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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 09-20-2012, 03:12 PM   #181
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In the presidential race, after a few days of moving towards Romney, the polls are moving back towards Obama. They give now a 75.2% chance of an Obama victory. Obama's numbers were falling from his post convention highs. He was being penalized in the simulation for not holding his post convention bounce. I thought that was unfair since Romney was not penalized for losing the bounce from his convention.

The majority of the gains have been on the strength of good polls in battleground states. There were some strange outliers with a 14 point lead in Wisconsin for Obama after another poll earlier in the week only had him up 1. Another poll in New Hampshire had Romney in the lead by 3 points while another earlier in the week had Obama up by 5. 538 gives the Obama campaign a 71% chance of taking New Hampshire and an 82% chance in Wisconsin. The important swing state of Ohio has Obama with a 74% chance of winning.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 09-20-2012, 03:34 PM   #182
Aries Walker Aries Walker is offline
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Micromanaging the polls at this point is a fool's errand. Wait until at least a week after the first debate.
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Old 09-20-2012, 03:49 PM   #183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
In the presidential race, after a few days of moving towards Romney, the polls are moving back towards Obama. They give now a 75.2% chance of an Obama victory. Obama's numbers were falling from his post convention highs. He was being penalized in the simulation for not holding his post convention bounce. I thought that was unfair since Romney was not penalized for losing the bounce from his convention.

The majority of the gains have been on the strength of good polls in battleground states. There were some strange outliers with a 14 point lead in Wisconsin for Obama after another poll earlier in the week only had him up 1. Another poll in New Hampshire had Romney in the lead by 3 points while another earlier in the week had Obama up by 5. 538 gives the Obama campaign a 71% chance of taking New Hampshire and an 82% chance in Wisconsin. The important swing state of Ohio has Obama with a 74% chance of winning.
Even though it's not as "precise" of a measure, the Now-cast has it at 94/6. Ouch.
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Old 09-20-2012, 07:00 PM   #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
I'd say Romney crapping the bed the last three weeks has to start hitting him in the polls.
I'm still convinced that it will end up being close. Obama wins 51% to 48%.
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Old 09-20-2012, 07:04 PM   #185
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Its crazy that it could be 2% close race and yet the number of electoral vote margin would be so huge.......
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Old 09-20-2012, 07:29 PM   #186
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If one candidate is significantly ahead in relatively few states, while another is only moderately ahead but in many more states, the second candidate may very well win, even if the first has more actual votes.
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Old 09-21-2012, 02:22 PM   #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I'm still convinced that it will end up being close. Obama wins 51% to 48%.
That's pretty close to what 538 has. Even given those numbers Obama can still get 330+ electoral votes. The current 538 totals are Obama 51.1- Romney 47.7.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 09-21-2012, 02:38 PM   #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
If one candidate is significantly ahead in relatively few states, while another is only moderately ahead but in many more states, the second candidate may very well win, even if the first has more actual votes.
That's what happened to Gore. 538 only gives about a 5% chance of that happening. 538 gives Obama double the chance of winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college, about 3.4% of scenarios to 1.4% of scenarios against Romney.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
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Old 09-21-2012, 03:16 PM   #189
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If you divide the electoral votes by the number of states for Mitt it averages about 9 for 22 states. And if they are overwhelmingly in favor of Mitt then the national average could be close but the nearly average 15 for 22 states electoral average for Obama outdistances Mitt with a large number in Electoral College.
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Old 09-21-2012, 08:42 PM   #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tiptap View Post
If you divide the electoral votes by the number of states for Mitt it averages about 9 for 22 states. And if they are overwhelmingly in favor of Mitt then the national average could be close but the nearly average 15 for 22 states electoral average for Obama outdistances Mitt with a large number in Electoral College.
If its like Bush's loss in the popular vote, that was built entirely on huge differences in New York and California. Gore won those state by more than 2 million votes, but the difference in the popular vote was around 500K.

Today's update extends the Obama lead to a 76.9% chance of victory. Romney's gaffes are catching up to him. He better not start sweating or the spray tan will start running.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
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Old 09-21-2012, 08:43 PM   #191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
If its like Bush's loss in the popular vote, that was built entirely on huge differences in New York and California. Gore won those state by more than 2 million votes, but the difference in the popular vote was around 500K.

Today's update extends the Obama lead to a 76.9% chance of victory. Romney's gaffes are catching up to him. He better not start sweating or the spray tan will start running.
Oompa loompa oompity doo,
what's going to happen when your gaffes catch up to you
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Old 09-22-2012, 07:32 PM   #192
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Numbers climbing back up as the convention bump for Obama is said to be less a factor. Today 538 gives Obama a 77.5% chance of winning the election. In the swing states, NC is moving to Romney, while Ohio, Iowa and Virginia move towards Obama. Colorado and Florida continue to be states that are less certain of Obama victories. Romney has only 45 days to turn this around.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
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Old 09-23-2012, 06:37 PM   #193
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Numbers in for today still inching towards Obama who now has a 77.6% chance of winning. To look at the state races:

States where Obama has 80% win chance- 253 EC
States where Obama has 75% win chance- 275 EC
States where Obama has 70% win chance- 294 EC
States where Obama has 60% win chance- 303 EC
States where Obama is leading- 332 EC
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
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Old 09-25-2012, 10:30 AM   #194
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Old 09-25-2012, 08:30 PM   #195
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Big jump today as it becomes clearer that the Obama lead can no longer be tied to a convention bounce. 538 now gives Obama a 79.7% chance of winning. They put the projected popular vote at 51.2%-47.7%. Ohio is 79% projected to go Obama.

They also have a new senate tab which projects the Democrats have a 79.9% chance of holding their majority and average number of seats at 52.0. There are tossups in Nevada (slight lean R 52%), Montana (slight lean R 58%), and Indiana (slight lean D 51%).
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
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