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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 09-11-2012, 02:09 PM   #121
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Re-write history much? 85% of legislation was filibustered in the first two years.
I think you're confused. Republicans didn't even have enough votes to prevent cloture for 10 months out of that 2 years.
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:18 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I'd rather see it the other way around, but I don't think "worry" is the right word. I don't have as much blind faith in that number as Nate Silver fanboys do.
It will get close again. We are usually a 51%/49% voting public in presidental elections. I dont think this year will be any different.
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Old 09-12-2012, 01:26 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I think you're confused. Republicans didn't even have enough votes to prevent cloture for 10 months out of that 2 years.
That doesn't mean they couldn't get one blue dog Democrat to come over.
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Old 09-12-2012, 01:29 PM   #124
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Originally Posted by Pittsie View Post
Absolutely. Lotta time between now and November 6th for voter suppression.
Your only hope is to steal the election?
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 09-12-2012, 02:01 PM   #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
That doesn't mean they couldn't get one blue dog Democrat to come over.
If Obama can't even get his own party on board, I don't know what you're complaining about.
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Old 09-12-2012, 08:39 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If Obama can't even get his own party on board, I don't know what you're complaining about.
Because the Dems are a big tent with wide varied views on everything. The's R's march in lock step together,
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Old 09-12-2012, 10:49 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Because the Dems are a big tent with wide varied views on everything. The's R's march in lock step together,
Which is it? Do Republicans march in lock step together or are they about to break apart from the rifts created by tea party vs RINO or social con vs libertarian or neocon vs isolationist?
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:52 AM   #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Which is it? Do Republicans march in lock step together or are they about to break apart from the rifts created by tea party vs RINO or social con vs libertarian or neocon vs isolationist?
Republicans are marching together in lock step off a cliff where the are going to break into their many incoherent factions.
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Old 09-13-2012, 07:39 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Republicans are marching together in lock step off a cliff where the are going to break into their many incoherent factions.
Haha
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Old 09-13-2012, 08:36 AM   #130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If Obama can't even get his own party on board, I don't know what you're complaining about.
That's a big reach by you, and you've had some big ones. Who do you blame more for the filibuster? Do you blame the group that votes 39-0 against on everything or the group that sometimes has a 59-1? They actually used the filibuster more during the 110th Congress after they were taken out of power in 2006. They, like you, want it both ways. If they are in the minority they are standing up for America. If they are in the majority you should vote with them because the American people have spoken. Both answers represent that Republicans are my way or the highway. They have no desire to come to a compromise which is the backbone of bipartisan politics. It's not bipartisan if you only need one guy from the other side to come over to block everything, especially is you have nothing but your own partisan agenda to present when it comes time to pass bills.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 09-13-2012, 08:54 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
That's a big reach by you, and you've had some big ones. Who do you blame more for the filibuster? Do you blame the group that votes 39-0 against on everything or the group that sometimes has a 59-1? They actually used the filibuster more during the 110th Congress after they were taken out of power in 2006. They, like you, want it both ways. If they are in the minority they are standing up for America. If they are in the majority you should vote with them because the American people have spoken. Both answers represent that Republicans are my way or the highway. They have no desire to come to a compromise which is the backbone of bipartisan politics. It's not bipartisan if you only need one guy from the other side to come over to block everything, especially is you have nothing but your own partisan agenda to present when it comes time to pass bills.
I don't blame anyone, but you can't blame one party when that party doesn't have the votes to carry off a filibuster. And I still would like to see where you got that 85% number because I don't believe it.

Oh, and don't stop whining. It's incredibly entertaining to see a guy whining about how his party's massive majorities just can't find a way to govern.
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Old 09-13-2012, 02:28 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I don't blame anyone, but you can't blame one party when that party doesn't have the votes to carry off a filibuster. And I still would like to see where you got that 85% number because I don't believe it.

Oh, and don't stop whining. It's incredibly entertaining to see a guy whining about how his party's massive majorities just can't find a way to govern.
The Senate filibuster is an anachronism and unconstitutional. It is a senate rule that contradicts the Constitution which calls only for a simple majority with the following exeptions:


•Convicting an Impeachment (2/3 majority in the Senate - Article 1, Section 3)
•Expulsion of a member of one house of Congress (2/3 vote of the house in question - Article 1, Section 5)
•Override a Presidential Veto (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate - Article 1, Section 7)
•Ratify a treaty (2/3 majority in the Senate - Article 2, Section 2)
•Passing of a Constitutional Amendment by Congress (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate - Article 5)
•Calling for a Constitutional Convention (2/3 of the state legislatures - Article 5)
•Ratifying a Constitutional Amendment (3/4 of the states - Article 5)
•Restore the ability of certain rebels to serve in the government (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate - 14th Amendment)
•Approval of removal of the President from his position after the Vice President and the Cabinet approve such removal and after the President contests the removal (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate 25th Amendment)


Up until 1970 that filibuster had been used on average only one time per year. Up until the 103rd Congress that number never exceeded 60. Now it is a overused tool that is a tryanny of the minority.

You also failed to note that Franken wasn't seated until July 7 and that Kennedy was not well enough to vote most of that time. Kennedy died in August and was not replaced until late September.

Overall cloture was announced 136 times during the 111th Congress. The rules have been changed to make the process easier back in 2005 when Republicans saw the writing on the wall that they would lose their majority. There is now in place a virtual filibuster.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 09-13-2012, 03:23 PM   #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
The Senate filibuster is an anachronism and unconstitutional. It is a senate rule that contradicts the Constitution which calls only for a simple majority with the following exeptions:


•Convicting an Impeachment (2/3 majority in the Senate - Article 1, Section 3)
•Expulsion of a member of one house of Congress (2/3 vote of the house in question - Article 1, Section 5)
•Override a Presidential Veto (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate - Article 1, Section 7)
•Ratify a treaty (2/3 majority in the Senate - Article 2, Section 2)
•Passing of a Constitutional Amendment by Congress (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate - Article 5)
•Calling for a Constitutional Convention (2/3 of the state legislatures - Article 5)
•Ratifying a Constitutional Amendment (3/4 of the states - Article 5)
•Restore the ability of certain rebels to serve in the government (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate - 14th Amendment)
•Approval of removal of the President from his position after the Vice President and the Cabinet approve such removal and after the President contests the removal (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate 25th Amendment)


Up until 1970 that filibuster had been used on average only one time per year. Up until the 103rd Congress that number never exceeded 60. Now it is a overused tool that is a tryanny of the minority.

You also failed to note that Franken wasn't seated until July 7 and that Kennedy was not well enough to vote most of that time. Kennedy died in August and was not replaced until late September.

Overall cloture was announced 136 times during the 111th Congress. The rules have been changed to make the process easier back in 2005 when Republicans saw the writing on the wall that they would lose their majority. There is now in place a virtual filibuster.
1. No, a filibuster is not unconstitutional. The constitution gives the Senate the power to create it's own rules in Article 1, Section 5:

Quote:
Each House may determine the rules of its proceedings, punish its members for disorderly behavior, and, with the concurrence of two thirds, expel a member.
2. Still no support for your 85% claim? I call
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Old 09-13-2012, 03:29 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If Obama can't even get his own party on board, I don't know what you're complaining about.
Pat, I know how precise you are about such things, so I'm sure you know that the Ds never had more than 58 members, and most of the time it was 56 or 57. If you want to add in the two Independents, one of which sided with Rs on many issues, there were 60 Ds/Is for a stretch of about a month and then later a stretch of about 4 months which included the end of year recess. I know you like to be accurate.
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Old 09-13-2012, 03:54 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Pat, I know how precise you are about such things, so I'm sure you know that the Ds never had more than 58 members, and most of the time it was 56 or 57. If you want to add in the two Independents, one of which sided with Rs on many issues, there were 60 Ds/Is for a stretch of about a month and then later a stretch of about 4 months which included the end of year recess. I know you like to be accurate.
I have been accurate. For the better part of a year, the GOP didn't even have the votes to filibuster. During the rest of that Congress, they had such a small minority that they had to rally even the most RINO of Republicans to block democrat legislation. Amazingly enough, Harry Reid, his co-conspirator Nancy Pelosi, and their sidekick Barack Obama, periodically generated such odious proposals that even Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins couldn't swallow it.
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