Trending towards more robots in the future workforce.

[Direckshun]

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012...teal-your-job/

Is that robot going to steal your job?
Posted by Masa Serdarevic
on Sep 14 08:45.

We have written extensively about how the global economy is becoming increasingly technology-intensive, and reaping productivity gains.

Robots, we’ve argued, are slowly taking over in the workplace. And there are plenty of anecdotal examples, such as these noodle-slicing beings from China. But sales figures also confirm that more robots are being sold than ever before.

A new CLSA report entitled ‘Robot-buying boom’ crunches data provided by the International Federation of Robotics and comes up with some impressive statistics. Like this one (our emphasis):

Global sales of industrial robots in 2011 reached the highest ever recorded, at 166,028 units (+38% YoY) … According to the same organisation, 2012 will be another record-breaking year with 9% YoY growth.

We actually hadn’t heard of IFR before, but according to the CLSA’s Morten Paulsen and Edward Bourlet it is “broadly recognised as the leading authority on global robotics market data and market research”. It also compiles data from a number of national industry organisations.

What’s striking, of course, is that the 2011 figure is 38 per cent above the previous peak in 2005. This is, note Paulsen and Bourlet…

… a clear reminder that industrial robots are a cyclical growth industry, where the cyclical peaks tend to exceed previous peaks. The 2005 peak was 22% higher than the 2000 peak.

Here’s the chart, with a big upswing in 2011:



Geographically, north east Asia dominates, with a 46 per cent share of the market last year. Japan alone buys 17 per cent of all units sold, then South Korea with 15 per cent, then China with 14 per cent, the US and Germany with 12 per cent each.

The US, China and Japan are expected to be the three strongest markets this year in terms of growth.

By industry, it is the automotive industry that buys the largest share of robots, and it’s growing at quite a clip:



The electronics industries grew at 20 per cent year-on-year, and made up almost a quarter of global demand. From Paulsen and Bourlet:

The electronics industry was the fastest-growing market for robotics in 2010, so the deceleration of growth is mainly due to a high base effect.

IFR forecasts that the demand will be sustained in spite of a weak global economy. North America and China are expected to have the highest growth rate at 15 per cent YoY, followed by Japan with 11 per cent. It should conterbalance a forecast drop in demand from Europe.

For CY2013, IFR is expecting 2% negative growth. According to IFR, this is because of potential cyclical weakness in investments in the automotive industry in developed markets. IFR is not expecting negative growth for robotics demand in China and other emerging markets.

Paulsen and Bourlet agree with these IFR forecasts, but not entirely:

IFR’s forecast for robot demand growth in CY2012 (+9% YoY) is fairly close to our forecast calling for 11% YoY unit growth. We share the organisation’s view that growth will be led by North America and emerging markets. However, we have a more positive view on robotics demand for CY2013, where we predict 9% YoY growth for global robot demand. Our view is not based on a more positive view on the cycle. Indeed, we expect overall machinery demand to hit a cyclical low in CY2013. However, we believe the electronics industry – led by Apple – could drive a new wave of investments in robotics in the electronics assembly industry.

Though with demographic trends as they are, and robot technology becoming increasingly sophisticated, human labour is eventually not going to be an economical choice for many manufacturers and corporates. Why employ someone to slice noodles, when a robot will do the same thing without complaining or demanding a pay rise? Why have a human drive a taxi or a train, if a robot-operated one is potentially even safer and more efficient? Why employ a barrista if this machine will do the same job? It’s a revolution that’s already changing the global workplace.