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Old 09-07-2012, 11:31 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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I'm pretty sure this is actually the most important election in my lifetime.

Forum's pretty slow today. Allow me to speed things up with a super-wide view of the current political landscape.

You can thank me later.

I never like the idea of saying "this is the most important election of my lifetime" because it feels to hyperbolic. The only time I actually felt that way was during 2004 in the middle of the Bush presidency, but the Bush presidency gave way to the Obama administration, which is starting to unwind a bunch of the things I considered the Bush administration to have screwed up (the wars, the recession, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, Medicare's financial unsustainability). So it's pretty clear I overreacted in 2004. If only I had been a ChiefsPlanet poster then so you all could mock me for it.

All the other elections just seemed to be very important, because you can do a lot of things in 4 years when you've got the White House on your side.

The reason I think this election is so important, however, is because I don't think this election is about the next four years. I think the next decade of policy rests on this election's shoulders.

Obama was and is a game changer, politically. He represents the nation's fresh breath of anti-neoconservativism that the nation felt it needed in 2008 after Bush. Obama is unabashedly liberal, but incredibly charismatic and likeable (hardcore conservatives don't feel this way, but I assure you the polling has always suggested that everybody else does). The moment we elected him to was huge, as well, putting him right behind the 8 ball with the wars and the economy, a situation which clearly set him up for an extremely difficult four years.

If he is able to win reelection, it's possible that this country could face a true electoral realignment of Reagan proportions (or maybe even greater) within the next decade, the realignment that Rove so desperately wanted for Bush in 2004 but failed to achieve. I'm talking about a realignment that fundamentally changes the way the vast majority of the population views these two political parties.

I've written about this a lot on this forum, but I predict that no matter who wins the election in 2012, unemployment will drop like a rock in 2014 as the job openings/job applicant mismatches start to vanish and the pool of applicants adapt to all the job openings. Again, this is despite Obama or Romney being President.

But assume it is Obama. Then you're talking about, at the conclusion of 2016, a presidency that would have presided over a gradual but successful recovery from the worst recession in our and our parents' lifetimes, withdrawals from both wars in the Middle East, the killing of OBL, the passing and now implementation of full healthcare reform, and at least three SCOTUS judges... Even without Republican cooperation in Obama's second term, all these things would happen, with the only significant question mark being the unemployment situation, which I do believe will recover like gangbusters in a couple years.

If all these things happen, the contrast of the past two decades will be unbelievably stark in 2016: you can do it the Democratic way, like the charistmatic and successful Obama and Clinton admistrations did, and preside over successful economies and sane foreign policy, or you can do it the Republican way, like... George W. Bush.

Combine that with the demographic changes this country will be going over the next decade (Texas could genuinely become a swing state by 2020, for starters), and I believe we could be facing a realignment.

I think this would be especially likely if Hillary were to run in 2016. Barring a complete shitfit, she couldn't lose, running on the records of Obama and Clinton, who would both extensively campaign for her, giving her a 3-to-1 advantage over whomever the Republicans trot out. Thinking of what she could accomplish in the wakes of what these two Presidents have laid for her in terms of policy foundations, is mind boggling.

The Republican Party, in the face of this, would absolutely have to evolve from their current exclusivity, their current regressive tax policies, and embrace something more inclusive, more moderate, and less reactionary. More conservative, less reactionary regressive. And then you'd finally have the post-Boomer conversation about the true value of liberalism and conservativism that this nation has lost since the Vietnam war embedded the Boomer population in a decades-long culture war. This development would change the entire dynamic, and provide those weird things like "hope" and "change" that we've ridiculed for five years.

On the other hand, what if the Republicans win? Romney/Ryan '12.

Most of Obama's accomplishments would obviously be trashed. Healthcare reform would either be outright repealed, or simply not enforced and de-fanged until it could no longer accomplish much of anything. The Democratic goal of bringing back the Clinton tax rates for the wealthy would be a thing of the past; in fact, Romney and Ryan would move the offensive forward, attempting to bring their tax rates down even lower. The landmark regulations for the financial industry passed under Obama would almost certainly be neutered to the point of irrelevancy, in particular Consumer Protection.

But even more than his policies, the idea of what Obama represented would be defeated. The idea of providing more for the less fortunate, for collectivism and the social safety net, would suffer irreperable harm as Romney and Ryan get to benefit from an employment boom in 2014, something they will understandably take credit for and the public will understandably reward them for, embedding in the public psyche the idea that regressive policies somehow accounted for all of this, and cementing trickle-down economics as vindicated once and for all.

And while Ryan seems very green now, assuming Romney wins reelection, Ryan would be a powerful candidate under this philosophy in 2020 running against whomever the Democrats could put up. By then, barring any huge screwups or scandals by the Romney administration, the conversation between conservativism and liberalism would almost certainly vanish, and instead be between conservativism and libertarian regressivism.

You're talking about two radically different futures for the next decade-plus, one with generational realignment possibilities in my opinion.

All of it sparked from one election.

That's why I think this could be the most important election in our lifetimes.

Thoughts?
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:20 AM   #256
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Why are you so obsessed with getting personal information from people? You want to report me to the Stasi? My local block leader?

I'll tell you what Dane, I'll meet anybody on this board face to face any time.

I don't say nothing here I wouldn't say to your face.

As for putting personal information out there, I already got burned once by one of you spineless moonbats, which is all you want to do because like KC Rectum, you're a ****ing scumbag, too.

Does that answer your question? Good. Now go **** yourself.
Scumbag?

I pity you and your life that you can so callously dismiss fellow Americans.

You should be ashamed of yourself.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:23 AM   #257
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
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Originally Posted by DaneMcClown View Post
Scumbag?

I pity you and your life that you can so callously dismiss fellow Americans.

You should be ashamed of yourself.
Only a scumbag would continuously demand personal information from somebody on an internet MB that you don't even like. Like I'm really going to share that with you.

How about you tell us about your Ex-wife?
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:28 AM   #258
KILLER_CLOWN KILLER_CLOWN is offline
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I would say this is the most useless election in my lifetime, there really isn't one guy that is better than the other.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:41 AM   #259
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Only a scumbag would continuously demand personal information from somebody on an internet MB that you don't even like. Like I'm really going to share that with you.

How about you tell us about your Ex-wife?

You're afraid to share any info because once its revealed that you're an uneducated moron living in your grandmother's home, you will lose creditbility.

Trust me, you have nothing to lose.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:50 AM   #260
AustinChief AustinChief is online now
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Why? Why should the GSEs, which are profit seeking corporations, be held to a different standard?
Because that is the expectation of a GSE. Otherwise they would be purely private. It's part of the implicit arrangement with the government.

Regarding the post prior to this... it isn't just a random "financial scandal." They are being sued specifically for distorting their figures on subprime. We know they lied we just don't know to what extent.. and for how long. We probably will never get the entire truth.

You are correct that their motivation was profits not the CRA. The CRA stuff is a red herring. I just haven't seen any convincing evidence otherwise. I can see how the THEORY that the CRA would be at fault could be true... but the numbers and reality just don't seem to support that. One thing though, there WAS a lot of talk about the CRA and using it as an EXCUSE for bad behavior. That doesn't make it a cause.. it just distorted the issue and was a way to get certain politicians to sign off on Fannie and Freddie's bad behavior and even was used to placate people regarding GLB. (This goes back all the way to the early 90s)
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:00 AM   #261
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
You're afraid to share any info because once its revealed that you're an uneducated moron living in your grandmother's home, you will lose creditbility.

Trust me, you have nothing to lose.
Did your ex-wife remarry?
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:02 AM   #262
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Only a scumbag would continuously demand personal information from somebody on an internet MB that you don't even like. Like I'm really going to share that with you.

How about you tell us about your Ex-wife?
Ex-wife? I'm 46 years old and have been with my wife for nearly 17 years.

What the **** is wrong with you, beside the obvious?
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:04 AM   #263
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Ex-wife? I'm 46 years old and have been with my wife for nearly 17 years.

What the **** is wrong with you, beside the obvious?
I'm getting personal information out of you.

So...

Your wife... she a good cook? What's her name? Who is her employer?What's her social security number?
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:11 AM   #264
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
I'm getting personal information out of you.

So...

Your wife... she a good cook? What's her name? Who is her employer?What's her social security number?
Dude, anyone that's ever wanted to become Facebook friends, come to my home, etc, has always been welcome. I only keep my info "hidden" due to people like you.

For the record, she doesn't cook, has a degree in mathematics and another in Econ from UCLA, is an entrepreneur with two successful start ups and also works for one one of the worlds largest multinational corporations, in addition to giving birth five weeks go. She's currently three pounds above her Pre-pregnancy weight.

Any more questions?
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:23 AM   #265
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
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Dude, anyone that's ever wanted to become Facebook friends, come to my home, etc, has always been welcome. I only keep my info "hidden" due to people like you.
I don't get that. I'm not the one digging into other peoples personal business, you are.

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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
For the record, she doesn't cook
Who cooks your meals?
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:27 AM   #266
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post

Who cooks your meals?
Who cooks my meals?



What is this, the '50's?
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:34 AM   #267
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
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Who cooks my meals?



What is this, the '50's?
Do you cook?
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:40 AM   #268
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Do you cook?
Of course I cook. I'm a man.

If you can't fire up the grill and make kickass burgers, steak, chicken, veggies and fish, or make awesome salads, scrambled eggs, huevos rancheros, pancakes, waffles, chicken or tuna salad, let alone steak, chicken or ground beef tacos and/or chili, just to name a few, you are NOT a man.

Are you a man? I'm guessing the answer is no.
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:41 AM   #269
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Of course I cook. I'm a man.

If you can't fire up the grill and make kickass burgers, steak, chicken, veggies and fish, or make awesome salads, scrambled eggs, huevos rancheros, pancakes, waffles, chicken or tuna salad, let alone steak, chicken or ground beef tacos and/or chili, just to name a few, you are NOT a man.

Are you a man? I'm guessing the answer is no.
So you cook breakfast, lunch and dinner every day for you and your family?
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:47 AM   #270
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
So you cook breakfast, lunch and dinner every day for you and your family?
We're usually on completely different schedules these days. I take care of myself and my oldest and my wife tends for herself and the five week old.

Once she's back to work, we'll have nanny/housekeeper/cook for the next few years. But I'll do meals on the weekends, when I feel like it.

Why all the food questions?
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