National Tracking Polls: Romney +6 in Last Week

[RINGLEADER]

Strange. I thought all of these Romney gaffes had killed his campaign.

Rasmussen Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 46
Rasmussen This Week: Obama: 45, Romney: 47

Gallup Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 43
Gallup This Week: Obama: 47, Romney: 46

Given the huge pick-ups Romney makes when Likely Voter filters are applied, I'd say the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are probably close to, if not exactly, the same.

Let's see if Obama gets another bounce from the 47% remark (doubt it, but we'll see) and how quickly that one fades...

[Hoover]

I'm a Republican and I'm not one to get too high based off of Gallup and Rassmussen polls.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by qabbaan

The traditional pollsters are oversampling democrats and using optimistic turnout models for democrat voters. Unless you look at the sampling model you can't interpret a survey anymore.

Historically, the Democrats have a higher party ID in the exit polls (usually 3%-5%), although those norms were altered in 2004 (37 DEM - 37 GOP - 26 IND) and 2010 (36 DEM - 36 GOP - 28 IND) and in 2008 in the other direction (39 DEM - 32 GOP - 29 IND).

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by Hoover

I'm a Republican and I'm not one to get too high based off of Gallup and Rassmussen polls.

I'm not going to get high off of any numbers, but the movement towards Romney in two daily tracking polls is just as significant as the 6-point bounce Obama got from his convention. The only things that have happened are that convention is further in the rear-view mirror and the Middle East. Now we'll see if Romney's statements move the meter in the next week back to Obama's favor.

[qabbaan]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Historically, the Democrats have a higher party ID in the exit polls (usually 3%-5%), although those norms were altered in 2004 (37 DEM - 37 GOP - 26 IND) and 2010 (36 DEM - 36 GOP - 28 IND) and in 2008 in the other direction (39 DEM - 32 GOP - 29 IND).

I think that, given the unprecedented turnout for Obama in '08 and the unprecedented disappointment with him now, we might be in uncharted territory. No one can predict what turnout will be like.

Certainly he can't pull what he did in 2008 with his numbers among independents and whites and his personal favorability numbers having plunged. So how can we judge polls when the turnout models aren't presented? We can't. If they are presented we can only guess what will happen on election day.

This race is probably the hardest one to handicap in modern history.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

OK. Do you think their +10 GOP Akin poll is accurate?

PPP or Rasmussen?

[J Diddy]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Also, the candidate that wins the national vote wins the election 97.5% of the time.

[Al]Yeah don't remind me.[/Gore]

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

PPP or Rasmussen?

PPP

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

PPP

The only poll I saw from them was on Aug 30 where they had Claire up by one.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

The only poll I saw from them was on Aug 30 where they had Claire up by one.

Right, that had GOP +9 in the weighting. Three times what it was in 2010. [Actually, I'm looking at the poll from the day after he made his statement when everyone was trying to get him to exit]

That's all I'm saying -- anyone can manipulate poll numbers and Rasmussen on their own doesn't matter much. Our discussion on the other thread was that Rasmussen has pre-dated other polls in the trend and Gallup is reflecting the trend that Rasmussen picked up a few days ago.

I personally think this is going to be something akin to 2000 or 2004, probably closer to 2004 without the GOP parity. But I also don't think the Dems are going to turn out +6 or +7 like they did in 2008 either, nor is Obama going to win independents, but that's just a guess.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Right, that had GOP +9 in the weighting. Three times what it was in 2010. [Actually, I'm looking at the poll from the day after he made his statement when everyone was trying to get him to exit]

That's all I'm saying -- anyone can manipulate poll numbers and Rasmussen on their own doesn't matter much. Our discussion on the other thread was that Rasmussen has pre-dated other polls in the trend and Gallup is reflecting the trend that Rasmussen picked up a few days ago.

I personally think this is going to be something akin to 2000 or 2004, probably closer to 2004 without the GOP parity. But I also don't think the Dems are going to turn out +6 or +7 like they did in 2008 either, nor is Obama going to win independents, but that's just a guess.

I guess I don't see they +9. Looking at the poll it was 35% R, 33% D, 32% Independent.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p..._MO_830925.pdf

Also Obama is down 10 points here in MO so it doesn't surprise me that the race with Akin will be close.

I agree with you on the turnout the race is going to be fairly close probably with Obama winning by 2-3% overall.

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Also, the candidate that wins the national vote wins the election 97.5% of the time.

Yeah, well, I only said that because I read Obama had the edge in the EC vote. If it's a close election, the electoral college will decide it.

[suzzer99]

Rasmussen always leans republican until a week or two before the election. Then they adjust right before the election and use that # to claim accuracy.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by BucEyedPea

Yeah, well, I only said that because I read Obama had the edge in the EC vote. If it's a close election, the electoral college will decide it.

Of course!

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Rasmussen always leans republican until a week or two before the election. Then they adjust right before the election and use that # to claim accuracy.

Really? Is that what Gallup does too?

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by BucEyedPea

Yeah, well, I only said that because I read Obama had the edge in the EC vote. If it's a close election, the electoral college will decide it.

No way! Link?