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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:48 PM   #151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
It still is around 80/20, the 8% figure is wrong. The raw daily numbers are going to fluctuate a lot more than the actual projections will.
I see where he is getting those numbers. The numbers which I give are from a forecast of the election. The numbers he gives are if the election were held today with the poll numbers out there. I think the Nov. 6 forecast is a more accurate reading of the numbers because it understands there will be ebbs and flows as the election unfolds. The numbers that he points to assume there will be no changes between now and the election.
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Old 09-14-2012, 04:29 PM   #152
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
It still is around 80/20, the 8% figure is wrong. The raw daily numbers are going to fluctuate a lot more than the actual projections will.
that is the now cast button. As of today, Romney has a 8% chance of election. Nate Silver sees it being a 20% chance by election day.
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Old 09-14-2012, 04:31 PM   #153
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
I think the Nov. 6 forecast is a more accurate reading of the numbers because it understands there will be ebbs and flows as the election unfolds. The numbers that he points to assume there will be no changes between now and the election.
It will end up being a close election. Yet, Obama will end up with 300+ EC.
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-14-2012, 10:53 PM   #154
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
It will end up being a close election. Yet, Obama will end up with 300+ EC.
2004/2008 those would have been runaway totals. On the old fivethirtyeight site, they actually used 300 EC as a barometer for a landslide election.
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Old 09-14-2012, 11:50 PM   #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
2004/2008 those would have been runaway totals. On the old fivethirtyeight site, they actually used 300 EC as a barometer for a landslide election.
I dont see it as a runaway election but it could be because all the 51/49 decisons go Obamas way. The Republicans have no one to blame but theirselfs.

Florida - Named the kill Medicare as we know it poster boy. Freaked out the seniors is what should have been a safe state.

Virgina - The govenors obsession with Abortion is going to kill the Republicans. The suburban women are fleeing from the R's.

Ohio - The auto bailout worked. 225K and climbing new jobs. The R's opposed it.

Michigan - The auto bailout worked. 225K and climbing new jobs. The R's opposed it.

Wisconsin - Teachers are not the cause of our economic situation. The obsession with unions is going to be the decider.
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Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-15-2012, 12:25 AM   #156
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I dont see it as a runaway election but it could be because all the 51/49 decisons go Obamas way. The Republicans have no one to blame but theirselfs.

Florida - Named the kill Medicare as we know it poster boy. Freaked out the seniors is what should have been a safe state.

Virgina - The govenors obsession with Abortion is going to kill the Republicans. The suburban women are fleeing from the R's.

Ohio - The auto bailout worked. 225K and climbing new jobs. The R's opposed it.

Michigan - The auto bailout worked. 225K and climbing new jobs. The R's opposed it.

Wisconsin - Teachers are not the cause of our economic situation. The obsession with unions is going to be the decider.

Keep whistling past the graveyard.
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Old 09-15-2012, 12:27 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Keep whistling past the graveyard.
Romney is a supremely weak candidate - probably weaker than John Kerry.

Why do you keep signing his praises?

Thanks in advance.
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Old 09-15-2012, 12:30 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Romney is a supremely weak candidate - probably weaker than John Kerry.
I see no evidence of that. Can you give me something empirical to work with, here?
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Old 09-15-2012, 12:35 AM   #159
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
I see no evidence of that. Can you give me something empirical to work with, here?


JFC.

Look at this forum alone. Let me ask you and I'd like an honest response: Does the Middle Class in America have anything to do with people earning $250k per year? $200k per year?

Where's the bottom line income for Middle Class? If you don't earn even $100k per year, are you poor?
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Old 09-15-2012, 12:41 AM   #160
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JFC.

Look at this forum alone.
Do you seriously want to use this forum as a yardstick to measure the potential outcome of the upcoming election?

Take some time to search some old threads prior to the 2010 midterms.

The usual suspects were all whistling past the graveyard, turned out to be a bloodbath.
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Old 09-15-2012, 12:47 AM   #161
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Do you seriously want to use this forum as a yardstick to measure the potential outcome of the upcoming election?
Okay, let's just look at the candidate:

Is a family of four that that earns $250k a year considered Middle Class? Was the Republican candidate on the mark in his comments regarding the Middle East this past week?

Have you begun the necessary preparations to open a sandwich shop?
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Old 09-15-2012, 12:51 AM   #162
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Okay, let's just look at the candidate:

Is a family of four that that earns $250k a year considered Middle Class?
First of all, what does "middle class" even mean? This term has become a part of the political lexicon, everybody uses it, but nobody can really define it.

By "middle" do you mean if break everybody down into groups by their income, will there be 3 arbitrary groups--- one low-- one middle---and one high?

What percent of the American population is "middle class"? What variables did you use to determine that?
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Old 09-15-2012, 01:06 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
First of all, what does "middle class" even mean? This term has become a part of the political lexicon, everybody uses it, but nobody can really define it.

By "middle" do you mean if break everybody down into groups by their income, will there be 3 arbitrary groups--- one low-- one middle---and one high?

What percent of the American population is "middle class"? What variables did you use to determine that?
I'll make it easy for you:

Do you consider $250k a year in earnings to be below average, average or above average?

Do you, personally, look upon those that earn in excess of $200k a year as wealthy?
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Old 09-15-2012, 01:18 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
I'll make it easy for you:
Why are you evading the question? I don't see how either one of us can make a point without determining what the variables are that are used to define income class(es).


Does "middle" mean "average"? If so, I'd be more than happy to do the math if you provide all the incomes.
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Old 09-15-2012, 01:23 AM   #165
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Why are you evading the question? I don't see how either one of us can make a point without determining what the variables are that are used to define income class(es).


Does "middle" mean "average"? If so, I'd be more than happy to do the math if you provide all the incomes.
I'm not sure I follow. We're not talking about median income, we're talking the perception of the Middle Class in America.

When a politician, regardless of political affiliation, refers to "Middle Class Tax Cuts", are they referring to people earning $200-250k and below or a different earning bracket altogether?

What do YOU personally consider to be the "Middle Class"?
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