538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I'm not sure I follow. We're not talking about median income, we're talking the perception of the Middle Class in America.

When a politician, regardless of political affiliation, refers to "Middle Class Tax Cuts", are they referring to people earning $200-250k and below or a different earning bracket altogether?

What do YOU personally consider to be the "Middle Class"?

So we're discussing a "perception" now? Mine or yours?

A person living in hazzard county kentucky or a person living on Manhatten's upper westside?

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by whoman69

2004/2008 those would have been runaway totals. On the old fivethirtyeight site, they actually used 300 EC as a barometer for a landslide election.

Obam's #'s are down slightly in the last couple of days in Silver's formula due to the manufacturing #'s. Down to 76% from 78%.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by whoman69

I posted the link and it says 70%.

You're dodging my question. What are *you* saying that that 70% means?

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Was the Republican candidate on the mark in his comments regarding the Middle East this past week?

Yes

[go bowe]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Yes

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Yes

He was factually incorrect and looked like an idiot because of that. How could he possibly be on the mark.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Yes

Theres that bubble again.

[go bowe]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Theres that bubble again.

three ducks went for a swim in the city fountain but all got tickets and had to go to court...

the judge asked the first duck what is your name?

he said quack and the judge asked what were you doing in the fountain?

the first duck said blowing bubbles...

then the judge asked the second duck what was his name and the duck answered quack quack...

when the judge asked what he was doing in the fountain, the second duck said blowing bubbles...

when the judge came to the third duck he said i suppose your name is quack quack quack?

and the third duck said, no my name is bubbles...


credit to iz...

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by alnorth

He was factually incorrect and looked like an idiot because of that. How could he possibly be on the mark.

No, he was factually correct and both the tone and the content of his statement were perfect.

If you still disagree, be specific. Quotes please.

[whoman69]

538 now reporting that GOP control of the Senate is becoming increasingly improbable.

"Democrats are now favored to retain control of the Senate when the new Congress convenes in January, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, breaking a summer stalemate during which control of the chamber appeared about equally likely to go either way.

An unusually large number of Senate races remain competitive, meaning that a wide range of outcomes are still possible. Republicans have about a 10 percent chance of winning a net of at least six seats from Democrats, according to the forecast, which would give them control of at least 53 seats next year. However, there is also about a 20 percent chance that Democrats could actually gain Senate seats on balance, giving them at least 54. The only thing that seems completely assured is that neither party will control enough seats next year to hold a filibuster-proof majority."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ng/#more-34615

[Calcountry]

It's all over, I won't even vote.

NOT!

[Direckshun]

Holy balls.

Pew has Obama up by 8, among likely voters.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Holy balls.

Pew has Obama up by 8, among likely voters.

I'd say Romney crapping the bed the last three weeks has to start hitting him in the polls.

[Calcountry]

Shoot, Obama is up by 30 points in California.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by whoman69

538 now reporting that GOP control of the Senate is becoming increasingly improbable.

"Democrats are now favored to retain control of the Senate when the new Congress convenes in January, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, breaking a summer stalemate during which control of the chamber appeared about equally likely to go either way.

An unusually large number of Senate races remain competitive, meaning that a wide range of outcomes are still possible. Republicans have about a 10 percent chance of winning a net of at least six seats from Democrats, according to the forecast, which would give them control of at least 53 seats next year. However, there is also about a 20 percent chance that Democrats could actually gain Senate seats on balance, giving them at least 54. The only thing that seems completely assured is that neither party will control enough seats next year to hold a filibuster-proof majority."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ng/#more-34615

538 stated today they give Democrats a 79% chance of holding the Senate. Tim Kaine is pulling away from George Allen in VA. Tommy Thompson has fallen to a tie with Tammy Baldwin in WI. One outlier poll even had her with a 9 point margin. In Maine Independent Angus King has a 85% chance of winning. Its been suggested that King will caucus with Democrats. Democrats also got good news in MA, CT and FL. Two things are seen to be hurting Republicans. No coattails for Romney. 2nd is that the conservative Republican platform is taking them down.