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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 09-13-2012, 03:04 PM   #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
1. No, a filibuster is not unconstitutional. The constitution gives the Senate the power to create it's own rules in Article 1, Section 5:



2. Still no support for your 85% claim? I call
I stand corrected, 70%. Still a tyranny of the minority.

http://crooksandliars.com/jon-perr/r...ism-by-numbers
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Old 09-13-2012, 03:08 PM   #137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
I stand corrected, 70%. Still a tyranny of the minority.

http://crooksandliars.com/jon-perr/r...ism-by-numbers
And a good portion of what they did allow was important stuff like the naming of post offices.
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Old 09-13-2012, 04:25 PM   #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
I stand corrected, 70%. Still a tyranny of the minority.

http://crooksandliars.com/jon-perr/r...ism-by-numbers
You're backtracking toward the truth, but I think you're still misreading this. Let's be clear about what you're claiming. Are you saying that 70% of legislation was blocked by GOP filibuster or are you saying something completely different but doing it in a vague way to make it sound much more significant than it really was?
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Old 09-13-2012, 04:36 PM   #139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
You're backtracking toward the truth, but I think you're still misreading this. Let's be clear about what you're claiming. Are you saying that 70% of legislation was blocked by GOP filibuster or are you saying something completely different but doing it in a vague way to make it sound much more significant than it really was?
Patteau, heres your update.

Romney is down to an 8.4% chance of winning.
Obama a 91.6% chance of winning
Democrats "likely" to retain majority of the senate.

This is unreal. No ****ing way should Obama be looking this good. Even if its still looking like a 51%/49% popular vote at the end.
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Old 09-13-2012, 05:28 PM   #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
Cool. Now you can stay home and not vote.
Yep, I am so glad they got this shit figured out.
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Old 09-13-2012, 05:34 PM   #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by |Zach| View Post
You shape your own life.

Get this dramatic bullshit out of here.
Whether you want to face up to it or not Zach, there are a whole lot of people in this country, that feel that way.

It isn't just me, I talk to them every day. I find it quite interesting that when such opinions are expressed, that it seems to touch such a visceral nerve.

Oh yes, there is going to be a wake when this great country passes away from the form that we once new it. Sorry for you, if it messes us up a little when we express it. There is no drama about it.
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Old 09-14-2012, 09:52 AM   #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
Whether you want to face up to it or not Zach, there are a whole lot of people in this country, that feel that way.

It isn't just me, I talk to them every day. I find it quite interesting that when such opinions are expressed, that it seems to touch such a visceral nerve.

Oh yes, there is going to be a wake when this great country passes away from the form that we once new it. Sorry for you, if it messes us up a little when we express it. There is no drama about it.
Opinions are fine. And you get to voice them. I DONT KNOW HOW YOU GET TO VOICE THEM UNDER OBAMAS RED CLOUD BUT YOU DO.

I hear about how bad things are yet all I see are hard working people in my day to day that thrive and people who cut corners that don't. The system works. How about we just call all of this what is and laugh at people who fail and blame the big bad government for it.

Your drama queen antics after the last election of shitting on the country told me everything I needed to know about you.
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Old 09-14-2012, 10:49 AM   #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Patteau, heres your update.

Romney is down to an 8.4% chance of winning.
Obama a 91.6% chance of winning
Democrats "likely" to retain majority of the senate.

This is unreal. No ****ing way should Obama be looking this good. Even if its still looking like a 51%/49% popular vote at the end.
I wonder what changed. He had it at 79/21 and now it's 92/8. I know Romney was catching shit for his gaffes around the Libya/Egypt situation but I didn't think it would have that kind of effect. Maybe it's just a snafu on the site right now.

I see it still being around 80/20. The Republicans for the most part have rallied around Romney in the backlash of his comments about Egypt so that could either help Romney or hurt the party candidates in their elections.
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Old 09-14-2012, 11:01 AM   #144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swanman View Post
I wonder what changed. He had it at 79/21 and now it's 92/8. I know Romney was catching shit for his gaffes around the Libya/Egypt situation but I didn't think it would have that kind of effect. Maybe it's just a snafu on the site right now.

I see it still being around 80/20. The Republicans for the most part have rallied around Romney in the backlash of his comments about Egypt so that could either help Romney or hurt the party candidates in their elections.
slew of swing state polls that are showing Obama's lead getting bigger or taking over the lead..ie Florida.
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Old 09-14-2012, 12:24 PM   #145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by |Zach| View Post
Opinions are fine. And you get to voice them. I DONT KNOW HOW YOU GET TO VOICE THEM UNDER OBAMAS RED CLOUD BUT YOU DO.
Hey, get it right.

It's a blue cloud.

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Old 09-14-2012, 12:54 PM   #146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
slew of swing state polls that are showing Obama's lead getting bigger or taking over the lead..ie Florida.
Yep, increase due to the recent battleground state polls.
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Old 09-14-2012, 02:35 PM   #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by |Zach| View Post
Opinions are fine. And you get to voice them. I DONT KNOW HOW YOU GET TO VOICE THEM UNDER OBAMAS RED CLOUD BUT YOU DO.

I hear about how bad things are yet all I see are hard working people in my day to day that thrive and people who cut corners that don't. The system works. How about we just call all of this what is and laugh at people who fail and blame the big bad government for it.

Your drama queen antics after the last election of shitting on the country told me everything I needed to know about you.
I didn't take a shit on this country, Obama did. Don't ever forget that. 1 in 6 get food stamps now. That is a great accomplishment to be proud of in your president.

50 % of Americans get some form of assistance from the government. I am not one of them, so I don't know which pool you would have me in, the one that cuts corners or the ones that spends many hours working to pay and comply with all of the regs so that the government folks get theirs.

Go ahead and be proud of a cesspool of people who suck off the government and call it progress, I will not be among you.

I may still reside in the same x,y,z coordinate now as I did before the election, but it is NOT the America that I dream of, and once knew. America, is an idea, not a place. As long as I live, I will strive to move it toward that dream.
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:27 PM   #148
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Patteau, heres your update.

Romney is down to an 8.4% chance of winning.
Obama a 91.6% chance of winning
Democrats "likely" to retain majority of the senate.

This is unreal. No ****ing way should Obama be looking this good. Even if its still looking like a 51%/49% popular vote at the end.
Not sure where you are getting this. 538 has the race getting more uncertain due to his numbers being compared to what they expect for a convention bounce. I think they're trying to make the race not a slam dunk as Romney is still in his post convention bounce window too.

538 gives Obama a 78.6% chance of winning today, which is higher than it had been prior to the conventions but off of last week. Obama's numbers rose last week as the Romney bounce was not as high as a normal convention bounce. 538 is also currently projecting the popular vote to be in Obama's favor 51.3-47.5%. That only leaves 1.2% for 3rd party votes.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:35 PM   #149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swanman View Post
I wonder what changed. He had it at 79/21 and now it's 92/8. I know Romney was catching shit for his gaffes around the Libya/Egypt situation but I didn't think it would have that kind of effect. Maybe it's just a snafu on the site right now.

I see it still being around 80/20. The Republicans for the most part have rallied around Romney in the backlash of his comments about Egypt so that could either help Romney or hurt the party candidates in their elections.
It still is around 80/20, the 8% figure is wrong. The raw daily numbers are going to fluctuate a lot more than the actual projections will.
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:43 PM   #150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
You're backtracking toward the truth, but I think you're still misreading this. Let's be clear about what you're claiming. Are you saying that 70% of legislation was blocked by GOP filibuster or are you saying something completely different but doing it in a vague way to make it sound much more significant than it really was?
I posted the link and it says 70%.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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