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#16 |
Rufus Dawes Jr.
Join Date: Aug 2000
Casino cash: $19989
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I'm a Republican and I'm not one to get too high based off of Gallup and Rassmussen polls.
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#17 |
RING****ER
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $21168
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Historically, the Democrats have a higher party ID in the exit polls (usually 3%-5%), although those norms were altered in 2004 (37 DEM - 37 GOP - 26 IND) and 2010 (36 DEM - 36 GOP - 28 IND) and in 2008 in the other direction (39 DEM - 32 GOP - 29 IND).
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Posts: 33,548
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#18 |
RING****ER
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $21168
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I'm not going to get high off of any numbers, but the movement towards Romney in two daily tracking polls is just as significant as the 6-point bounce Obama got from his convention. The only things that have happened are that convention is further in the rear-view mirror and the Middle East. Now we'll see if Romney's statements move the meter in the next week back to Obama's favor.
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Posts: 33,548
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#19 | |
Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2012
Casino cash: $5000
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Quote:
Certainly he can't pull what he did in 2008 with his numbers among independents and whites and his personal favorability numbers having plunged. So how can we judge polls when the turnout models aren't presented? We can't. If they are presented we can only guess what will happen on election day. This race is probably the hardest one to handicap in modern history. |
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Posts: 2,973
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#20 |
Please squeeze
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
Casino cash: $24744
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Posts: 54,157
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#21 |
One Groovy Cat
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: The Pitt State baby
Casino cash: $27292
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#22 |
RING****ER
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $21168
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#23 |
Please squeeze
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
Casino cash: $24744
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#24 | |
RING****ER
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $21168
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Quote:
That's all I'm saying -- anyone can manipulate poll numbers and Rasmussen on their own doesn't matter much. Our discussion on the other thread was that Rasmussen has pre-dated other polls in the trend and Gallup is reflecting the trend that Rasmussen picked up a few days ago. I personally think this is going to be something akin to 2000 or 2004, probably closer to 2004 without the GOP parity. But I also don't think the Dems are going to turn out +6 or +7 like they did in 2008 either, nor is Obama going to win independents, but that's just a guess. |
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Posts: 33,548
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#25 | |
Please squeeze
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
Casino cash: $24744
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Quote:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p..._MO_830925.pdf Also Obama is down 10 points here in MO so it doesn't surprise me that the race with Akin will be close. I agree with you on the turnout the race is going to be fairly close probably with Obama winning by 2-3% overall. |
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Posts: 54,157
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#26 |
Bucs, Pats, Noles
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: None of your business
Casino cash: $70063
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Yeah, well, I only said that because I read Obama had the edge in the EC vote. If it's a close election, the electoral college will decide it.
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#27 |
MVP
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: L.A.
Casino cash: $34384
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Rasmussen always leans republican until a week or two before the election. Then they adjust right before the election and use that # to claim accuracy.
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#28 |
RING****ER
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $21168
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#29 |
RING****ER
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $21168
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#30 | |
Debunking your bullshit
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: KC area
Casino cash: $63575
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No way! Link?
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