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Old 09-07-2012, 11:31 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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I'm pretty sure this is actually the most important election in my lifetime.

Forum's pretty slow today. Allow me to speed things up with a super-wide view of the current political landscape.

You can thank me later.

I never like the idea of saying "this is the most important election of my lifetime" because it feels to hyperbolic. The only time I actually felt that way was during 2004 in the middle of the Bush presidency, but the Bush presidency gave way to the Obama administration, which is starting to unwind a bunch of the things I considered the Bush administration to have screwed up (the wars, the recession, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, Medicare's financial unsustainability). So it's pretty clear I overreacted in 2004. If only I had been a ChiefsPlanet poster then so you all could mock me for it.

All the other elections just seemed to be very important, because you can do a lot of things in 4 years when you've got the White House on your side.

The reason I think this election is so important, however, is because I don't think this election is about the next four years. I think the next decade of policy rests on this election's shoulders.

Obama was and is a game changer, politically. He represents the nation's fresh breath of anti-neoconservativism that the nation felt it needed in 2008 after Bush. Obama is unabashedly liberal, but incredibly charismatic and likeable (hardcore conservatives don't feel this way, but I assure you the polling has always suggested that everybody else does). The moment we elected him to was huge, as well, putting him right behind the 8 ball with the wars and the economy, a situation which clearly set him up for an extremely difficult four years.

If he is able to win reelection, it's possible that this country could face a true electoral realignment of Reagan proportions (or maybe even greater) within the next decade, the realignment that Rove so desperately wanted for Bush in 2004 but failed to achieve. I'm talking about a realignment that fundamentally changes the way the vast majority of the population views these two political parties.

I've written about this a lot on this forum, but I predict that no matter who wins the election in 2012, unemployment will drop like a rock in 2014 as the job openings/job applicant mismatches start to vanish and the pool of applicants adapt to all the job openings. Again, this is despite Obama or Romney being President.

But assume it is Obama. Then you're talking about, at the conclusion of 2016, a presidency that would have presided over a gradual but successful recovery from the worst recession in our and our parents' lifetimes, withdrawals from both wars in the Middle East, the killing of OBL, the passing and now implementation of full healthcare reform, and at least three SCOTUS judges... Even without Republican cooperation in Obama's second term, all these things would happen, with the only significant question mark being the unemployment situation, which I do believe will recover like gangbusters in a couple years.

If all these things happen, the contrast of the past two decades will be unbelievably stark in 2016: you can do it the Democratic way, like the charistmatic and successful Obama and Clinton admistrations did, and preside over successful economies and sane foreign policy, or you can do it the Republican way, like... George W. Bush.

Combine that with the demographic changes this country will be going over the next decade (Texas could genuinely become a swing state by 2020, for starters), and I believe we could be facing a realignment.

I think this would be especially likely if Hillary were to run in 2016. Barring a complete shitfit, she couldn't lose, running on the records of Obama and Clinton, who would both extensively campaign for her, giving her a 3-to-1 advantage over whomever the Republicans trot out. Thinking of what she could accomplish in the wakes of what these two Presidents have laid for her in terms of policy foundations, is mind boggling.

The Republican Party, in the face of this, would absolutely have to evolve from their current exclusivity, their current regressive tax policies, and embrace something more inclusive, more moderate, and less reactionary. More conservative, less reactionary regressive. And then you'd finally have the post-Boomer conversation about the true value of liberalism and conservativism that this nation has lost since the Vietnam war embedded the Boomer population in a decades-long culture war. This development would change the entire dynamic, and provide those weird things like "hope" and "change" that we've ridiculed for five years.

On the other hand, what if the Republicans win? Romney/Ryan '12.

Most of Obama's accomplishments would obviously be trashed. Healthcare reform would either be outright repealed, or simply not enforced and de-fanged until it could no longer accomplish much of anything. The Democratic goal of bringing back the Clinton tax rates for the wealthy would be a thing of the past; in fact, Romney and Ryan would move the offensive forward, attempting to bring their tax rates down even lower. The landmark regulations for the financial industry passed under Obama would almost certainly be neutered to the point of irrelevancy, in particular Consumer Protection.

But even more than his policies, the idea of what Obama represented would be defeated. The idea of providing more for the less fortunate, for collectivism and the social safety net, would suffer irreperable harm as Romney and Ryan get to benefit from an employment boom in 2014, something they will understandably take credit for and the public will understandably reward them for, embedding in the public psyche the idea that regressive policies somehow accounted for all of this, and cementing trickle-down economics as vindicated once and for all.

And while Ryan seems very green now, assuming Romney wins reelection, Ryan would be a powerful candidate under this philosophy in 2020 running against whomever the Democrats could put up. By then, barring any huge screwups or scandals by the Romney administration, the conversation between conservativism and liberalism would almost certainly vanish, and instead be between conservativism and libertarian regressivism.

You're talking about two radically different futures for the next decade-plus, one with generational realignment possibilities in my opinion.

All of it sparked from one election.

That's why I think this could be the most important election in our lifetimes.

Thoughts?
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Old 09-07-2012, 07:14 PM   #106
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I disagree. If Romney wins he wont get anything done. The Dems will fillibuster everything in the Senate just like they did to Obama. When Romney gets tired of not getting anything done, he will move his positions just like he always had in his past history.

The only part worrying me is the Supreme Court nominess. If the conservatives get a strong 6-4/7-3 majority they will go after every single social agenda that they have and tear this country apart.

My biggest vote was for Ronald Reagan. Jimmy Carter had to go. Who knows where we would have been if Carter had been re-elected.
If those nominees are truly strict constructionists, unlike John Roberts, those social issues would be sent back to the states. Even congress can remove certain types of cases from even being heard by SC. They just don't have the balls to do it.
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Old 09-07-2012, 07:23 PM   #107
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You have wayyyyyyyyy too much time on your hands. go out and get a job and get laid dude..lol..seriously?
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Old 09-07-2012, 07:27 PM   #108
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You have wayyyyyyyyy too much time on your hands. go out and get a job and get laid dude..lol..seriously?
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Old 09-07-2012, 07:32 PM   #109
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I disagree. If Romney wins he wont get anything done. The Dems will fillibuster everything in the Senate just like they did to Obama. When Romney gets tired of not getting anything done, he will move his positions just like he always had in his past history.

The only part worrying me is the Supreme Court nominess. If the conservatives get a strong 6-4/7-3 majority they will go after every single social agenda that they have and tear this country apart.

My biggest vote was for Ronald Reagan. Jimmy Carter had to go. Who knows where we would have been if Carter had been re-elected.
Tear this country apart? Why all the drama BRC? The country was split down the middle on Obamacare and it didn't split this country apart. Don't ask don't tell was repealed and it didn't split this country apart. We averted a global finacial meltdown and it didn't tear this country apart. Do you see where I am going here? We know Obama is your guy. No need for the tear our country apart fear tactics. I've noticed you around here more now that its election time. Kind of like 2008... Pushing that agenda. Pretty transparent if you ask me.
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:11 PM   #110
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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Tear this country apart? Why all the drama BRC? The country was split down the middle on Obamacare and it didn't split this country apart. Don't ask don't tell was repealed and it didn't split this country apart. We averted a global finacial meltdown and it didn't tear this country apart. Do you see where I am going here? We know Obama is your guy. No need for the tear our country apart fear tactics.
Obamacare hasnt done shit to this country. Nada, nothing, yet.

The financial meltdown was wall street bankers against everyone else.

How old are you DC? I lived through the social wars. That was a horrible time in USA.
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I've noticed you around here more now that its election time. Kind of like 2008... Pushing that agenda. Pretty transparent if you ask me.
nothing to do with the upcoming election. I just got permission.
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:14 PM   #111
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You have wayyyyyyyyy too much time on your hands. go out and get a job and get laid dude..lol..seriously?
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You are lazy pieces of shit. Not you two specifically, but everyone. The mindset that is being advocated here.

Direckshun's post is 2.25 pages in Microsoft Word, or 4 pages double-spaced. It's barely over 1,000 words. That isn't a whole lot of effort you lazy mother****ers. No one has "too much time" to write 1,000 words. ****ing middle schoolers can write 1,000 words. 1,000 words is not a lot.

Why the Hell are you even posting to a politics subforum if no subject is worth a paltry 1,000 words?

I'm ticked off because we just got done having a spat about how the level of discourse here in D.C. should be better or whatever. And here's a thread that should have sparked some worthwhile discussion. And instead we've got a bunch of bullshit, and me bitching about it. Yeah, Direckshun's biases are known. Newsflash: all of our biases are known on this board.

I don't actually believe that we're all just talking at each other on this board. There is some talking to each other. Some people's minds can be changed.

I mean, speaking personally, I've actually become more politically conservative in certain ways, thanks to this board, than I was when I joined. There can be real, valuable exchanges of ideas in this subforum. It's a shame that y'all think that it isn't worthwhile to try.
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:17 PM   #112
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The only part worrying me is the Supreme Court nominess. If the conservatives get a strong 6-4/7-3 majority they will go after every single social agenda that they have and tear this country apart.
Umm... that's not quite how the supreme court works
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:17 PM   #113
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I'm ticked off because we just got done having a spat about how the level of discourse here in D.C. should be better or whatever. And here's a thread that should have sparked some worthwhile discussion.
I dont think my thread has done anything for the discourse. I was basically told to and quit trying to be nice.
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:20 PM   #114
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Umm... that's not quite how the supreme court works
I mean the Republicans will make an all out effort to get their agenda in front of the court. The "activist" court says, you know those guys are rich ****ers but they are also right on this issue. Go ahead ban abortion and tell those sluts to buy their own birth control.
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:23 PM   #115
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You are lazy pieces of shit. Not you two specifically, but everyone. The mindset that is being advocated here.

Direckshun's post is 2.25 pages in Microsoft Word, or 4 pages double-spaced. It's barely over 1,000 words. That isn't a whole lot of effort you lazy mother****ers. No one has "too much time" to write 1,000 words. ****ing middle schoolers can write 1,000 words. 1,000 words is not a lot.

Why the Hell are you even posting to a politics subforum if no subject is worth a paltry 1,000 words?

I'm ticked off because we just got done having a spat about how the level of discourse here in D.C. should be better or whatever. And here's a thread that should have sparked some worthwhile discussion. And instead we've got a bunch of bullshit, and me bitching about it. Yeah, Direckshun's biases are known. Newsflash: all of our biases are known on this board.

I don't actually believe that we're all just talking at each other on this board. There is some talking to each other. Some people's minds can be changed.

I mean, speaking personally, I've actually become more politically conservative in certain ways, thanks to this board, than I was when I joined. There can be real, valuable exchanges of ideas in this subforum. It's a shame that y'all think that it isn't worthwhile to try.
Don't you get it? Everybody's lives are packed to the teeming brim with activities, meetings, and important shit 24/7. If guys aren't working, having sex, solving the world's problems, or doing "life" stuff, then they have no lives and must spend all ****ing day in their mothers basements typing out lengthy Chiefs Planet threads.

Because THEY'RE the ones with the great jobs and busy lives! Everyone else who posts here has no ****ing life. We're just killing time on Chiefs Planet until we die, and those 30 minutes spent writing out a nice-sized OP are all we do all day.

I've typed out football posts longer than this, but nobody ever got on my nuts about the length. Direckshun puts one of these out in the politics forum and everybody tells him he needs to be like them and spend their time doing important shit.

Like posting on Chiefs Planet.
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:25 PM   #116
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I mean the Republicans will make an all out effort to get their agenda in front of the court. The "activist" court says, you know those guys are rich ****ers but they are also right on this issue. Go ahead ban abortion and tell those sluts to buy their own birth control.
An abortion case already went to the Supreme Court. It was ruled that abortion is legal. So now it is.

What, do you think the Republicans will take their regressive agenda and ban abortion, then undo the ruling in Marbury v. Madison, thus turning the government upside down on its head?

WE CAN'T LET THAT HAPPEN
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:30 PM   #117
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I will give the liberals credit for one thing. They are really good at blaming other people for their mistakes and inadequacies.
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:31 PM   #118
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-07-2012, 11:32 PM   #119
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If those nominees are truly strict constructionists, unlike John Roberts, those social issues would be sent back to the states.
If everything is "sent back to the States", this country will resemble Europe in no time.

Mississipi won't have an abortion clinic in sight, Texas will be a conceal and carry state, California will legalize EVERYTHING, including illegal immigrants, and so on.

The Federal Government is what keeps this nation together.
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Old 09-07-2012, 11:56 PM   #120
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Unless Barry finds a way to create a couple million jobs in the next two months he's as good as done. Good thing he handed out those 2 million work visas to illegals, that should help him out.

You boy is toast because the country is in the shitter with a signfigant part due to his force feeding of government mandated health care and its effect on every business outside of health insurance.

Kiss black jimmy carter goodbye come November. He's an idealist, not a leader.
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