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Old 09-07-2012, 11:31 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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I'm pretty sure this is actually the most important election in my lifetime.

Forum's pretty slow today. Allow me to speed things up with a super-wide view of the current political landscape.

You can thank me later.

I never like the idea of saying "this is the most important election of my lifetime" because it feels to hyperbolic. The only time I actually felt that way was during 2004 in the middle of the Bush presidency, but the Bush presidency gave way to the Obama administration, which is starting to unwind a bunch of the things I considered the Bush administration to have screwed up (the wars, the recession, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, Medicare's financial unsustainability). So it's pretty clear I overreacted in 2004. If only I had been a ChiefsPlanet poster then so you all could mock me for it.

All the other elections just seemed to be very important, because you can do a lot of things in 4 years when you've got the White House on your side.

The reason I think this election is so important, however, is because I don't think this election is about the next four years. I think the next decade of policy rests on this election's shoulders.

Obama was and is a game changer, politically. He represents the nation's fresh breath of anti-neoconservativism that the nation felt it needed in 2008 after Bush. Obama is unabashedly liberal, but incredibly charismatic and likeable (hardcore conservatives don't feel this way, but I assure you the polling has always suggested that everybody else does). The moment we elected him to was huge, as well, putting him right behind the 8 ball with the wars and the economy, a situation which clearly set him up for an extremely difficult four years.

If he is able to win reelection, it's possible that this country could face a true electoral realignment of Reagan proportions (or maybe even greater) within the next decade, the realignment that Rove so desperately wanted for Bush in 2004 but failed to achieve. I'm talking about a realignment that fundamentally changes the way the vast majority of the population views these two political parties.

I've written about this a lot on this forum, but I predict that no matter who wins the election in 2012, unemployment will drop like a rock in 2014 as the job openings/job applicant mismatches start to vanish and the pool of applicants adapt to all the job openings. Again, this is despite Obama or Romney being President.

But assume it is Obama. Then you're talking about, at the conclusion of 2016, a presidency that would have presided over a gradual but successful recovery from the worst recession in our and our parents' lifetimes, withdrawals from both wars in the Middle East, the killing of OBL, the passing and now implementation of full healthcare reform, and at least three SCOTUS judges... Even without Republican cooperation in Obama's second term, all these things would happen, with the only significant question mark being the unemployment situation, which I do believe will recover like gangbusters in a couple years.

If all these things happen, the contrast of the past two decades will be unbelievably stark in 2016: you can do it the Democratic way, like the charistmatic and successful Obama and Clinton admistrations did, and preside over successful economies and sane foreign policy, or you can do it the Republican way, like... George W. Bush.

Combine that with the demographic changes this country will be going over the next decade (Texas could genuinely become a swing state by 2020, for starters), and I believe we could be facing a realignment.

I think this would be especially likely if Hillary were to run in 2016. Barring a complete shitfit, she couldn't lose, running on the records of Obama and Clinton, who would both extensively campaign for her, giving her a 3-to-1 advantage over whomever the Republicans trot out. Thinking of what she could accomplish in the wakes of what these two Presidents have laid for her in terms of policy foundations, is mind boggling.

The Republican Party, in the face of this, would absolutely have to evolve from their current exclusivity, their current regressive tax policies, and embrace something more inclusive, more moderate, and less reactionary. More conservative, less reactionary regressive. And then you'd finally have the post-Boomer conversation about the true value of liberalism and conservativism that this nation has lost since the Vietnam war embedded the Boomer population in a decades-long culture war. This development would change the entire dynamic, and provide those weird things like "hope" and "change" that we've ridiculed for five years.

On the other hand, what if the Republicans win? Romney/Ryan '12.

Most of Obama's accomplishments would obviously be trashed. Healthcare reform would either be outright repealed, or simply not enforced and de-fanged until it could no longer accomplish much of anything. The Democratic goal of bringing back the Clinton tax rates for the wealthy would be a thing of the past; in fact, Romney and Ryan would move the offensive forward, attempting to bring their tax rates down even lower. The landmark regulations for the financial industry passed under Obama would almost certainly be neutered to the point of irrelevancy, in particular Consumer Protection.

But even more than his policies, the idea of what Obama represented would be defeated. The idea of providing more for the less fortunate, for collectivism and the social safety net, would suffer irreperable harm as Romney and Ryan get to benefit from an employment boom in 2014, something they will understandably take credit for and the public will understandably reward them for, embedding in the public psyche the idea that regressive policies somehow accounted for all of this, and cementing trickle-down economics as vindicated once and for all.

And while Ryan seems very green now, assuming Romney wins reelection, Ryan would be a powerful candidate under this philosophy in 2020 running against whomever the Democrats could put up. By then, barring any huge screwups or scandals by the Romney administration, the conversation between conservativism and liberalism would almost certainly vanish, and instead be between conservativism and libertarian regressivism.

You're talking about two radically different futures for the next decade-plus, one with generational realignment possibilities in my opinion.

All of it sparked from one election.

That's why I think this could be the most important election in our lifetimes.

Thoughts?
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:56 AM   #271
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
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We're usually on completely different schedules these days. I take care of myself and my oldest and my wife tends for herself and the five week old.

Once she's back to work, we'll have nanny/housekeeper/cook for the next few years. But I'll do meals on the weekends, when I feel like it.

Why all the food questions?
Just making conversation.

My wife is an awesome cook, by the way.
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Old 09-10-2012, 03:02 AM   #272
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Just making conversation.

My wife is an awesome cook, by the way.
Well, if You ever want THE best recipe for Sicilian sauce and meatballs, PM me. It's generations old and awesome.

Palermo-style.
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Old 09-10-2012, 09:44 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
That's what I thought, you are a lying scumbag.

Bitch, learn how to read i cited two examples in one post. Seriously, swallow a mouthful of buckshot.
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I'm just a little pussy from Iowa
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Old 09-10-2012, 10:09 AM   #274
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Well, if You ever want THE best recipe for Sicilian sauce and meatballs, PM me. It's generations old and awesome.

Palermo-style.
If serious I'd be grateful for the recipe. My grandmother's people came over from the Boot, I loves me some Italian.
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Old 09-10-2012, 12:51 PM   #275
patteeu patteeu is offline
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How does that make it any better? If you're getting screwed, at least you can take comfort that right now they "only" plan to screw you for five years?

That is an extremely weak defense of a bad policy.
It's like rape. At least you aren't going to end up married to the guy, so just relax.
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Old 09-10-2012, 12:54 PM   #276
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It's like rape. At least you aren't going to end up married to the guy, so just relax.
.............
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Old 09-10-2012, 12:54 PM   #277
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It's like rape. At least you aren't going to end up married to the guy, so just relax.
If only that were true. If Obama wins in November, it will be time go shopping for the wedding ring.
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Old 09-10-2012, 12:57 PM   #278
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I disagree. You seem to state fannie and freddie and the dems created the realestate bubble like its fact. It's gravity. It's Hitler started WWII. And thats just not true. It's not accepted scientific fact.

From this month:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...crisis/250121/

Academic economic profiessors posted on the WSJ circa 2010:
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/...ancial-crisis/

Washington post about the big lie:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...OqM_story.html

You can google it yourself.

I'm not going to go on and on about this but your "facts" are not "facts" they are conclusions. And it seems that Republicans and anyone who hates anything realted to government are the ones subscribing to these "facts" when they are nothing but an individual or groups conclusion.
I disagree. You seem to state that Bush was raping babies and enslaving black people as if it's a fact. It's not. Google it yourself.

I'm really not sure what on earth you're talking about, but you seem to be trying desperately to put words into my mouth.

Here's the bottom line for me. Bush tax cuts didn't cause (or even have much to do with) the recession. The housing/banking crisis was caused by both parties. You've agreed to the latter (so I'm not sure why you're now harping on about that) and you don't seem to understand the former.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:04 PM   #279
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Scumbag?

I pity you and your life that you can so callously dismiss fellow Americans.

You should be ashamed of yourself.
Don't you do exactly the same thing when the mood strikes? Do you suffer from multiple personality disorder, Dane?
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:05 PM   #280
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Don't you do exactly the same thing when the mood strikes? Do you suffer from multiple personality disorder, Dane?
Who do I call out, besides you, Pat?

You're a phony. You're disingenuous, condescending and closed minded. Other than you and him, I don't really have a problem with anyone in this forum.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:07 PM   #281
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If serious I'd be grateful for the recipe. My grandmother's people came over from the Boot, I loves me some Italian.
Ditto. Post the recipe, Dane. I'll try it out too.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:12 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Who do I call out, besides you, Pat?

You're a phony. You're disingenuous, condescending and closed minded. Other than you and him, I don't really have a problem with anyone in this forum.
So it's OK, as long as you limit your targets to whatever criteria you're basing *your* outbursts on?

I remember one time a long time ago when I used a curse word in a post (I don't remember which one, maybe I told someone they were a "****ing moron" or something). And I got this rep message from Dane McCloud telling me how I shouldn't curse because it lessens the power of my posts or something along those lines. I've often reflected on the irony of that rep comment in the years since. FWIW, I don't have a problem with you, but I think it's hilarious how you respond to my most basic of challenging questions with little more than a after finding out that I won't swallow your BS just because it's stated with confidence.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:20 PM   #283
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
So it's OK, as long as you limit your targets to whatever criteria you're basing *your* outbursts on?
What is okay?

I've already explained this, Pat: I lost all respect for you in the Todd Akin thread. Before that, I thought you were an intelligent person yet very partisan, which is fine. But after your comments there, I was left in utter disbelief. I still don't get how an intelligent person can believe the things you do, especially how the economy is more important than a woman's right to chose, even in the case of rape or incest.

That's assclownery at its finest.

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I remember one time a long time ago when I used a curse word in a post (I don't remember which one, maybe I told someone they were a "****ing moron" or something). And I got this rep message from Dane McCloud telling me how I shouldn't curse because it lessens the power of my posts or something along those lines. I've often reflected on the irony of that rep comment in the years since.
Well, that was back when I respected you and your opinion. I don't know what's happened since that time to make you go full retard, but I don't believe and don't trust anything you say because it's like every response is copied and pasted verbatim from some ultra conservative internet Op-Ed.

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FWIW, I don't have a problem with you, but I think it's hilarious how you respond to my most basic of challenging questions with little more than a after finding out that I won't swallow your BS just because it's stated with confidence.
It's stated with confidence because I state my beliefs, which are not based on the media or Fox News or MSNBC or various ultra-left and ultra-right websites. I don't watch any political news channels, nor do I hunt on the internet for shit to throw in people's faces.

I guess that's why it's so hard for some people to understand why I vote Republican for state and local elections and Democrat on a national scale the past election (and likely, this year). I'm not some ****ing automaton.

Last edited by DaneMcCloud; 09-10-2012 at 01:43 PM.. Reason: lost train of thought because of a phone call
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:38 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Well, if You ever want THE best recipe for Sicilian sauce and meatballs, PM me. It's generations old and awesome.

Palermo-style.
PM sent. Would love to get the recipe. Thanks!
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:08 PM   #285
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
What is okay?

I've already explained this, Pat: I lost all respect for you in the Todd Akin thread. Before that, I thought you were an intelligent person yet very partisan, which is fine. But after your comments there, I was left in utter disbelief. I still don't get how an intelligent person can believe the things you do, especially how the economy is more important than a woman's right to chose, even in the case of rape or incest.

That's assclownery at its finest.
I pity you and your life that you can so callously dismiss fellow Americans.

You should be ashamed of yourself.

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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Well, that was back when I respected you and your opinion. I don't know what's happened since that time to make you go full retard, but I don't believe and don't trust anything you say because it's like every response is copied and pasted verbatim from some ultra conservative internet Op-Ed.
You missed the point of the story. It's about the irony and apparent obliviousness with which you regularly do that which you suggest shouldn't be done.

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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
It's stated with confidence because I state my beliefs, which are not based on the media or Fox News or MSNBC or various ultra-left and ultra-right websites. I don't watch any political news channels, nor do I hunt on the internet for shit to throw in people's faces.

I guess that's why it's so hard for some people to understand why I vote Republican for state and local elections and Democrat on a national scale the past election (and likely, this year). I'm not some ****ing automaton.
I suspect that it's stated with confidence because you don't understand how full of holes your arguments usually are. But I'm open to the possibility that you do recognize this and you've just learned that if you say something with confidence you can sometimes bluff your way through.
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