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Old 09-18-2012, 11:21 AM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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National Tracking Polls: Romney +6 in Last Week

Strange. I thought all of these Romney gaffes had killed his campaign.

Rasmussen Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 46
Rasmussen This Week: Obama: 45, Romney: 47

Gallup Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 43
Gallup This Week: Obama: 47, Romney: 46

Given the huge pick-ups Romney makes when Likely Voter filters are applied, I'd say the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are probably close to, if not exactly, the same.

Let's see if Obama gets another bounce from the 47% remark (doubt it, but we'll see) and how quickly that one fades...

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Old 09-18-2012, 11:52 AM   #2
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Yeah, but what about electoral votes by state—national tracking isn't enough. Does show a trend though.
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Old 09-18-2012, 11:57 AM   #3
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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State polls show something complete different. Like the one today with Obama up by 8 in Virginia.
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Old 09-18-2012, 12:05 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
State polls show something complete different. Like the one today with Obama up by 8 in Virginia.
Did you see the party ID breakdown?

As for state polls you have Romney up 1 in Florida and up 2 in Colorado just today.
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Old 09-18-2012, 12:06 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Yeah, but what about electoral votes by state—national tracking isn't enough. Does show a trend though.
Also, the candidate that wins the national vote wins the election 97.5% of the time.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:03 PM   #6
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You are either some kind of shill or a very very confused person.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:10 PM   #7
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Did you see the party ID breakdown?

As for state polls you have Romney up 1 in Florida and up 2 in Colorado just today.
Lol Rasmussen


United Press International: Obama 49%, Romney 45%.

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48%, Romney 43%.

Gallup: Obama 47%, Romney 46%

SurveyUSA/Braun: Obama 48%, Romney 45%

DailyKos/SEIU/PPP: Obama 50%, Romney 46%

Rasmussen: Romney 47%, Obama 45%

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll will be out tonight at 6:30 pm ET.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:23 PM   #8
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The traditional pollsters are oversampling democrats and using optimistic turnout models for democrat voters. Unless you look at the sampling model you can't interpret a survey anymore.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:24 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Lol Rasmussen


United Press International: Obama 49%, Romney 45%.

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48%, Romney 43%.

Gallup: Obama 47%, Romney 46%

SurveyUSA/Braun: Obama 48%, Romney 45%

DailyKos/SEIU/PPP: Obama 50%, Romney 46%

Rasmussen: Romney 47%, Obama 45%

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll will be out tonight at 6:30 pm ET.
These are tracking polls with results from yesterday?

And yes, Rasmussen, the pollster who once again is on the leading edge of Gallup's daily tracking numbers (which, being a 7-day rolling average of registered voters, lagged behind a couple days).

Let's see if NBC/WSJ uses the 2010 model, the 2008 model, or the 2004 model for voter participation.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:25 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
You are either some kind of shill or a very very confused person.
I thought you were ignoring me...



But if you are confused by this post, please feel free to correct the facts that I got wrong...
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:30 PM   #11
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
These are tracking polls with results from yesterday?

And yes, Rasmussen, the pollster who once again is on the leading edge of Gallup's daily tracking numbers (which, being a 7-day rolling average of registered voters, lagged behind a couple days).

Let's see if NBC/WSJ uses the 2010 model, the 2008 model, or the 2004 model for voter participation.
Latest polls from this weekend. Reuters for example was taken between Sept 12-17 and was likely voters.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:34 PM   #12
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There is a reason why people don't use Rasmussen except conservative partisans.

The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country during the last Presidential election.

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Old 09-18-2012, 01:37 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Latest polls from this weekend. Reuters for example was taken between Sept 12-17 and was likely voters.
Right. Don't disagree. But if you look at the movement in Rasmussen and Gallup the fall-off started at the end of the week.

Weighting obviously can be tinkered to make any poll have any results you want - just saying that Romney gained 6 points in the daily polls and the majority of that movement has come in the last three days, which is true.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:38 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
There is a reason why people don't use Rasmussen except conservative partisans.

The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country during the last Presidential election.

OK. Do you think their +10 GOP Akin poll is accurate?
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:44 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
These are tracking polls with results from yesterday?

And yes, Rasmussen, the pollster who once again is on the leading edge of Gallup's daily tracking numbers (which, being a 7-day rolling average of registered voters, lagged behind a couple days).

Let's see if NBC/WSJ uses the 2010 model, the 2008 model, or the 2004 model for voter participation.
The fact that Gallup is trumpeting "registered voters" polls after the conventions speaks for itself.
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