538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[-King-]

Originally Posted by Inspector

It would surprise me if Obama lost this election.

Never thought I'd see our country have this happen - not in my lifetime. The way we were raised, our beliefs in what made the United States the greatest country in the world. It's just a sad day, a real tragedy.

R.I.P. U.S.A.

I hope I'm wrong.

So are you going to leave the country and escape this sinking ship?
Posted via Mobile Device

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I think NC and Indiana are already likely to be in Romney's column.

Nevada is likely going to go to Obama.

Ohio and VA are leaning strongly toward Obama. But if somehow Romney were to claw those into his column, then Obama could take NV, CO, IA, PA, WI, and MI as still lose.

I agree that the numbers look really bad for the Republicans. The whole race is leaning strongly toward Obama, but there are still many pathways toward a Romney victory. My guess is that Obama's biggest threat between now and November is the Romeny and Pac war chests. If Romeny can get off the defensive and unleash an onslaught of attack ads, will Obama be able to counter them with 2/3 of the money? I also think Romeny is going to have to do something substantial in getting his policy out, which so far he hasn't done. But there is still a lot of time.

Ohio "strongly" leaning? What?

I think the darkest stastic for Republicans at this juncture is that there is near-zero undecideds.

[Hoover]

Love Nate Silver's work even when I don't like the conclusions.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Ohio "strongly" leaning? What?

I think the darkest stastic for Republicans at this juncture is that there is near-zero undecideds.

fivethirtyeight gives Obama a 73% chance of taking Ohio. In football that would be a 6.5 point spread.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Hoover

Love Nate Silver's work even when I don't like the conclusions.

He is one of the few invaluable voices to political conversation.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Hoover

Love Nate Silver's work even when I don't like the conclusions.

Hoover I know your a smart man. You are involved in politics and follow it closely.

You have seen the trending numbers. Texas could go blue as early as 2016 because of the numbers of Latinos and the 65/35 split favoring the Dems. If that happens the Dem's would start with Cali/NY/Tx and its 122 EC in their pocket. The R's cant make that up.

How can the republicans make up for the downward trending demograpics? Surely you dont think going farther to the right is the solution?

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Didnt you watch Clinton? It's obvious that arthimitic is an issue for Republicans.

They have given up on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Romeny ad buys tell us what they are thinking of their chances. They have a shitload of money and still didnt buy in those states.

Do the arithmitic R's? Without those 3 states where's your path to 270?

Romney currently has a base of 191 EC that are safe or leaning. Add to those:

Florida
North Carolina
Virginia
Ohio
Iowa
Colorado

That's 281 EC. If he loses any of those states he loses the election. North Carolina is leaning Romney but trending to Obama. Florida is leaning Obama. The other states 538 gives Obama a better than 70% chance to win. Every other state has at least an 80% probability towards one candidate. I'll be interested to see the updates after the convention bounce and economic indicators have been included. We may need to wait a week for that.

At the beginning of the RNC convention 538 had Obama with a 69% probability. In the 11 days since the probability has risen now to 78%.

[Bo's Pelini]

It's over Pat, Saul, Donger, etc. those guys all picked another guy to get his handed to him by Obama. Those guys are great at picking losers.

[whoman69]

IMO Romney's ceiling is 235 EC. Its more likely that Obama ends up with over 330 EC. The race may be closer than 2008, but its Obama's to lose.

I don't think many Americans trust Romney.

[Aries Walker]

I also don't think many Americans trust the Republican party. There are a lot of Republicans who feel abandoned because it's moved so far right, and is so beholden to the fringe. I can't think of a time since Reconstruction when one party was so controlled by its extremes. It will be interesting to see if it "course-corrects" and becomes more centrist, or whether it splits into two separate parties.

[whoman69]

Today's update puts the election at a 79.8% chance of an Obama victory. All of the battleground states are trending toward Obama. Arizona, Indiana, Missouri are no longer safe states for Romney. Ohio has just moved into the likely category, meaning that 538 gives him a 75% chance to take that state. Nightmare scenario for Romney could be 382 EC for Obama.

[cdcox]

There is still a lot of time left. As I said earlier, I think Romeny and friends will tighten the race via a barrage of attack ads in the battle ground states. I think Romeny could also help himself with independents by spelling out the details of some of his plans in the debates and on the stump, or even with some special buys of TV time.

[Aries Walker]

Exactly. We're still two months out (not to mention still basking in the glow of the conventions). Unlike every other election in the history of the Republic, Romney's side has functionally unlimited money, and he (or his Super PAC's) could drop a staggering amount of air time on those battleground states in the last few weeks. They may change minds, they may not; there's so much new about this one that things could change right up until the end.

That said, I don't think they will enough to keep Obama from winning, but the point still stands.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

Exactly. We're still two months out (not to mention still basking in the glow of the conventions). Unlike every other election in the history of the Republic, Romney's side has functionally unlimited money, and he (or his Super PAC's) could drop a staggering amount of air time on those battleground states in the last few weeks. They may change minds, they may not; there's so much new about this one that things could change right up until the end.

That said, I don't think they will enough to keep Obama from winning, but the point still stands.

The undecideds are at like 7-8% now. Not a lot of chance there to make up ground. And Silver takes all the points in your post and incorperates them in this prediction model.

[Aries Walker]

Well, he's the professional. I guess we'll find out soon enough.