538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[Mr. Kotter]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Didnt you watch Clinton? It's obvious that arthimitic is an issue for Republicans.

They have given up on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Romeny ad buys tell us what they are thinking of their chances. They have a shitload of money and still didnt buy in those states.

Do the arithmitic R's? Without those 3 states where's your path to 270?

There is no "path"....without those three. They just haven't figured that out, yet.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by Inspector

R.I.P. U.S.A.

I hope I'm wrong.

No worries, you couldn't be more wrong.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter

There is no "path"....without those three. They just haven't figured that out, yet.

The Romney campaign has. 60 days out from an elections you put your money where you think your going to need to shore up your vote or a chance to win. Romney put zero $'s in his latest ad buy in those states and must have hired a publicist to get that news out.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter

There is no "path"....without those three. They just haven't figured that out, yet.

If Romeny were able to take Florida, Ohio, and VA, he could still pull it out out without any of those 3. A huge long shot, but not impossible.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by cdcox

If Romeny were able to take Florida, Ohio, and VA, he could still pull it out out without any of those 3. A huge long shot, but not impossible.

He's not going to take Ohio. Didnt you hear the republican govenor of ohio at the R convention extolling on how wonderful the Ohio economy is? 150,000 jobs directly attrributed to Obama saving GM. Then you add in the suppliers for those 150K new workers to assemble.... Thats going to be the difference.

And in Florida, Obama will flood the airwaves with they are going to kill medicare as we now it ads. Thats going to be close.

Obama will take Virgina because of the DC sububs are doing great and Virgina is doing great compared to other states.

The electrol arthimitic for the R's is just horrible this year. They should be wiping the floor when a president has an 8% unemployment collar around his neck.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by cdcox

If Romeny were able to take Florida, Ohio, and VA, he could still pull it out out without any of those 3. A huge long shot, but not impossible.

okay I went and created a map on this site:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

I gave Romney all the Mcain states and all these states below that Obama won last time

Ohio
Florida
Neveda
North Carolina
Iowa
Indiana

And he still loses.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

okay I went and created a map on this site:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

I gave Romney all the Mcain states and all these states below that Obama won last time

Ohio
Florida
Neveda
North Carolina
Iowa
Indiana

And he still loses.

I think NC and Indiana are already likely to be in Romney's column.

Nevada is likely going to go to Obama.

Ohio and VA are leaning strongly toward Obama. But if somehow Romney were to claw those into his column, then Obama could take NV, CO, IA, PA, WI, and MI as still lose.

I agree that the numbers look really bad for the Republicans. The whole race is leaning strongly toward Obama, but there are still many pathways toward a Romney victory. My guess is that Obama's biggest threat between now and November is the Romeny and Pac war chests. If Romeny can get off the defensive and unleash an onslaught of attack ads, will Obama be able to counter them with 2/3 of the money? I also think Romeny is going to have to do something substantial in getting his policy out, which so far he hasn't done. But there is still a lot of time.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I think NC and Indiana are already likely to be in Romney's column.

Nevada is likely going to go to Obama.

Ohio and VA are leaning strongly toward Obama. But if somehow Romney were to claw those into his column, then Obama could take NV, CO, IA, PA, WI, and MI as still lose.

I agree that the numbers look really bad for the Republicans. The whole race is leaning strongly toward Obama, but there are still many pathways toward a Romney victory. My guess is that Obama's biggest threat between now and November is the Romeny and Pac war chests. If Romeny can get off the defensive and unleash an onslaught of attack ads, will Obama be able to counter them with 2/3 of the money? I also think Romeny is going to have to do something substantial in getting his policy out, which so far he hasn't done. But there is still a lot of time.

Every plausible path for Romney must have Ohio, Florida and Virgina. Romeny will not take Ohio.

Sept. 7: Polls Find Hints of Obama Convention Bounce

By NATE SILVER

The three national tracking polls that were published on Friday all moved toward President Obama, probably reflecting momentum from the Democratic convention.

In the Gallup national tracking poll, Mr. Obama moved into a three-point lead over Mitt Romney, up from one point on Thursday.

What’s a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallup’s reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted before the major speeches at the Democratic convention.
In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own.

Gallup’s approval ratings, however, are published over a three-day window, meaning that they will be quicker to respond to shifts in opinion. Mr. Obama’s approval ratings shot up to 52 percent in the version of poll published on Friday, while his disapproval ratings declined to 43 percent. The FiveThirtyEight forecast model does not use approval ratings directly, but this is a sign that there could be more good news for Mr. Obama in the head-to-head portion of the poll in the days ahead. Read more…

[cdcox]

Romeny needs Florida and either Ohio or VA. If he can achieve that, the race will be wisker close. Without having Florida plus either Ohio or VA, its over. The thing is, its plausible that Romney may not take any of those states.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by patteeu

No one should even need to hear what Romney is about given the obvious failure we've experienced for the past 4 years. There's no excuse for giving a vote to Barack Obama in 2012.

People like you shouldn't be allowed to vote, at all.

[RubberSponge]

Originally Posted by Inspector

It would surprise me if Obama lost this election.

Never thought I'd see our country have this happen - not in my lifetime. The way we were raised, our beliefs in what made the United States the greatest country in the world. It's just a sad day, a real tragedy.

R.I.P. U.S.A.

I hope I'm wrong.

Can't help but laugh at the people who make statements like the one above.

Apocalyptic mentality, drama queen, imaginary reality, historical amnesia... whatever you want to call it is pure comedy gold.

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

He's not going to take Ohio.

Ohio voters in 2010 were angry at the president and at Democrats, and they showed it in voting booths: Republicans swept every statewide
office, defeating a sitting governor and four other incumbent executives, adding 13 seats in the Ohio House and two in the Ohio
Senate.

On the federal level, Ohio Republicans defeated five incumbent Democrats, winning 13 of 18 U.S. House seats and helping to make Ohio's
John Boehner the next House Speaker.

Republicans also retained a U.S. Senate seat by electing Rob Portman, and they scored a 77 percent success rate in down-ballot county races.

Yeah, but I'm sure all those voters can't wait to re-elect Jughead.

B.O is doing a great job, if you like that America is now fighting for third-world status.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

Ohio voters in 2010 were angry at the president and at Democrats, and they showed it in voting booths: Republicans swept every statewide
office, defeating a sitting governor and four other incumbent executives, adding 13 seats in the Ohio House and two in the Ohio
Senate.

On the federal level, Ohio Republicans defeated five incumbent Democrats, winning 13 of 18 U.S. House seats and helping to make Ohio's
John Boehner the next House Speaker.

Republicans also retained a U.S. Senate seat by electing Rob Portman, and they scored a 77 percent success rate in down-ballot county races.

Yeah, but I'm sure all those voters can't wait to re-elect Jughead.

B.O is doing a great job, if you like that America is now fighting for third-world status.

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

B.O is doing a great job, if you like that America is now fighting for third-world status.

FTR, I dont think Obama is doing a great job. If the R's would have come up with an idea other than tax cuts weighed heavily to favor the rich and quit trying to dictate personal choices to its citzens, I might have considered voting as I did for 12 years of my life.

I really dont see us fighting for 3rd world status. Can you provide some examples of this?

If you are shitsprayer or shitsprayer is reading this and its true you joined the army to serve............ That is a serious stand up act in support of your country. Major respect and props are due.

[|Zach|]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Didn't Obama crush the entire Republican House caucus? Yeah, think he did.

I know Republicans like to paint Obama was inept away from his telepromptrs, but it's really not true.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/0..._n_442331.html

"So effective was the president that Fox News cut away from the broadcast 20 minutes before it ended."

Pointed this out to WV when he was blabbing about how Obama was a poor debator. Of course he put his head in the sand.

[|Zach|]

Originally Posted by Inspector

It would surprise me if Obama lost this election.

Never thought I'd see our country have this happen - not in my lifetime. The way we were raised, our beliefs in what made the United States the greatest country in the world. It's just a sad day, a real tragedy.

R.I.P. U.S.A.

I hope I'm wrong.

You shape your own life.

Get this dramatic bullshit out of here.