crack wise.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:25 PM   #36
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:26 PM   #37
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Reliance on federal govt. to take care of them is part of the reason a lot of people in CA are in the shitter.
CA is in the shitter because of unions and the fact that 75% of people here are politically ignorant.

Jerry Brown? Really?
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:26 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by Reaper16 View Post
It's sad to see such laziness from you guys. No one seems up to the task of arguing againt Derickshun's analysis; y'all just want to crack wise or be all like "you sure did write a lot" (which is sort of equivalent to saying "u mad?").

This is a political junkie conversation about demographics and generational strategy waiting to happen, but none of you are acting like you're political junkies here. Strange.
What's to argue about, honestly? It's a basically a long-winded "Romney sucks and Obama is great" piece. I already knew that Direckshun felt that way.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:28 PM   #39
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It's more fun to just crack wise.
True.

Which just reaffirms my thinking that people here in the D.C. subforum don't like to talk politics, they just like to talk about ideologies and support a winning team.

Very much like how a lot of ChiefsPlanet, homers mostly, doesn't actually like talking football.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:29 PM   #40
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What's to argue about, honestly? It's a basically a long-winded "Romney sucks and Obama is great" piece. I already knew that Direckshun felt that way.
It really isn't. Try reading it for what it is. Pretend Derekshun didn't write it if that helps.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:31 PM   #41
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It really isn't. Try reading it for what it is. Pretend Derekshun didn't write it if that helps.
Yes, it really is. Sorry.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:32 PM   #42
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:36 PM   #43
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Yes, it really is. Sorry.
You're an idiot, Donger. A plain idiot.

His post is obviously in support of Obama, and in support of the demographic and discourse changes that he analyzes will happen upon an Obama reelection. He's clearly not in favor of Romney winning. But that doesn't mean that the content of the post is simply "Romney sucks." Read the damn thing.
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Old 09-07-2012, 01:37 PM   #44
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You're an idiot, Donger. A plain idiot.
Feel better now?

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Old 09-07-2012, 01:41 PM   #45
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You're an idiot, Donger. A plain idiot.

His post is obviously in support of Obama, and in support of the demographic and discourse changes that he analyzes will happen upon an Obama reelection. He's clearly not in favor of Romney winning. But that doesn't mean that the content of the post is simply "Romney sucks." Read the damn thing.
I'm not sure I agree with the analysis 100%, but it seems interesting to talk about, as it'd be talking about -- predicting, really -- the ways in which each party's platforms and approaches will shift over the next decade.
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